Meeting Sam Stovall


On 3 Apr 2013, I had a meeting with Mark Arbeter, Chief Technical Strategist at the S&P. Air Canada had lost my bags and I was wearing my Zara “fancy” sweater with a “miner’s” Levis. I could not cancel the meeting, so I decided to go ahead reaching 55 Water Street, 44th floor. The security downstairs, the east river look and the disproportionately taller building on the narrow streets gives you a walking on Dalal Street like feeling.

So there I was up with Mark. We grabbed a Columbian coffee and started talking. About markets, natural gas, energy, inflation, deflation, intermarket and sector rotation. Sector rotation was a subject close to my heart. Sam Stovall was the leading expert on sector rotation. He identified five economic cycle stages in the market viz. early expansion, middle expansion, late expansion, early contraction and late contraction. The market sectors move within these five stages. Technology and Transportation perform in the early expansion, capital goods in the middle expansion stage, basic materials, energy, and consumer staples in the late expansion stage, utilities in the early contraction stage. The financials and consumer cyclicals outperformed in the late contraction stage.

Why was the subject of Sector Rotation important globally and locally?

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Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.

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