Archive for May, 2011

Mid Economic worst performers: BHEL and Punj Lloyd

Today’s Alpha India report carries technical cases on two of the worst performers of the Indian Mid Economic sector, BHEL and Punj Lloyd. Both of the stocks have bottoming intermediate structures and should outperform in the next weeks.

BHEL Daily
Prices retested previous minor lows at 1,900 levels. The structure looks like a completed W-X-Y-X-Z complex correction down.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


The Time Proportion (Indian Nifty)

Looking at ‘Time proportion’ in market or price data is a very old exercise, Benner did it in 1884, Elliott did it in 1934, Frost, Hamilton, Russell, Prechter and a host of other technicians have done it over years. I can count more than 10 time cyclists who also looked at market and economic data and time proportion. Richard Mogey and Bill Meridian have been doing this exercise for decades.
All of the above practitioners know that there are many cycles acting at a certain time so many of them look at time proportion rather than equality. There is also a school which looks at equal cycles. I belong to the time proportionally school of thought which considers time equality as a subset of time proportionality.

Today we have carried a case of studying the time difference in days…

This article was written for ATMA.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.


VIX reverses again. This time for real?

The American fear gauge index VIX reverses again. This time could be for real. VIX has been a low ranking rather worst ranking performer for quite some time now. And as the rule of performance cycle goes, the worst performer will surprise. This means that VIX should rise and when it rises the fear should increase. The left hand scale carries 3 Jiseki cycles of (1month, 2month and 3 months) while the Right Hand Side scale are the actual VIX prices. This is some signal we won’t like to miss, considering our preferred view on global indices still look at a topping global market. The latest CEE, Global Alpha Indices carries the Russell 2000 broad index Jiseki cycle. Broad market cues are important.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.


CEE, Global Indices - Rankings and Jiseki

 

Strange as it may seem on the multi week 3 monthly rankings IRTS Moscow, Bucharest BET, Hungarian BUX and Romanian BETFI are still above 50% percentile rankings and among the top rankers among top 20 global and regional indices. This means that our view on an underperforming Romania could indeed be correct. The latest Alpha carries the intermediate multi week Jiseki updates for the respective indices.
There is another aspect that emerges out from the current numeric rankings. Zurich SMA, Prague PX, CEE Index, European Stoxx, Shanghai Index has rising Jiseki cycles. This suggests that there is still a lot of buying support for global indices and markets. This confirms our view that any fall now is a correction in the large bull market of multiple years well into 2013-2014.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Indices.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.


Negative bias for the Indian market

Our negative market bias for the Indian market remains unchanged as NIFTY is retesting 5,500 resistances. We have several reasons to hold on to our preferred negative view:

First, the price structure on NIFTY looks like an ongoing (W)-(X)-(Y) correction down. Prices seem to be in the third wave of the (Y) wave down which should at least retest previous lows at 5,200 levels. The daily RSI momentum is over reactive up, while the weekly RSI momentum broke 40 supports and confirms our view (slide 2). Sensex and BSE 500 show similar price and momentum structures (slides 5 and 6).

Second, the Jiseki cycles made a negative crossover as prices completed the (X) wave up and point lower, while the larger grey cycle is down ever since the November 2010 negative reversal (slide 3).

Third, XEN (Indian rupee index) broke intermediate trend channel supports and the structure points lower till previous lows at 217 levels (slide 4). A negative XEN suggests negativity for the overall market.

Fourth, we carried the Jiseki ranking of the Indian indices and 13 out of 17 fall in the higher range of the rankings (above 50%), suggesting that most of the sectors are relatively outperforming and are potential underperformers for the next few weeks.

We expect NIFTY to hold 5,500 resistances. Our minor targets lie at 5,200-5,000 levels or even lower at 4,800. Above 5,500 we review.

Enjoy the latest Alpha India Indices.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Dollar Jiseki Turns Up

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.


Yes Bank and Corporation Bank

We continue our analysis of the best potential shorts list with two best performer Banking stocks, Yes Bank and Corporation Bank.

