BUY in MAY and go away

 

We are almost half way through the year and broad markets are still net positive. Now that we are in May and into a negative seasonal period, it might be interesting to review whether the ‘Sell in May and Go away’ would really work this time. Markets have an ability to trash all known seasonality, specially if it becomes an accepted belief.

Though we are running more short ideas in our running portfolio compared to running longs, we have started to close SHORTS. We closed…

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Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Coverage India: CNX100, BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames.


5 Responses to “BUY in MAY and go away”

  1. Dp says:

    What abt ur 6000 target? Went in smoke.

    • Orpheus says:

      http://orpheus.asia/2012/05/21/the-roc-bull/
      To understand what went up in smoke and what did not, subscribe to Orpheus Research. Good research comes at a cost, free tips and blog surfing doesn’t make an investor smarter.

      Orpheus Research Team
      PS: This is a managed blog, which shares with you excerpts from our research ideas. You are requested to be courteous and polite.

  2. Shanti says:

    DP, You should dig in more in the recent updates. Orpheus view was regarding a leg lower till 4,000. They talked about the pending leg earlier.

    “From an Elliott perspective, our ongoing preferred is a running flat, which could bottom near Nifty 4,500-4,000 levels.”

    http://orpheus.asia/2012/01/02/nifty-8000/

  3. Dp says:

    I am not talking about stocks. NIFTY went in smoke. I apologize if my words have harmed you.

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