Archive for June 8th, 2012

Jiseki Cycles - Sensex 30

We are happy to introduce Jiseki Cycles. This much awaited service will provide weekly analysis on Jiseki Cycles for selected sub-groups. Today we are illustrating the Jiseki Cycles on the Sensex 30 components Jiseki cycles. The universe contains 1000 international assets including the BSE 500 components.  Choosing the Universe is an important exercise for Jiseki. Because a changing group alters the performance metrics. We are sharing a part of the report free for our blog visitors. All our ALPHA India subscribers will find the service in the member’s area.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

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After we have filtered Sensex 30 components from the BSE 500 group, TCS has is no more an outlier and is at 75 percentile ranking. This means though the stock is an outperformer, it has still potential to continue outperforming till the Jiseki 3 (quarterly performance) grey cycle does not reverse in trend. The Technology heavyweight also challenges the negative sentiment in the market, with it’s persistence to retest previous highs.

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We talked about “Why we won’t buy Reliance” a few months back. Though there were reasons we cited in the article, Jiseki’s objective perspective has been negative from 2009 high. The stock is still at 75, which is still pretty high to look for a real reversal. This is one major that should continue to under-perform.

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For all those looking at ITC’s current upleg as the final fifth up should give Jiseki some weight. The rankings are at 75, the Jiseki complex (1>2>3) are all pointing higher. The over-reactive MACD and price support above 0.382 Fibonacci keeps us looking higher. Above 230 the stock remains positive.

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Unlike TCS, Infosys has a negative Jiseki 3 (quarterly performance ranking). The only positive for the stock is that it’s overall performance rankings are still near 50, which makes it far from an outlier. This seems like a bottoming structure. A similar confirmation can been seen in CNXIT, which is heading the primary multi-year supports.

To read the latest report download it from our Reuters Store or mail us for subscription details.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals.  Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. She worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.