Archive for August, 2011

Anticipated Bovespa happened

BVSP.DAILY MAJOR REVERSAL AHEAD SHOULD CUT PRICES BACK TO 60,000 ALPHA.GLOBAL.INDICES.171110


After all it marked new highs, but we still believe the major reversal is near. It is a matter of time: the rally from May lows could develop asan ending diagonal pattern (highlighted) – which means we have just topped; or could become a regular impulsive wave – which meansthat prices may reach 77,000-90,000 before turning. Watch 66,000 key supports for hint: a break below 66,000 would confirm the bearishscenario that aims sub-60,000.

BVSP.DAILY HAPPENED

The major trend reversal we’ve been anticipating in Nov 2010 took place and prices not only dropped to 60,000 but lost 36%, reaching50,000 psychological levels.

SENSEX.DAILY THE TARGETS WE’VE PROVIDED IN FEB ARE FINALLY HIT

Though we had reviewed our count of the 2010-2011 decline several times, the targets we provided at the beginning of the year at 16,000were eventually achieved.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Global: Commodities, Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Indices.

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.

 


Agro Jiseki Cycles

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. The current agro complex comparison puts Cotton and Sugar at the top and sesame and wheat at the bottom near 10%. Such low percentile rankings make Sesame and Wheat attractive holds. To latest report carries the Jiseki cycles for the agro assets with targets and projections for wheat, soybeans, coffee, sesame and coriander.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Global: Commodities, Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Indices

 


Major Indian indices bounce from key supports

NIFTY 60MIN. Above previous fourth resistances at 4,950 we expect further subminor positivity ahead.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Real Estate worst performers: DLF and DB Realty

We illustrated here the Jiseki ranking of the CNX Realty components. As you can see, 8 out of 9 stocks fall in the lower half of the ranking (sub 50%), Unitech being the only best performer (above 95% rankings). Today’s report carries technical cases and Jiseki cycles of two of the real estate worst performers, DLF (slide 2) and DB Realty (slide 3).

DLF Weekly. Prices seem to be completing a 3-3-3 corrective structure down. Immediate supports lie at 170-150 levels. The daily RSI momentum is retesting 30 supports.

DB Realty Weekly. The primary structure looks like a completing impulsive C circle wave down. Prices are reaching key supports at 40 levels in an exhausting final fifth wave down.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


JSW STEEL and SAIL Jiseki cycles

Both Jiseki cycle structures turned negative along with the price reversal and continued to push lower from 90% extreme rankings.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


NIFTY preferred view remains bottoming

NIFTY Daily. Prices continue to hold anticipated supports at 4,800 levels where (W)=(Y). The daily RSI momentum looks ready to push above 30 levels and confirm further minor positivity from current supports. Our preferred view remains bottoming.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


PUNJ LLOYD and L&T

PUNJ LLOYD is one of the worst performer Indian stocks. As you can see on the chart below, the Jiseki cycles are still bottoming sub 10% rankings, suggesting a potential positive reversal soon. The price structure also looks like a potential double bottom reversal (slide 2). As long as previous lows near 55 levels hold, we remain positive on the stock.

PUNJ LLOYD Weekly. The intermediate structure looks like a potential double bottom reversal formation with neckline resistances near 80 levels. The weekly RSI momentum is also non-confirming and sustains our case.

L&T Weekly. Prices reached key primary supports at 1,550 levels. The preferred view sees the current structure as a completing intermediate correction which should hold respective supports. Alternate, on the other hand, sees the current formation as a potential head and shoulders reversal which could push prices lower till 1,400-1,100 supports. However, this remains a low probability scenario for now.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


PUNJ LLOYD and L&T

PUNJ LLOYD is one of the worst performer Indian stocks. As you can see on the chart below, the Jiseki cycles are still bottoming sub 10% rankings, suggesting a potential positive reversal soon. The price structure also looks like a potential double bottom reversal (slide 2). As long as previous lows near 55 levels hold, we remain positive on the stock.

PUNJ LLOYD Weekly. The intermediate structure looks like a potential double bottom reversal formation with neckline resistances near 80 levels. The weekly RSI momentum is also non-confirming and sustains our case.

L&T Weekly. Prices reached key primary supports at 1,550 levels. The preferred view sees the current structure as a completing intermediate correction which should hold respective supports. Alternate, on the other hand, sees the current formation as a potential head and shoulders reversal which could push prices lower till 1,400-1,100 supports. However, this remains a low probability scenario for now.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Alpha India Indices - Preferred remains a completing (W)-(X)-(Y)

CNXIT Daily. Prices broke our highlighted supports near psychological 6,000 levels and rushed lower till next confluence supports near 5,000. However, the intermediate structure still looks like a complex correction which should complete soon.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Technology best performers: CMC and Mphasis

CMC Weekly. The intermediate structure looks like a completing sideways (W)-(X)-(Y) correction. Prices reached key confluence supports at psychological 900 levels (key Fibonacci projection, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, previous lows and trend channel support).

Mphasis Weekly. The intermediate structure looks like a completing (W)-(X)-(Y) correction down. Prices reached a key support area at 350-300 levels (key Fibonacci projections, 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and trend channel supports).

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.