The CNXIT High - II

Since the start of the year, we labeled technology as a potential underperformer. Now when we see volatility in technology stocks all cause and effect pours in. We received mails from us readers asking us “whether Jiseki anticipated the move on Infosys?”

These are all the historical long and short signals on Infosys. The grey Jiseki is a long signal while the sandy color is short. As you can see the current signal was in short zone since 11 March.

=

There are very few advisors and money managers in India who are not expected to have a view on Indian Tech. “We are in India and we need to have a view on Indian tech”. We had no tech component what so ever in our long only portfolio. This suggested that we stuck to our view that Technology was a best performer prone to downside risks. This is what we mentioned on 06 Jan 2012.

The CNXIT high? The TECH has always played a significant weightage in market reversals. This was the case in 2009. However, this time things look a bit different. Lets look at the positives and the negatives and measure what TECH is doing. Going to historical high? Till when? Which are the stronger components? Which are the weaker components?

Now when we see volatility in technology stocks all cause and effect pours in. We received mails from us readers asking us “whether Jiseki anticipated the move on Infosys?” These are all the historical long and short signals on Infosys. The grey Jiseki is a long signal while the sandy color is short. As you can see the current signal was in short zone since 11 March.

We have not yet combined Elliott with Jiseki signals. On many occasions we have carried both perspective simultaneously. This can be considered an ambiguity. However, it’s important for us to understand how we can harness the strength of conventional technical with statistical Jiseki Indicator. Our aim is also to illustrate how technical s have limitations and a solid looking preferred Elliott view can fall on it’s face. We have still not migrated our Jiseki signals to a real time database updation. Till that happens we will be carrying technical and Jiseki cases together, some times with confirming signals and sometimes with non confirming signals. Our final calls are on the portfolio updates, rest everything is a monitoring process.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals.  Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.


One Response to “The CNXIT High - II”

  1. sumit bhatia says:

    hello ,

    infy plunged on 13 april 2012.

    insider trading should have been done in that case .can we look at charts and apply technical to see about insider trading .or can orpheus interpretation help in detecting insider trading
    thnx

Post a comment

     

Spam protection by WP Captcha-Free