Archive for February 7th, 2011

The Indian Sensex Projection

Now that prices have reached our anticipated target at 18,000 and we are heading into event risk or event volatility, it makes sense to review the complex unwinding Sensex price structure. If 18,000 is broken Sensex is just going to slide lower into 13,500. However, this seems very obvious, as a support breaks and prices fall to a new lower support. For a technician the harder task is to comprehend what is not obvious. Putting in other words to understand where the surprise is going to come from is as important as the path of least resistance.

This is why an alternate view is significant just like the Elliott preferred view. So now that we have stated the preferred view. Let’s discuss the eventuality that Sensex 18,000-17,500 holds for a multi week period. In such a situation we have to look at the larger picture. The larger picture for us, as we mentioned prior in ‘The Primary Corrective’ is a cycle degree flat. We think the large B primary is over and now we are in a C down. Remember it’s the C waves that are the fastest and most damaging. There are advantages of a C also, it’s a trending move compared to the complexity and overlapping behavior of A and B waves. Finally we just might get to see some trend, after the complexity and deviousness of B primary wave from Mar 2009…

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This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

The short portfolio - India

The short portfolio is up 8% since the beginning of the year. The current shorts are Sun, Mini Nifty, Bank of Baroda, HCL Tech, Nsebank and Orchid. BSE Healthcare, CNXIT and Nsebank remain top performers among the Indian sectors.

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Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Time Fractals in market structure and econometrics journal

Capital Markets Market Microstructure eJournal SSRN

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Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers Time Cycles on global assets and forecasts. The report uses alternative research techniques to study emerging markets and carries updates on behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.