Archive for January, 2012

Maruti vs. Mahindra

 

Will Maruti outperform M&M?

How much did Short Maruti, long M&M deliver annualized?

What is the BSEAUTO outlook?

To read more about our JISEKI RANKINGS, Signals and queries mail us today.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


The temporal value

 

Societal quest for value is continuous, repetitive, similar, connected with cooperation and patterned.

I don’t know who is better, Clint Eastwood or Rajkumar Hirani. I saw two back to back films, one was ‘3 idiots’ on Thursday and Friday it was ‘J Edgar’. Though this non confirms my (self proclaimed) film buff status, I took a while to catch up on the top grossing cinema creations. Blockbuster or award winning films force you to think, relate and see patterns irrespective of the settings, regional or global.

The search or quest for value has started to emerge out of the societal expression, be it films, books or protests. Whether it was Chetan Bhagat’s famed work, a Bollywood adaptation or Eastwood and DiCaprio’s attempt to educate Americans and the world about the workings of FBI and science of investigative innovations, there is a visible creative attempt to cherish the value of history and acknowledge purposeful life over corporate rat race.

The continuity of value…Value expressions have continuity because revolutions happen, creative expressions are awarded and history prospers, as we keep revisiting it. A failed present and murky future outlook keeps sending the society back to the past, to seek lessons from the valuable old. This ‘value revisiting’ also creates science as we keep refining our value measuring systems. Edgar insisted on a centralized finger prints depository to enhance investigation. What seemed ridiculous then turned out to be a necessary innovation.

The continuity of value can also be witnessed in the similarity of times…

To read the complete article visit Business Standard.


Show me the “money”

 

If the most important indicator in measuring and weighing market structure is price confirmation then there is nothing more important than a positive price breakout. Whether we have had the Jan effect (the first 5 day positive price effect) or not, the monthly close is suggesting some conspicuous price confirmations. As Indices around the world are breaking some significant true trendlines. For example the DOW 30. It has broken a significant true trendline of five years. We mentioned prior on 4 Dec in the DOW Illusion - II

“Did you know that DOW is 16% from an all time high, which it has not distinctly broken in 12 years. The basic rule of market structure suggests that the more a resistance is tested, the more likely it’s to break. Any 16% upside gives DOW a chance to test the 12 year resistance. How large is a 16% move?

This is what seems to happen now. This can of course be a false breakout. But how many false breakouts do you need? World Index, Russell 1000 broad index, Nasdaq 100, ISE home builders, Dow transports, and IYE real estate. True trendline breaks are all over the place. We need a failure across the board for the various sector indices to fail here and markets to come down. Well like I (Dan’s Elliott View is contrary to my conventional view) said, the bears are asking the bulls for the price confirmation or “show me the money”. Unfortunately “money” (price confirmation) is staring the bears in their face suggesting them to review their stand.

From the Indian perspective, the price confirmations are absent. You can’t expect India to lead everything. The whole idea of leadership is cyclical. Assets outperform and underperform their global peers cyclically. It’s time for India to lag hence no price confirmation. But if you observe closely all of CNXIT, BSE500, Sensex, CNX100, BSEAUTO, BSEPOWER are testing multi month resistances. A break would set the Indian Bull free to perform in 2012 (despite the odds). At the end of the day a few months or a 12 month Bull can happen in a large 90 year bottoming cycle. We as investors just need to focus on conserving portfolios while trying for double digit annual returns. The only way to do this is to focus on the worst losers and price breakout at the same time. This report carries some of the potential best long ideas in CNX100 components.

Let’s see, price confirmation prevails or Elliott Preferred topping 2 wave structures.

To read the report mail us for subscription details.

You can also download the report from our Reuters Store

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.


BHEL VS PUNJ(L)

 

Apart from being a conservative long – short strategy, pair trading can also assist in stock selection. What to buy? When to buy? What to sell? When to sell? Now considering we have a worst status for Punj(L) and a still a best status for Bhel. The stocks are running at 5% and 95% respectively. We ran a pair check on the stocks and the JISEKI pair cycles delivered a maximum of 71% from Sep 2009 till May 2011. This is 45% annualized. The JISEKI cycle signal was running in favor of LONG BHEL and SHORT PUNJ(L) till JULY 2011. This again would have delivered about 35% annualized.  A reversion signal to the other side has not happened yet. Whenever it happens, SHORT BHEL and LONG PUNJ(L) will deliver. This is likely to happen because BHEL is the best and PUJ(L) is the worst. The latest ALPHA carries technical cases, Jiseki cycles and the respective pair review.

To read more about our JISEKI RANKINGS, Signals and queries mail us today.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


A) Sector, B) Stock, C) Jiseki

Which sectors are best ranked?
Which sectors are worst ranked?
Will the best ranked underperform and vice versa?
Can this help me make a strategy, to shortlist the best short ideas, if the markets are falling and vice versa?

So we ran a Jiseki query

1) Filter the best performing sectors above 80%
2) Filter them for falling Jiseki cycle negative crossover signals
3) Find the top ranked stocks in that sector
4) Filter the list for running short signals

Can you guess the sector and the stock which fulfills these conditions?

We have answered all these questions in the latest ALPHA. The report carries technical cases on all the banking stocks, ranking of pairs, the top running pair, Jiseki cycles on the banking stocks and a sector preview.

