Archive for November, 2011

Surviving the BEAR

We are now 12 month into a falling market. A market that falls for more than 9 months is called a primary BEAR. But there is interesting statistics that can be observed now. Assuming all the investors were smart and knew Oct 2008 was a smart entry, how many investors do you think are still stuck in the market now that NIFTY has reached Jun 2009 levels? There were 3 smart trends.

First was the one from Oct 2008 till Jun 2009 9 (T1-T3). The Second one was from Mar 2009 to Jun 2009 (T2-T3) and the third one from Oct 2008 till Nov 2010 (T1-T4). The second trend gave the maximum annualized return while the third gave the maximum absolute return. Assuming 20% of the investors are smart to get the complete absolute move, only 10-15% could have the shrewdness to capture maximum annualized return and stay out of the market. This leaves sizeable 55% investors that are still stuck with their investments. And by the way, we assumed 100% of the investing community was invested in Oct 2008, which is a wrong assumption. A correct extrapolation can easily take us to 75% or higher number of market participants that are still stuck with what they bought in Oct 2008. Now this is what a non trending market does. It makes it difficult to survive leading to problems, downsizing, mood lows and murky outlooks.

This special report carries trade ideas, levels, and projections on Nifty, NSEBANK, CNXIT, Lupin, HDFC, Petronet, Axis Bank, Reliance, TCS, SUN, BOB, Havells, Bajaj Auto, Mahindra and Yes Bank.

To read the complete report download it from Orpheus E store.

The article without cases was written for Business Standard

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


The Big Loss

What’s more important, avoiding a loss or making a gain? I asked this question at a recent training. The answer was unequivocal “making a gain”. Coming to look at it, if a market player does not master the art of avoiding a loss, he can make money but not a consistent gain. Over years my teachers, the great books I have read, make me feel that the words I use today are mine. Another very interesting learning I frequently quote is the fact that there are five things in markets. A small gain, a small loss, a big gain, a big loss and no change. The only thing which makes money is when you know how to avoid a big loss. If you mastered the art of not losing big, you are going to make consistent wealth. Unfortunately markets have many hard lessons, and market players are full of impatient learners. We just don’t learn.

Now let me ask you another question? How does one minimize the chances of a big loss, when he buys at a new historical high or a multi year low? This is the same idea we have been writing for nearly 24 months now. Till the time you won’t have the confidence to buy a worst loser, you are never going to avoid the big loss and till the time you are not going to avoid big loss, you will remain away from buying multi year winners.

Another important lesson is the lesson of surprise. An investor, trader or researcher should never forget that markets always have an ability to surprise. So if you are always ready for one, you are more adaptable. And if you are more adaptable, you can do better risk management.

Where does this bring us? This brings us to the fact that could the current Nifty potential bounce become large enough to challenge our 4,000 NIFTY aggressive target? This report looks at India’s worst losers and a case on DLF.

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


Anticipated Sensex Happened

This latest report carries levels, targets, projections for S&P500, EUROSTOXX50, NIKKEI 225, SSEC Shanghai and Indian Sensex. The report answers the following questions.

Is China headed lower like India or is it bottoming?
What are the key levels that define multi-year bull and bear in Japanese Nikkei?
How negative is the EUROSTOXX bear?
Will S&P500 ever reach 1000?

To read the report download it from the Orpheus e-store.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.


The Rupee Connection

Why is Rupee so important for NIFTY investors? Because according to intermarket analysis, currency strengthening should be accompanied by Equity Index strengthening. This means, if RUPEE strengthens Nifty Strengthens and vice versa. Is this a rule? There are no rules in market, just guidelines.

So did it work? This is what we said on 25 Dec 2010. “Markets have enough capability to burn time in stagnation or weakness. The ongoing complex corrective could just persist till H1 2011. What does this tell us about equity? This tells us that Nifty VIX broad basing formation should not be ignored as equity could surprise early 2011. And since we are in larger complex corrective in Indian equity also, performance cycles (relative performance) should be used to reduce out of overstretched sectors and accumulate into best potential outperformers.”

We did a follow up on Rupee on Sep 2011. This is what we said then, “Now if we should project these ratios in time INR could weaken against the USD till Dec 2011 or till Dec 2013 to attain this proportion.”

Now that we have reached Dec 2012, it makes sense to look at INR and extend it’s connection to Indian equity. The current report looks at the NIFTY-INR connection. Is the market in an INR panic?

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


Why is AUTOZONE a top short idea?

…because AZO is a top ranked JISEKI across time frames. Sub 332 this remains short and negative NYSE component that should become the next NETFLIX.

 

AutoZone, Inc. (AutoZone) is a retailer and a distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. As of August 28, 2010, the Company operated 4,389 stores in the United States and Puerto Rico, and 238 in Mexico. Each of its stores carries a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. As of August 28, 2010, in 2,424 of its domestic stores and 173 of its Mexico stores, AutoZone also has a commercial sales program that provides delivery of parts and other products to local, regional and national repair garages, dealers, service stations and public sector accounts. AutoZone also sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software through www.alldata.com. Additionally, it sells automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products through www.autozone.com.

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies


YEN 75 to 150?


This is what we said on 17 Jan 2007

“The USD/YEN ratio line broke the 22 year trend suggesting YEN is ready to move out of inaction and head to potentially below 80 (33% strengthening) for many years. However, before it does that we might see some final bit of dollar surprise strengthening. Technically many factors still favor dollar strengthening in the short term, whether this takes an intermediate strengthening remains to be seen. But if we add the gung ho factor, dollar might just wake up against it.”

