Posts published by "Mukul PAL":

Ideas

Plato, one of the first philosophers to discuss ideas in detail.

Scientific Paper Ideas

Tossing the TIME coin
The butterfly effect myth
The econophysics myth
Correlation of worst losers portfolio to universe (winners portfolio)

Social Trends

The New Google (Done)
Generation X - Strauss and Howe

General Ideas

Decision making and TIME  - 17 JULY
Environment and TIME
Open source and TIME
Short History, Long Time

Statistical Paper Ideas

Parrondo’s paradox
Long PE - Short Price and vice versa
Hedge Inefficiency
Pair ineffciency
Statistics and TIME
Beta Cycles
The time exponent
Why is nature exponential?
What is Time Indexing?
What is Randomness?
Growth vs. Value
Sunspot and TIME
What is a PAIR?
Correlations vs Cycles
Cycles vs Inefficiency
The power law in the Fibonacci sequence
Time vs APM

Technical Analysis Paper Ideas

Summation/Hurst/Hierarchy
Explaining the 13 Elliott Patterns with Time Triads
How can TIME TRIADS explain inflation? History of inflation
How can TIME TRIADS explain interest rates? History of interest rates
Introducing time oscillators
The New Vix (Jiseki Character)
What is a market leader?
Why does an oscillator fail?

Mathematical Paper Ideas

Patterns in Irrational numbers
The magic of Euler’s number
Simplifying Fractals - MSET and TIME
Recreating Cantor Set through Time Translation
The intertemporal choice (The story of John Rae)
Avogadro number
Champernowne Sequence


Happy Birthday Orpheus

We thank all our readers and members for a great 6 years. We enjoyed every bit of it.
Orpheus Team


The Soft Supercycle

Despite the recent fall Sugar and Coffee are still in news. The preferred view might look like an extending 3 cycle wave up. However, it makes sense to see what is not obvious from a rising asset price structure. This is the most common mistake Elliotticians make, not thinking of how the asset can surprise or in other words a backup alternate count. We have made a case for an alternate super cycle reversal here for sugar.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts


The Cycle Currency

The further we go away from a core idea, the bigger trouble we get into. The unfortunate part is that the very nature of economics, nature and society is about going further to extremes, invariably to an unbalancing situation.

The derivatives we blame today were created for the farmer who needed a risk management solution for his farm produce. He did not want to be left to the vagaries of natures and speculative volatilities. These derivatives were good and useful. The instruments are still fulfilling the same role for the farmer. The only problem is that along with the hedger came the speculator who was not only offering a counter party hedge but also leveraging. This brings in all the risks of volatility to a society. This is no normal volatility. This is volatility that creates risk, leading to bankruptcies and financial disasters.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

To read more visit Alrroya


Natgas Grand Supercycle (1945 - 2010)

Natural Gas is moving up in a five wave structure since 1945. Commodities are known to have extended fifth wave structures, making the complete wave structure as a nine legged formation. A fall of Natural Gas below previous grand supercycle IV (circle) low of 1995 at 1.55 would negate all commodity secular bull and inflationary expectations. It would also suggest a drop in the global energy consumption.

This does not seem to be the case now….

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts.


The Benner Prophecy

Benner’s model of ‘Time’ predicts a mini crash in 2011, a boom till 2019 and a depression in 2021. He was the first one to talk about hierarchal ‘Time’ in 1875.

Benner Samuel was a farmer from Ohio who wrote his prophecies in a book about price fluctuations in 1875. The 19th century was also the time of Laplacian probability, Gaussian distributions, Peano curves and Cantor set. While mathematicians were looking for structures in mathematics, Benner was studying and writing about a model of ‘Time’ to forecast the future.

Benner lived in an era of Axe Houghton Indices, the time when Chicago Board of Trade was established and agricultural commodity trading was active business. Society was busy with agriculture and expanding railroads. This is why his workings were based on pig iron, corn, cotton and hogs. Along with agriculture came the essential science of weather forecasting. What years would be dry or wet? When we may expect years of heat, storm an cold? Agricultural statistics was compiled and used to establish demand and supply patterns. It was then 135 years back Benner wrote that the future cannot be calculated based on agricultural statistics. Statistics compilation according to him would remain always poor, irregular, manipulable, undependable and non predictive.



 

 

This was the reason he focused on history sighting another English historian “Tooke” who talked about alternation of good and bad harvests as a historical fact. According to Benner, the axiom, “history repeats itself” implies a cyclical movement in human affairs, and as it is a generally received opinion that everything moves in cycles, specially in nature. Prediction of future can only be done by the past. History repeats itself with marvelous accuracy in detail from one panic year to another. Benner was the first to show how history repeated systematically. He was vocal about the cyclicality of financial catastrophes and his model illustrated the crisis of 1891, 1902, 1910 and even 1929.

The story of the Benner’s work is intertwined with his personal experiences of bankruptcy. He wanted to find the law of nature. He took the yearly average prices to smoothen the data. When he compared them he saw up and down yearly cycles repeating in a fixed sequence of a large cycle of 18-20-16 years and a small cycle of 9-10-8 years. The cycles low depicted reactions and depressions. The larger 54 year cycle was also discussed in detail by Russian Economist Kondratiev in 1925. There is no published reference of the connection between Benner and Kondratiev. According to Benner these were cast iron rules which were accurate. He referred it as ‘God in prices’.

