Happy ‘Rogers’, Unhappy ‘RIM’?

Well if that’s the case, you should listen to what Jiseki has to say. It suggests it’s time to be happy with RIM and unhappy with Rogers. Why? Because after delivering a dream run on Rogers from Jun 2012 low near 35, the stock has reached 90 percentile after reaching price level at 50. Now none of our Active ORMI Toronto Indices will select the stock. Ofcourse positive outliers are hard to predict and the winner can persist, but for us the risk, volatility and the potential drawdown that winner brings with it, it is not worth accumulating the performer.

For us here at Orpheus it’s better to sell in strength that run after it. And it’s better to weakness than to discard a worst performer. Also it’s about the bang on the buck, are you looking at more profit per unit allocation or just a profit. A negative outlier outperforms the positive outlier over a period of time.

Coming back to the worst RIM; we first covered RIM in our SSRN Paper in Oct 2011. We also did an update “Is Blackberry dead” in Nov 2011. The update dissuaded investors to call the bottom of the stock as Jiseki rankings and cycles were still pointing lower. Now after calling the 2007 top (ok! yes we were lucky again), the stock is not just a negative outlier, it is at 3 percentile. This means worst of worst. What a brilliant time to look at it. Moreover now the Jiseki cycles are in a clear positive trend. This is why our question. Are you happy with Rogers and unhappy with RIM?

 


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