Archive for June, 2011

The Intermarket Utility

Things keep changing as times change. Conventional intermarket tells us a few characteristics about utility sectors. First it belongs to the late economic sector. Second bond prices and utility stocks usually trend in the same direction. They peaked together in late 1993 and bottomed together in late. In a climate of falling bond prices, utilities are often among the stocks that suffer the greatest damage.

Third, because of the perceived utility and bond link, even utilities are assumed to have a connection with commodities like copper. At the start of 1995, the peak in copper prices coincided with an important bottom in bond prices. The CRB/bond ratio turned up in late 1993 and continued to rise for almost a year. This was during a period of time when copper stocks rose and utilities tumbled.

 

Visiting markets from 1995 onwards…

 

This article was written for ATMA.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

 


BSEOIL Key Reversal

BSEOIL Weekly. Prices made a weekly Key Reversal bar (KR) near key Fibonacci confluence supports at psychological 9,000 levels, suggesting further minor positivity ahead.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Punj Lloyd Inverted

The daily structure looks like an inverted head and shoulders reversal pattern. Prices seem ready to break the neckline near 70 levels and confirm further positivity ahead.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Foundation of Cycles on DOW

Source: Foundation of Cycles


NIFTY. Immediate resistances lie at 5,600

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Is the Indian auto reversal for real?

To understand a primary degree reversal we need a reversal on most of the early economic sector indices. We discussed the CNX-IT last week. This week we are revisiting the auto sector. Agreed there is a hammer reversal bar on auto sector. This is a positive sign. However, the hammer reversal does not come from a key primary support and also the 0.382 Fibonacci supports lie lower near 7,500.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

 


The BSEOIL special

Investors have an ability to ignore, be indifferent and undervalue assets that don’t move. They also have an ability to comprehend risk and value things at a portfolio level. One of the key human errors according to behavioral finance is that investors don’t diversify enough. In this context if we have to pick up one late economic sector that has fallen off the human scanning greed it is the BSEOIL and Energy sector.

To read the special report on BSEOIL download the report from the Orpheus store.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

 


The Wind Jiseki

 

David Aronson has written a book to convince technicians to get more objective about their indicators and rules. Evidence based Technical Analysis is the future. Alongside his attempt to prove that charting is subjectivity, he also mentions how technicians understanding of the markets help them to identify and create indicators. In the concluding chapter of the book he also mentions how the need to differentiate one extreme from another could be the differentiating edge between two strategies. He also talks about how complex conditions have a higher workability than simple conditions. Complex conditions could be explained as two or more conditions (filters) for the rule.

This week we are taking you through a case which includes Suzlon, Wind Energy Index and Nifty. Orpheus performance cycles are built on complex conditions. First we have a group, then we have a ranking condition, then we have ranking conditions on different time frames, after this we look for extremes and then of course the Jiseki Cycle whether it has turned up or not. Keeping this in mind we have Suzlon and wind energy both filtered out as potential outperformers. And because of the fact that Jiseki is designed to buy extreme losers that are reversing, Jiseki cycles become a contrarian play with an objective signal linked with it. As you can see Jiseki cycles are already positive on Suzlon and Wind and the cycles are actually positive and suggesting buy.

Conventional technical pattern watching…

This article was written for ATMA.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


The CNXIT special

Is CNXIT ready to reverse?

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


The Quarter View

Now that prices broke key anticipated supports and are reaching the end of Q2 2011m, it makes sense to go a bit longer term and re-estimate the trend. To read more subscribe to Alpha.

 

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.