Archive for April, 2012

Which is the Indian stock?

 

1)That is below 50% quarter performance ranking
2)Which makes it to the 40 list of long Indian ideas
3)Has a positive price trend..
4)Has a positive Jiseki..
5)Is outperforming the other 38 long idea..

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Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


Potential New Long

 

Looking for a potential new long in a falling market might seem like a challenge. Fundamentalists have done it for long. There is always a value lurking in the universe, which you can buy and hold. Times have changed not only because buy and hold seems too risky, but also because holding on to a losing component (an underperformer) for a long time could hurt everyone from the fund manager to the investor. How do we bring out more objectivity in the stock selection process. What if we could merge the three approaches, fundamental, technical and statistical all into one.

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Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


The Weeping Willow

I was invited to give an inspiration talk at the Startup Weekend for the global Jade network. KJ, a friend of mine, an international expert on e gaming and netpreneur could not avoid a smirk, “Mukul and inspirational talk”. He knew me well and was much updated about the contrarian me and our idea of glorifying the worst. Unmindful of KJ’s de-motivation, I went ahead and delivered the following talk.

It was sometime in June 2005, I was with my partner in an art museum looking at the picture of a Salcia tree. Salcia’s are a predominant species here in Cluj. She told me about the Greek tragedy (Death of Eurydice) linked with Salcia, popularly known as ‘The weeping willow’. We were looking for a name for our company and after hearing the tragedy I started toying with the idea ‘The Weeping Willow Inc.’ I foresaw an economic tragedy and saw a perfect fit. But then we are in the age of euphemisms, hard truths can be bad for business. This is how we chose ‘Orpheus’ as a name for our company.

Now 7 years later, sorrow seems to have transcended from the painting on the wall to austerity and debt worries driving Greek pensioners to suicide. We are living tragic times where more than 40% of Spanish youth from 15-24 are jobless. One might say India is another world. It’s an illusion. Almost half a billion India is young. You should read the recent TIME story on ‘Children of the New India’. Disappointments rarely make headlines, till it creates Mohammed Bouazizi or the Tibetan youth immolating himself in Delhi, protesting Chinese interference in Tibet.

This could also seem disconnected to the economic reality. But it’s not. Economics 101…

This article was written for Business Standard

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Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.


Gillette and Power Grid

 

The ongoing NIFTY negativity remains a countertrend for us. The latest ALPHA update carries the portfolio update and has carried a query for worst performers that have a rising Jiseki cycle. Power Grid and Gillette were the two filtered ideas. Gillette might look stretched fundamentally but on the performance ranking it’s one of the worst quarterly performers stagnating since 2011 and breaking out only in Mar 2012. Above this the stock has just broken 2000 highs, a decade long resistance. Power Grid also seems to be heading higher. We have added it to our long portfolio list.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Mail us for subscription details or download the report from our Reuters store.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


The Football League Filter

 

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Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.


The Gold Momentum

Momentum can be interpreted in many ways. One for leadership signs and second as a confirmation of the strength in an ongoing trend. Momentum is also referred to as oscillators.  The oscillators can be of various kinds, which can be interpreted in many ways. We have illustrated the ROC momentum for Gold prices below. There are a few ways you can interpret it.

Now that we have made a case on GOLD, it would be interesting to see how Gold is behaving vs. Dow and Sensex. Both of them have a running long vs. Gold. We have also illustrated the cash comparison the group of assets and also a comparison vs. Gold. A signal update on Jiseki cycles for all the assets and an update with the latest Jiseki cycles.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Mail us for subscription details or download the report from our Reuters store.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


Technically Speaking

Mukul’s article was published in the latest Technically Speaking.


The Purposeful Time

Romancing Himalayan is a magazine published from Jammu, India by Kashmirink.


Energy Sector Filter


Yesterday we queried the financial services sector including banks, insurance companies and other financial sector components for buy and sell ideas. We did not get any long ideas because most of the sector components were still with negative Jiseki cycles and signals. Today we do the same exercise for all the Energy sector components in the BSE 500 stocks.  Unlike the NSEBANK, the BSEOIL is also a running short signal for us. This means that the energy sector is an underperformer compared to financial services sector.

The query results were not surprising. The BSE 500 energy components continue the downward momentum and even here there were no long running ideas.  This is the query that we ran.

1) Filter Rankings for  > 50 % ranking best performers
2) Run the above list for Jiseki Weekly Rankings < Jiseki Monthly Rankings
3) Also run the list for Jiseki Monthly Rankings < Jiseki Quarterly Rankings

The final list had the following seven running short ideas. Most of them are already running shorts. The latest Alpha we have reviewed the rest and carried a signal updated for the respective stocks.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Mail us for subscription details or download the report from our Reuters store.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


The Jiseki Histogram

 

This issue we have explained Jiseki and it’s elements. The Jiseki indicator is based on a ranking system. The ranking is based on price performance (returns) of an asset  among a group of assets for a certain holding period say quarterly, monthly, weekly etc. If an asset is a top performer among the group for a certain holding period, it gets a top ranking of 100 % for the respective period. And if the asset is a worst performer for the same period than it gets a ranking near 0 %. Because a top performer can’t stay at the top for an indefinite period and a worst performer can’t remain worst for any single holding period, the rankings keep changing. These changing rankings create the Jiseki performance cycles for different holding period. There is a Jiseki performance cycle for quarterly, monthly, weekly etc.. The ranking chart below is the ranking of the Indian late economic components from BSE 500 that are more than 80 per cent ranking range, which have all three Jiseki cycle (quarterly, weekly and monthly) pointing lower.

Here we have run a Jiseki Histogram query for you to understand how we generate signals (entry and Exits). We filtered the Indian coverage using the following filters.

1)Filter Ranking > 80 % best performers
2)Monthly Ranking  > Weekly Ranking
3)Quarterly Ranking > Month Ranking.
Many of the ideas are already running shorts. In this latest Alpha we have reviewed the rest and carried a tracker on running signals.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Mail us for subscription details or download the report from our Reuters store.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.