Archive for January, 2011

Global Intermarket Conference (Pictures)

The Global Intermarket Conference
Budapest
Saturday, January 15th, 2011

As markets get integrated and opportunities shift from one asset to the other, intermarket analysis gains prominence among market participants. At a time when Gold is at an all time high and interest rates at an all time low, one wonders whether we are in inflationary or deflationary times. Agro asset prices have started to rise, Indian markets are at a new high, some European economies are struggling with a debt crisis, Oil continues to stay below dollar 100, pinpointing performance and isolating alpha gets tougher. The conference will address the area of intermarket perspective between global assets attempting to identify outperforming sectors in 2011.

Are times ahead inflationary or deflationary?
Is it time to hold cash or tangible assets?
Will Gold continue to outperform global equity?
Will China boost the global economy?
Will Oil reach $100 in 2011?
What are the driving stories for Central Eastern Europe?
Is EUR DOLLAR parity a reality?
What will be the top sectors of growth?
Will financial sector outperform or underperform?

How to decode intermarket cyclicality?

Presentations

Cost of MoneyCOST.OF.MONEY
Outlook 2011MARKETS OUTLOOK FOR 2011
The Performance CycleTHE PERFORMANCE CYCLE
How to overcome behavioral errorsBEHAVIOURAL FINANCE AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

For registration and further details visit the Market Technicians Association.



Sensex vs. Dow

Emerging equity is an active asset class. Money flows in and out of them actively. No wonder intermarket analysis between Sensex and Dow assumes an important role.

This week we are looking at Sensex, Dow and their intermarket relationship. Sensex is testing its previous low. The more prices test their previous supports successively, the more likely to break. Even if look at the current formation as an Elliott C wave and not a 3 wave down (Fig. 3), next immediate supports like at 18,000. Weekly momentum and negative Rieki performance cycle (Fig. 1) confirm our negative case.

What happens from Sensex 18,000 is the tricky part. Whether that’s all the correction we will have on India? Or is there more to come? …

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Alpha India EE - HCL Technologies

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


TGN VS. TEL VS. DAFOR VS. XNG

Transelectrica (TEL) is a 472 million dollar market cap Electric Utility, Transgaz (TGN) is a 1 billion dollar market cap Natural gas utility which also features in GICS oil & gas storage & transportation sector, Dafora is a Romanian small cap stock in Oil and Gas drilling and XNG is the AMEX Natural Gas Index. What do they all have in common? All these components are from the late economic sector. How do we find out which one is better for the months ahead and which one to hold and which one to reduce? Is this not what stock picking is about?

Rieki performance cycles have a simple objective answer for this query. Rieki can not only individually illustrate performance cycles of individual assets, but also illustrate seasonality in a pair. If you want to know which component of the pair should outperform the other you can use Rieki. And the best part is that you can make any pair combination.

In Fig. 1 we have illustrated the Rieki pair performance cycle between TGN and TEL. As one can see the cycle (red dashed) line was up from Jan 2010 till Jan 2011. This mean that TGN outperformed TEL by  almost 30% in the year. And now the Rieki cycle for the pair has turned down and also the relative performance line has broken a key trendline support. This means it’s time for TGN to underperform TEL. Since start of the year,  TGN has already underperformed TEL by 15% and we think there is more to come.

Now since both TGN and TEL are the absolute best performers and are overstretched, we need a stock that should outperform TEL. We paired Dafora with TEL (Fig 2.). What did we observe? We saw that after underperforming TEL by nearly 80%, Dafora – TEL Rieki is turning up. When this happens Tel should underperform Dafora. And where does Dafora stand globally? We paired it with AMEX natural gas index XNG. What did we observe?  XNG – Dafora Rieki is reversing. This means Dafora is potentially the best to accumulate while for TEL and TGN, the Rieki stock filter suggests reduce.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


Alpha India LE - Metals

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Copper vs. Dollar

In this latest report of Alpha Global we have looked at a combination of commodities with forex pairs. The charts below illustrate the Rieki performance cycle of Comex Spot Copper (.BRHG) and PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). The Dollar Index Bullish Fund Rieki has not reversed yet and is still bottoming while Copper Spot is rising and has reached the top 100 performance among our global coverage. Neither Copper or Dollar have shown any indication of reversal. However, if we extend the metals case to silver and gold, we observe that performance Rieki has already reversed. A similar exhaustion case is visible from Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar. We need further price confirmation on dollar and the commodity complex to look for a primary reversal. But the intermediate reversal seem to be in. We have illustrated Crude, EURUSD Elliott counts and key levels.

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.


Sensex, BSE500, VIX and INR RIEKI

Sensex and BSE 500 Rieki structures look topping, suggesting a pending underperformance of the broad market. NIFTY VIX and INR Futures Rieki structures are positive, suggesting an ongoing outperformance of the respective assets.

TICKS.GLOBAL covers DOW, GOLD, SILVER, OIL, EURUSD, DAX and other global assets and futures on an Intra day basis. The reports are published through a self refreshing webpage. TICKS.GLOBAL is a web based service it is only available through the Orpheus Site.


The Pharma Bull

There are many ways to look at a multi year bull market. One way is to look at the defensive sector like pharmaceuticals. How the defensive sector should perform can suggest if we are in a sustainable multi year positivity or not.

Though both ATB and BIO are overstretched on multi week RSI momentum, on Rieki performance cycles both of the stocks are emerging out from worst ranking performance. This means that even if the markets fall from here (preferred scenario) pharma majors should hold supports well and should outperform the market.

Above this the structure on the pharma majors look like an ongoing corrective countertrend that should continue to move sideways for a few weeks or a month or two before resolving higher to new highs. This suggests that the large bull market case for Romania is intact and falls should be used to accumulate these two blue chips and other value picks.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Romania Indices

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


Alpha India Indices - Nifty Rieki ready to reverse

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


SSEC. Preferred keeps us on the bullish side

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.