Archive for February 1st, 2011

Alpha India ME - Long portfolio review

The long portfolio we started over a month ago is down 12%. However, we continue to hold the stocks as we still see the current structures as bottoming. The two stocks which fell the most , Housing Development and Infra and Reliance Infra are completing a minor A-B-C correction down and seem to be in the last fifth of the C (slide 2). We added NTPC, which is completing a second corrective wave down and could push higher from current supports. The NTPC case, along with Punj Lloyd, Reliance Industries and Reliance Power are updated on slide 3. Suzlon is still above previous supports near 46.

We made some changes in our short portfolio also. We closed Nifty and Tata Motors, we shorted Nsebank and Bank of Baroda, one lot each and we increased our exposure on HCL Tech with one lot.

The market bias is still negative. However, we expect Nifty to find some support soon near previous lows at 5,350 levels. The oversold daily RSI momentum confirms our view. The best performing sector is BSE Consumer Durables, which fell 5.68% from the beginning of the year. The worst sector is BSE Realty which fell 21.97%.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Nifty Futures heads to 5,400 support

Prices are reaching conventional key supports. These are the last supports standing for Nifty Futures.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.