The Black Crow


Call it a good omen or bad, human beings have associated natural occurrences with events. Though ‘objectivists’ say human beings suffer from illusion and see what they want, reconsideration shows there is more to illusion than just a black crow or swan.

Watching a crow perched outside your window or a black swan (aka rare event) gliding on a lake or on the trading screen are patterns because they repeat, even if rarely. If there was constant crisis we would not connect them to rare events because there would be no precedent for it. Only when the passing comet coincides with a famine is it that we label its next passing as a bad omen. It’s the repetition or the cyclicality of a process that guides society to establish patterns, no matter their frequency.

The point I am making here is that identifying an outlier such as a crow perching itself outside your window and metaphorically connecting it to economics, sensationalising a fluctuation does not make it all objective. At the soul of every pattern is a repetition, a cycle. The pattern keeps repeating because the cycle keeps pulsating. So, if time is at the heart of every pattern, why do patterns sell more than a time cycle? Patterns do offer a story and humans love stories (Shiller in Irrational Exuberance), but is there really an objective reason, which can make cycles more objective and scientific?

To read the complete article visit Business Standard.


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