Archive for September, 2011

The New Normal

 

The “New Normal” was an innocuous quote by Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco  suggesting an uncertain future, sluggish growth, international discord, low return on capital etc. Such is the reach of media that ‘The New Normal’ has become a buzz word. It signifies the times we live in. It talks about new change, a new time. But is “the New Normal’ old wine in new bottle addressing “This time it’s different or this time it’s definitely bad”.
Social Networks are the new normal. I juggle between my offline and online networks. We are sharing so much information that we can’t really differentiate real information from noise. On one hand it might cause disorientation and on the other hand identifying patterns in presumed random chaos might be the only way out. Is it really that uncertain? Or do we lack big picture tools?

During the recent trip to a MTA (Market Technician’s association) chapter meeting in Budapest, a colleague mentioned how DAX was hard to trade and behaved like a Struţocămila, a special Romanian term describing an animal with features of both Ostrich and camel. His point was the DAX was…

This article was written for Business Standard

To read this article and for regular updates on behavioral finance, performance cycles and market forecasts subscribe to Orpheus Research Time Triads Update.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

 


Best performer Indian metal stocks

The chart below illustrates the ranking of the top three best performer Indian metal stocks among the CNX 500 stocks. These are JINDAL STEEL, BHUSAN STEEL and SESA GOA.

Today’s Alpha India report carries technical cases on the respective metal stocks. The market bias is positive for the day, as we are looking at an ongoing correction up. However, the correction should complete near the highlighted resistances at 5,200 levels, after which the preferred intermediate negativity should continue.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Masoor ready to move 50% higher


The latest report carries anticipated and happened case on Masoor and other India agro commodities.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. The current agro complex comparison puts Cotton and Sugar at the top and sesame and wheat at the bottom near 10%. Such low percentile rankings make Sesame and Wheat attractive holds. To latest report carries the Jiseki cycles for the agro assets with targets and projections for wheat, soybeans, coffee, sesame and coriander.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Global: Commodities, Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Indices

 


S&P 500 ready for the next leg down

S&P500.60MIN TWO DIFFERENT COUNTS SUGGESTING ANOTHER SERIES OF NEW LOWS AT 1,020. The anticipated resistance at 1,223 pushed prices down, retesting 1,100. However, we are still above the 1,020 targets we’ve been mentioning for more than a month now. The preferred count sees one more push up to 1,223-1,243 and then a sharp decline to the mentioned levels.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.


The L&T Short

The latest Alpha India report is a L&T special with rankings, targets, CNX 500 rankings, Jiseki cycles, sector view and technical cases.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

 


Happy Birthday Orpheus

We thank all our readers and members for a great 6 years. We enjoyed every bit of it.
Orpheus Team


Revisiting Microfinance

We are working with a group of experts to improve our performance cycles for the microfinance space. The aim is to understand credit risk. Microfinance lenders were criticised for profiteering from unfairly high rates of interest. This made it imperative to review practices, understand the universe of microfinance variables and see if an objective system could be arrived at to assist the sector players.

Though microfinance has a moralistic role of creating social impact, it’s hard to draw the line between profit and a social cause. What happened in Andhra Pradesh with SKS has created a flutter among players. The ‘for profit’ players attempt to walk the tight ‘social cause’ rope. Also, we have an economic cycle that connects consumption patterns, basic demand and economic growth to microfinance. And, a downward economic cycle hurts all finance players, whether micro- or conventional finance.

This is why we took up the challenge to build an industry-wide model for the sector. Microfinance is a bit different compared to conventional finance. On one side are social impact variables like poverty alleviation indicators and, on the other, are financial variables and microfinance institutions that are a part of the listed exchange market. The approach that identifies outliers in a group of stocks could also do the same for social variables. The idea of seasonality is not only about a sector’s good or bad behaviour over a period of time, but also about its quarterly performance in an overall bad year. Our performance cycle approach could also look at social variables like poverty, infant mortality and trends in the health services….

This article was written for Business Standard


NIFTY RSI failure

NIFTY Weekly. The weekly RSI failure suggests further negativity ahead. Our next intermediate targets lie at 4,500-4,000 levels.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


BETFI RSI Failure

RSI is a momentum indicator. It can also be considered a cycle or oscillating indicator because it moves from 0 to 100. But the difference between RSI Cycle and Jiseki Cycle is that Jiseki looks at performance of an asset among a group of assets while RSI Cycle looks at performance of the asset compared to itself. How does the trading signal change when traders look at RSI or Jiseki signals?

RSI gives more signals (overbought and oversold) while Jiseki signals (from overbought to oversold) come very rarely. When signals are less and rare they have less noise and more chance to work. This is why momentum indicators are known for lot of noise and failures. For example the BETFI RSI weekly indicator moved above 30 and then fell back below 30. This is RSI failure, which suggests that BETFI is extremely weak and can head lower to previous lows near 15,000. Whether BETFI breaks 15,000 can’t be confirmed with RSI but with JISEKI cycle signal. We will talk about latest Jiseki signals soon. Keep reading.

Enjoy the latest early economic report.

 

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Romania: Romanian stocks, Indices and currency.


Is BAJAJ AUTO a great sell?

The latest Alpha India report is a BAJAJ AUTO special with rankings, targets, CNX 500 rankings, Jiseki cycles, sector view and technical cases.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.