We plotted the best and worst performers of the Indian Early Economic sector (best ranked above 80%, worst ranked sub 20% - slide 1) and came up with a list of 25 best performers and 8 worst performers. 12 out of the 25 best potential shorts are Banking stocks.

Yes Bank and Corporation Bank are both ranked above 90% and seem to be pushing lower from these extreme rankings. The Jiseki cycles are negative in both cases and confirm further downmove on the price structure (slides 3 and 5). Yes Bank made a head and shoulders continuation pattern and is now retesting the neckline at 300(slide 2). The intermediate structure looks like a head and shoulders reversal for both stocks. Corporation Bank has already broken the neckline and looks ready to break previous minor supports also at 500 levels. Both stocks have over reactive daily RSI structures and should push lower from current levels.

The market bias remains negative as NIFTY is retesting true trendline resistances near 5,500 levels. Sub respective resistances we continue to look lower till our first target at 5,200.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Tisco and Hindalco. Anticipated and happened

Today’s Alpha India report carries two anticipated and happened cases on Tisco and Hindalco, best performers of the BSE Metals sector. Both price structures broke neckline supports as anticipated, validating the head and shoulders reversals. Sub 580 levels in the case of Tisco and 200 levels in the case of Hindalco our preferred negative view remains valid.

The market bias remains negative as NIFTY is retesting the true trendline at 5,400-5,450 levels, while the daily RSI is also retesting 40. We also carried the best and worst performers of the Indian Late Economic sector. The best performers are the ones ranked above 80%, while the worst ones are ranked sub 30%.

Tisco Daily. Anticipated and happened

Hindalco Daily. Anticipated and happened

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


The Sector Dilution

I was recently asked a query whether LinkedIn IPO success had some sentiment cues. This is what I had to say “Demarcations get weaker between Technology and retail consumption when we talk about social networks. These networks are here to stay and maybe become more like staple than discretionary.“

From an intermarket perspective we always had the conglomerates tougher to analyze, which sector they belonged too and how they were going to witness sector rotation. Now I think these social network IPO’s thin the line further between what’s Information Technology and what’s staple. If the “knowledge worker” uses social networks as way to communicate and internet connectivity becomes as important as the food we eat, how far is the new IT from staples?

Well these are the questions I am asking. Maybe John Murphy and Sam Stovall have the answers. But for me classic conventional sector rotation is facing a challenge.

Coming back to something more conventional, the chart below is the Nifty plotted along with the relative performance ratio line between Nifty vs. CNXIT. Whenever CNXIT underperformed NIFTY and hit the primary trendline support, NIFTY rose. Though at this point the ratio line is pointing lower, it would be good to see how the previous primary trendline supports would behave this time. Will the trendline supports push NIFTY up again or will the trendline break?

If the trendline breaks, Nifty will also break down and head to 5,000. There is another pattern that we see here. The relative performance ratio line makes a classic head and shoulder in time. First we had a 2 yr cycle (shoulder), followed by a 3 yr larger cycle (head). Now a 2 yr cycle (shoulder) takes us well into the end of 2011. Even the most conservative estimated suggest that even if the primary trendline does not break we should see CNXIT outperforming NIFTY well into Q3. This is not very good news for the market, from what has happened historically.

Our preferred view remains negative. IPO success and renewed confidence sets us up better for a bull trap going ahead (At least for intermediary time frame). We are still primary bulls. Let’s see if the above conventional intermarket relationship works.

This article was written for ATMA.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


SETI. Below 1,030 it's all over for the bulls

SETI.DAILY BELOW 1,030 IT’S ALL OVER FOR THE BULLS
We have reviewed the preferred bullish count and concluded that wave 5 ended in a truncation (circle v did not exceed circle iii). Hence we’ve abandoned the idea of another price extreme at 1,165. This scenario gets confirmed at a drop below 1,030. Till then we shall keep an alternate bullish scenario (which is in fact the previous preferred count).

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.