Archive for March 2nd, 2012

Jiseki Pair Cycle (CAIRN vs. BSEOIL)



Q: Is this the only way to enter or exit using Jiseki?
A: There can be numerous ways to use Jiseki. One can add more than just two cycles for generating signals. One can use 3 cycles or even more to generate signals. One can also combine Jiseki signals with price signals to generate entries and exit. For example, a signal query can be ‘BUY when Jiseki1>Jiseki2 and 5 period moving average of price > 20 period moving average of price’.

Q: What time frames are you using currently on Jiseki?
A: We are working on weekly and daily prices to generate signals as of now. The focus is to capture intermediate multi week trend and not intra day signals.

Q: When do you plan to start Intra day trading signals on Jiseki?
A: We are working on launching the Jiseki Analytics as a web based application. We have already finished the database and are currently working on the web application. The web application can be used for intra day trading also as Jiseki cycles will be generated on intra day data.

Q: How is Jiseki Indices different from Jiseki Cycle signals?
A: Jiseki Indices are model portfolios while Jiseki cycles are based on individual assets.

Today we have carried the CAIRN performance over the historical period and the running signals. The Jiseki Pair cycles suggested an ENTRY (outperformance) signal vs. BSEOIL and Sensex  on 4 Dec 2011. The strategy delivered  16% and 14% respectively.  Jiseki pair strategies assist in stock selection and filter out long only ideas for our Jiseki model portfolios. Technically CAIRN is still an Energy sector outperformer. And the fact that it has already broken above historical highs confirms it’s outperformer status. This report carries a technical case on the stock along with update on Nifty, ONGC and BSEOIL. The report also carried Jiseki pair cycles on CAIRN vs. BSEOIL and CAIRN vs. ONGC.

To read more about our JISEKI Rankings, Indices, Signals and queries mail us today.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.