What now? Jiseki multi year cycles are topping on (FXY YEN ETF) coming from 60 percentile. The cycles have not reversed yet, but signs of stagnation and topping are there. Even multi week intermediate Jiseki is negative. The current price structure is negative. Below 78, we continue to look at another marginal low till 75 after which the move up first to 94 (up 25%) and then up till 150, this is a 100% move from 75.

What this means for Japan? What these means for the world? What this means for Gold are intermarket thoughts? For us at Orpheus multi year Jiseki is ready to turn after 5 years and with a decade long momentum non confirmation to boot, this could be a better deal than GOLD. A non confirmation of such degree is not going to give small reversals.

The latest Alpha carries a detailed technical case of the YEN, multi year outlook, levels and projections, our historical anticipated and happened case on YEN and some beautiful YEN market fractals.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Forex

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies


Is Blackberry dead?

 

Well when it’s dead everybody would know it and newspapers would write about it. Corporate death, or near death (bankruptcy) is news after all. We humans celebrate everything, growth and decay.

But what is important information knowing when something has fallen to a seven year low or anticipation of the event.

Well Jiseki saw the currently Blackberry seven year lows coming as early as 2008. How was that? Because decay starts at the top not when you reach the bottom. At the bottom you just see the decay. Blackberry was the top percentile Jiseki performer and it was set to underperform. And underperform it did. The Jiseki cycles remain negative and we have no reversal here. When Blackberry resurrects (Jiseki multi week turns up) we will let you know, meanwhile you can ponder about the power of seasonality (TIME).

So should I SELL it?

The prices are oversold and if you look on the arithmetic scale there is nothing left to SELL. But on a log scale (above) prices have broken primary multi year support at 21. These are not good signs.  Above this intermediate multi week Jiseki cycle is still bottoming and has not reversed yet (below).  Sub 21 I won’t hold this stock.

 RIM falls to 7 year low

GOOGLE FINANCE: RIM.TO

Research In Motion Limited (RIM) is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service (SMS), Internet and intranet-based applications and browsing. RIM’s portfolio includes the BlackBerry wireless solution, the RIM Wireless Handheld product line, software development tools and other software and hardware. On June 2, 2010, Harman International sold its software operating systems unit, QNX Software Systems, to the Company. On March 25, 2011, RIM purchased 100% of the shares of a company whose technology is being incorporated into the Company’s developer tools. On April 26, 2011, the Company purchased certain assets of a company whose acquired technologies will be incorporated into the Company’s products. In June 2011, the Company acquired Scoreloop.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products

Coverage Global: S&P500, Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities


ZIG ZAG OR IMPULSE?

This is what we said on 11 May

“The subminor structure, however, does not look ready for a breakdown yet. Most of the sectors seem to be in an ongoing second wave correction with a pending subminor leg up before the third impulse down begins. Even if this last rise takes up a few more days, we are prepared to put our short ideas into action once the price confirmation is here. BSE Consumer Durables, BSE Auto, CNXIT, NSEBANK and BSE Metals are the best sectors according to the daily Jiseki rankings”

We are still looking at the current market form as three legged A-B-C ZIG ZAG. These are corrective and not impulsive structures. We have no reason to assume at the this stage that these three legged structures could become five impulse legs. Because five wave are trends and three waves are counter trends. (The basic rule of Elliott.) We are still with Benner in terms of 2011 lows (which seems to be spilling into 2012, but not yet) and we also made our corrective case with NIFTY resolution from 4,400-4,000 lows to 8,000 after this leg down. This would be a clock work, if the anticipated happens.

The latest Alpha explains and illustrates price structures of 7 sector indices. Explains about ZIG ZAGS, illustrates where we are headed. The report also carries trendline confluences which are key time windows for reversal. If markets have a tendency to fall fast, Jiseki should also accompany the price performance. So what we said were best performing sectors in May 2011, should easily push below 50% rankings and then it should be a new ball game.

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


IS SNDK (SanDisk) going up or down?

 

Above 46-45 the stock has a chance to push up till 60. A few reasons. 1) Multi year Jiseki is still positive. 2) The multi year Jiseki rankings are still at 60, which does not make it an extreme outlier on multi year time frame. 3) The real multi year supply pressure is at 60 not at current highs near 50.

SanDisk Corporation (SanDisk) is engaged in designing, developing and manufacturing data storage solutions in a range of form factors using the flash memory, controller and firmware technologies. The Company operates through flash memory storage products segment. Most of its products are manufactured by combining NAND flash memory with a controller chip. The Company’s solutions include removable cards, embedded products, universal serial bus (USB) drives, digital media players, wafers and components. The removable card products are used in a range of consumer electronics devices, such as mobile phones, digital cameras, gaming devices and laptop computers. Its embedded flash products are used in mobile phones, tablets, eReaders, global positioning system, (GPS), devices, gaming systems, imaging devices and computing platforms. In May 2011, it acquired Pliant Technology, Inc., pursuant to which Pliant Technology became SanDisk’s Enterprise Storage Solutions business.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products

Coverage Global: S&P500, Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities


Is TCS going up or down?

 

There are more reasons for TCS to go up. 1) It is back to historical highs. 2) It is top among carbon disclosure leadership. 3) It is rumored to interest Buffet. 4) It remains the outperformer.

What could be the reasons for it to come down?

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.