To read more about our JISEKI RANKINGS, Signals and queries mail us today.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


The Nifty Alternate

What is the Nifty Alternate view?
Is the Alternate Negative?
What is the target for Nifty Alternate view?
What are the reasons?
Which are the market majors that confirm this view?
Which are the sectors that confirm the alternate view?
Above what Level the Bull Market is confirmed and the Bears should close shop?
What Nifty levels keep the bears still in the game for multi-months?

To read this special report on Elliott, Jiseki and conventional technicals on Nifty, majors, gold and brent.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.


Natural Gas at 10 year low

What does it mean if Natural Gas hits 10 Year LOW?
Does it mean Natural Gas will remain oversupply?
Or does it mean a rise in prices in Natural Gas is inevitable?
When will the reversal happen?
What does it mean for Indian Energy majors?
What does the intermarket relationship suggest between Indian Energy Majors and Natgas?

To read this special report on Natural Gas and Oil and Gas sector download it from our e store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.


Thai SETI set to break?

 

Fibonacci Fan is another way to look at price proportions. This week along with the Elliott Wave special on top five global indices, we have looked at the conventional price confirmation on seven Indian sector Indices.

Which sectors are still positive?
Which sectors are still negative?
Which sectors have non confirming positive momentum?
Which sectors are still negative?

To read the report download it from the Orpheus e-store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.


Chronology of Crisis

1637 Tulip mania damages the futures market and Dutch trade, in general.
1720 French and British stocks of firms cashing in on New World resources hit bottom.
1772 The financial crisis that occurred in the UK in 1771 leads to credit crisis, which spreads to North America.
1792 The Panic of 1792 was a financial credit crisis that occurred due to the speculation of William Duer and Alexander Macomb against stocks held by the Bank of New York.
1797 Reserves in the UK fall low, creating a monetary crisis. Bank of England put a hold on cash payments, creating widespread public panic.
1810 English credit crunch.
1813 Danish state bankruptcy.
1819 The Panic of 1819 was the first major financial crisis in the US.
1825 London stock market panic from over-speculation in Latin American investments.
1836 US real estate speculation causes stock markets to crash in the UK, Europe, and then the US.
1847 Credit crisis and bank panic ensue when railroad stock prices crash in France and the UK.
1857 During the Civil War in the US, credit crisis crashed equity prices. All nations that trade with the US were affected.
1866 ‘Black Friday’ happens from railroad speculation. A bank panic starts, which leads to lack of credit.
1873 Vienna Stock Exchange collapses, causing the ‘great stagnation’ on a global scale, which lasts until 1896.
1882 In France, Union Generale goes bankrupt, causing banking crisis and market crash.
1890 The UK’s oldest bank, Barings, nearly collapses from its exposure to Argentine debt.
1893 The Panic of 1893 in the US was marked by the collapse of railroad overbuilding and shaky railroad financing, which set off a series of bank failures.
1893 Australian banking crisis.
1896 The Panic of 1896 was an acute economic depression in the US, precipitated by a drop in silver reserves and market concerns on the effects it would have on the Gold Standard.
1907 The US bank panic spreads to France and Italy after the stock market collapse.
1910 Shanghai rubber stock market crisis.
1910-11 The Panic of 1910-11 was a slight economic depression that followed the enforcement of the Sherman Anti-Trust Act.
1921 Commodity prices crash.
1923 Hyperinflation in Germany starts monetary crisis.
1929 ‘The Great Depression’ begins after equity crash.
1931 The UK, Japan, Germany, and Austria experience financial crises.
1933 Gold Standard given up by the US, starting panic in the banking system.
1966 US credit crisis creates deflation and huge economic slump.
1973 OPEC quadruples the price of oil, which leads to global financial crisis.
1982 Global credit crunch prevents many developing countries from paying their debt.
1987 Bond and equity markets crash.
1987 ‘Black Monday’ – the largest one-day percentage decline in stock market history.
1989 Japanese bubble.
1989 Junk bond crisis.
1989-91 Savings and loan crises in the US.
1992 French Maastricht Treaty sparks crisis in European Monetary System.
1994 Major bond market correction.
995 Mexican financial crisis caused by the peso’s peg to the dollar during excessive inflation.
997 Asian financial crisis creates exchange rate and banking crises, created from stock market
and real estate speculation along with many Asian currencies pegged to the US dollar.
1998 Russia defaults on payment obligations during major financial crisis.
2000 Dot-com bubble pops, creating a massive fall in equity markets from over-speculation in
tech stocks.
2001 Another junk bond crisis.
2001 September 11 attacks hinder various critical communication hubs necessary for payment in
the financial markets.
2001 Economic crisis in Argentina, resulting in the government defaulting on payment obligations.
2002 Bond market crisis in Brazil.
2007 US real estate crisis causes the collapse of massive international banks and financial
institutions. Equity markets take a dive.
2008 Credit crunch and a frozen interbank market create financial crisis.

Source: Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Company


DLF vs. India bulls Real

 

We have a close eye on Realty. The latest update carries technical update on BSEREAL, DLF, India Bulls real estate (INRL), Mundra Port and a pair review between DLF and INRL. As we have illustrated prior, pairs can be reviewed by Jiseki Pair Cycles. The respective pair delivered 26% annualized.

What is the pair suggesting now?
What is the Jiseki update on BSEREAL and other stocks?
How is the technical picture? Positive or Negative?

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.

 

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

To read this report download it from our e store.


Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals.  Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.