Archive for January 26th, 2011

Alpha India Indices - Pending positivity for NIFTY VIX

1: 0.618 FIB holds
2: The move down lacks a clear five impulsive look.
3: Price above psychological 20
4: Rieki positive
5: Above 21.5 uptrend confirmed on Nifty VIX and down on Nifty

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DAX nears key 7,200

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.


Introducing JISEKI Minor

This week we are introducing JISEKI minor rankings. These rankings will suggest top performers and underperformers for a minor (for a few trading days). The idea of performance cycle suggests that top outperformers should underperform and vice versa irrespective of any holding period. Looking at two degrees of time frame can assist in forming short term trading outlook on various currency pairs.

The latest Alpha forex juxtaposes both minor and intermediate rankings.  Because the holding period is different there is a high chance that top performers on minor (few trading days) might be different from the ones on a larger intermediate (multi week time frames). In case markets are ready for inflexion there is a high chance that both minor and intermediate Jiseki might also coincide.

Though Minor Jiseki has all of CAD, GBP and EUR at highs, GBPUSD is a top performer on both minor and intermediate. This suggests that GBPUSD is the most likely to potentially underperform ahead. While Pro Share Dollar Bullish fund is the worst performer and hence the best potential outperformer for both a few trading days and multi weeks ahead. We have also carried the Elliott, technical updates and Rieki performance cycles to confirm our view.

Enjoy the latest report

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Time Analytics research products.

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti covers Forex in her weekly columns.


What’s happening to Egypt?

We ranked the MENA performance before Egypt was in the news and for the last 12 months Egypt CCSI was one of the worst performing markets of the region.

For us at Orpheus markets tend to make solid bottoms under extreme negative news and this is what seems to be happening in Egypt, worst news is taking the markets lower into a multiyear bottom.

News also has a tendency to time itself just like prices. We have illustrated the price curve illustrating the order in prices. There are extreme outperformers and underperformers at the same time and this curved order can be seen across asset classes and across time, a similar exponential curve (positive and negative). Now that Egypt is at the lower end of the curve, a reversal should not be far away.

CCSI Egypt is already down 61.8% from its top and another 15% lower takes it to 78.6% retracements from the top. Timing a bottom is tough but RSI momentums are non confirming for a few months now. Sub 1,285 historical lows prices could move down till 1,000. At this stage we expect 1,285 to hold. We will review if 1,285 breaks.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


Why should you buy COMI?

We are focusing on COMI because it’s one of the worst performer among our global coverage of 1000 assets. Despite being the worst performer the stocks technical structure does not look negative. It’s still above key Fibonacci supports, has RSI momentum positive and looks like an ending corrective countertrend that should find support and reverse soon.

This positive case on COMI suggest many things. One that any negativity on the local market maybe of an intermediate multi week degree and not more, because a secular bear market can break down all accumulating positive looking price structures. We also don’t expect a secular fall in a stock that is one among the worst performers.

Even fundamentally we are talking about a profit making enterprise. The PE multiple near 10 and Price to Book is below 2. This suggests that we have a real value stock. Rieki performance cycle view is also positive. The only problem seems the stocks small capitalization (near 60 Million dollars).

We also compared the stock to BETXT. At this stage BETXT has already outperformed COMI by 35% since Jun 2010. We are expecting a reversal soon on both Rieki pair performance cycle and on the relative performance (black line Fig.3).

Enjoy the latest Alpha Mid Economic

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.