Archive for April 11th, 2012

The Weeping Willow

I was invited to give an inspiration talk at the Startup Weekend for the global Jade network. KJ, a friend of mine, an international expert on e gaming and netpreneur could not avoid a smirk, “Mukul and inspirational talk”. He knew me well and was much updated about the contrarian me and our idea of glorifying the worst. Unmindful of KJ’s de-motivation, I went ahead and delivered the following talk.

It was sometime in June 2005, I was with my partner in an art museum looking at the picture of a Salcia tree. Salcia’s are a predominant species here in Cluj. She told me about the Greek tragedy (Death of Eurydice) linked with Salcia, popularly known as ‘The weeping willow’. We were looking for a name for our company and after hearing the tragedy I started toying with the idea ‘The Weeping Willow Inc.’ I foresaw an economic tragedy and saw a perfect fit. But then we are in the age of euphemisms, hard truths can be bad for business. This is how we chose ‘Orpheus’ as a name for our company.

Now 7 years later, sorrow seems to have transcended from the painting on the wall to austerity and debt worries driving Greek pensioners to suicide. We are living tragic times where more than 40% of Spanish youth from 15-24 are jobless. One might say India is another world. It’s an illusion. Almost half a billion India is young. You should read the recent TIME story on ‘Children of the New India’. Disappointments rarely make headlines, till it creates Mohammed Bouazizi or the Tibetan youth immolating himself in Delhi, protesting Chinese interference in Tibet.

This could also seem disconnected to the economic reality. But it’s not. Economics 101…

This article was written for Business Standard

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Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

Gillette and Power Grid


The ongoing NIFTY negativity remains a countertrend for us. The latest ALPHA update carries the portfolio update and has carried a query for worst performers that have a rising Jiseki cycle. Power Grid and Gillette were the two filtered ideas. Gillette might look stretched fundamentally but on the performance ranking it’s one of the worst quarterly performers stagnating since 2011 and breaking out only in Mar 2012. Above this the stock has just broken 2000 highs, a decade long resistance. Power Grid also seems to be heading higher. We have added it to our long portfolio list.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

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Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.