Archive for April 5th, 2011

Alpha India ME - The Punj Lloyd case

Prices are retesting previous fourth and key Fibonacci resistances near 76 levels. A break here would suggest further minor positivity till 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels and trend channel resistances at 90.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


India vs. World

We talked about Sensex underperforming Dow on 24 January (Sensex vs. Dow), the same happened. We don’t think that that Sensex has done underperforming against Dow just yet. A 6 month performance comparison of global indices vs. India still places most Indian sector indices much higher among their global peer. The max performance difference possible between two indices is 100.

As one can see S&P 100 and French CAC are still 60% lower in rankings compared to Nifty. Italian MIB is almost 70% lower compared to Nifty. These performance differences become larger when we compare global Indices with Indian Sectoral Indices. BSE Capital Goods sector Index is 80% higher in performance compared to S&P 100 and 67% higher compared to DOW. According to this grid there is lot of catch up India has to do still before it starts to outperform again.

We went for beer to celebrate the Indian victor over Pakistan in the cricket semi finals on 30 Mar. A gentleman from Hoshiarpur (Punjab) made a smart forecast after India was through to the final. He said, “Tomorrow the Sensex will open up in the morning move up 100 points and then close 100 points lower, making an intraday swing of 300 points.”

What happened? …

This article is written for Business Standard

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

 


The inverted silver


We have inverted silver to have a better look in terms of what the exponential commodity is up to. The primary structure (Fig 1) suggests that prices are completing a 5 primary which equals 1.618 times of the 3 primary at current levels. Though we have no reversal signs yet, the climactic look suggests that we are in for an extreme which is not going to end very well for a section of market which likes extreme trading.

Fig 2 also illustrates a daily completing five legged structure. There is no reversal signal on Silver yet, but considering we are heading into a key price projection it’s imperative to understand the price structure and look for any potential reversals.

Prices have started to form a potential daily Key Reversal bar today (Fig 3). However, the subminor move lower does not look like a five wave structure (Fig 4). A break at 37.6 channel highs would suggest that we are in for a push till 37-36 and then a final push back to 40-41 when the current formation should reverse for at least a few weeks. It’s only then can we look for a large primary reversal. At this stage it’s best to wait for price confirmation and trade low exposure. Trading extremes is not for everyone.

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This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.