Alpha Global Indices - Sensex. Worst case scenario

While over the short-term SENSEX should see a minor bounce from around 17,300 levels, the overall picture looks grim. We have initially stated that the current decline is a primary degree zigzag that could retest 16,000. Well, checking the charts since 1993 would bring additional information: the whole 17 years price action seems to be a whole cycle degree impulse (with a truncation on its circle 5 subdivision). This means that we could be in a much larger corrective pattern than initially assumed. And this would be a cycle degree zigzag to 9,300 or even 9,100. Keep in mind though, that this is just a worst case scenario, we are not necessarily counting on that, at least not yet.

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Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.


3 Responses to “Alpha Global Indices - Sensex. Worst case scenario”

  1. dinesh rawat says:

    Dear Dan-Andrei Rusu, I am keen learner and follower of Elliott wave principle, but sometimes i totally get confused with views express by you and the other Elliott wave principle experts like ‘vivek patil’ and ‘sushil kedia’ in India. It looks like you and so called wave experts themselves confuse about wave status and juncture of Sensex. One thing I want to suggest you, please don’t make guess because opinion doesn’t make markets, markets make opinion. surely, you are also going to change your wave count if market will turn other way.please, reply, it is important to me. thanks, Dinesh

    • Domnita says:

      Dear Dinesh, 16,500 is achievable on Sensex. And what you are calling confusion could also be the reader’s inability to accept a low probability, dramatically negative scenario. The author has called it worst case and is comprehending possible and probable price structures for you. For Elliott the price structure today dictates opinion tomorrow and not vice versa. If you visit our free blogs, we advise you to brave up and contain your biases. If you would assume the illustrated structure was not a multi decade chart but a multi minute move. The only thing that will change then is your fear to accept a potential crash in form a zig zag. Please ignore the dramatic case of Mr. Rusu, look at the 16,500 case if that makes you feel good :-) . And Please read ‘The Sensex Projection’, if 16,500 does not break we are ready for a renewed bull. Don’t let the scenarios confuse you, wait for price confirmation.

      Orpheus Research

  2. Jatin Soni says:

    what if the low from march 09′ to high of jan 11′ was an impulse of larger wave 3 ? then we can be in for a 3 - 3 - 5 flat ?
    first set of 3 could then be over ??

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