Extending and updating the Benner cycle points to a high in 2010 now, another minor crisis into 2011, followed by prosperity into 2019 and then a depression in 2021. His work is full of apocalyptic quotes. “delusive phantom of hope”, “forewarned is forearmed”, “hard times and dull trade”, “stay out and confine”, “the strong or hard times will come to every home”, “providence works on the mind of men”

Of course Benner was excited about his work. But if we look beyond his prophetic tone, a lot of what Benner says is overlapping with the work of contemporary thinkers. Benner’s idea about incomplete and lacking information and hierarchy of ‘Time’ is similar to Herbert Simon’s idea of bounded rationality and hierarchal systems. Benner’s cases of Iron King, black Monday’s and randomness sound like a recent blog update from Alrroya. His idea of studying fluctuations coincides with Shiller’s attempt in 1981 to study fluctuations. His law of nature coincides with Elliott’s (1934) and challenges Mandelbrot who said there was no such thing. His words “I Predict” make him a classic case for behavioral finance error. His focus on past makes him a market technician. Technical analysis is mainstream today. He also talks about ups and downs, over and under production, cycles in extreme, overestimation and underestimation, interconnections between corn and hog prices, law of oversupply and under demand and over and under production of every commodity. This also seems like a confirmation of Orpheus Performance cycles to me. Benner’s work also confirms the work of Lamprecht who said that history was mathematical.

Time according to Benner was a pattern, a rule that did not change because of war, panic or elections. It was relentless in nature. It was periodical and not haphazard. The rule was unchangeable, determinable. Failures in business were connected with ignorance of ‘Time’. We can judge Benner today, as a farmer or a genius, but that would not change the fact that he was one of the first to see the mathematical hierarchy in ‘Time’.


Benner, Pareto and the structure of time

Benner was the first one to illustrate time hierarchy and Pareto showcased hierarchy in everything. Could they have connected the idea in 1900 before the Pareto curve?

Benner’s Prophecies - Future up and down in prices was written in 1875. A keen technician will sooner or later hit the fascinating time geometry of the Benner cycle. Samuel Benner was a prosperous farmer wiped out financially by the 1873 panic. He turned to wheat farming in Ohio and took up the statistical study of price movements as a hobby to find, if possible, the answers to the recurring ups and downs in business. He noted that highs of the business tend to follow a repeating 8-9-10 yearly pattern. With respect to economic low points, he noted two series of time sequences indicating that recessions (bad times) and depressions (panics) tend to alternate.

I updated the Benner cycles and they suggest a top in 2010, a slowdown and low in 2011, a cycle high again till 2019 and then depression in 2021.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts


The New Gold - I

The global monetary system needs a financial and technological innovation.

Peter Bernstein looked at gold from a historical aspect in his book ‘The Power of Gold, the history of an obsession’. From the start of Egyptian era in 3100 BC when Pharaoh’s ruled to the Roman Empire, the author illustrated how gold slowly and steadily became the real money.

The current stage of gold also gives it an aura, but this time it’s the public that has been enamored by it not the central bankers. I don’t know how Robert M. Solow will connect gold with economic growth, but just like Benjamin Disraeli, he would say the same thing, “Gold is not a cause of growth but a consequence of it”

Solow proved that only technological progress leads to real growth. A closer look at Bernstein’s history from a Solowian perspective based on technological innovations and other financial innovations reveals interesting aspects about gold.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya.

The Economic Nobel - II

Social sciences approach to tackling dynamic problems might be a vicious cycle.

Almost a decade back on Dec 10, 1999, Professor Torsten Persson said “The advancement of science frequently relies on new methods that allow us to approach questions no one has been able to answer in the past. Scientific breakthroughs also occur when creative researchers ask new questions that no one was imaginative enough to formulate in the past. The ability to pose new questions is perhaps particularly important in economics and other social sciences. Society undergoes constant transformation, due to changed institutions, behavior and expectations. In other words, the social sciences necessarily attack moving targets”.

Coming to look at it, the problem case is so dynamic that we have spent more than 250 years analyzing problems and offering solutions.  A few of the last 50 years Nobel Prize winning solutions are either already challenged or are counter arguments to answers offered  more than a 100 years ago.

Problems, solutions, new problems

1999 winner Robert A. Mundell formulated dynamic models to deal with the economy’s adjustment over time. He examined ways in which monetary and fiscal policy can be decentralized. He asked questions like how might instability in the economy be avoided over time? Mundell offered a solution to currency regime, which first came true as Bretton Woods failed. Now in the current context of currency wars it seems we have a bigger problem than the one already addressed by the social scientist in 1960.

To read complete the complete article visit Alrroya

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


Life and coastlines

Some problems span multi generations, Benoit Mandelbrot solved one such problem and earned himself a well deserving place in history, as the father of fractals.  Many of these mathematical structures and their descriptions go back to classical mathematics and mathematicians of the past like Cantor, Peano, Hilbert, Koch, Sierpinski, Julia, Hausdorff, but it was Mandelbrot who extended the early topology. Fractals solve the problem of how to organize complicated structure in an efficient way. Of course this was not what Peano and Hilbert were interested in almost 100 years ago. It was only after Mandelbrot’s work that the omnipresence of fractals became apparent.

Mandelbrot was a visionary in his ability to connect mathematics and patterns. He too like many other great thinkers worked on ideas of aggregation, simplification, order, efficiency rules, cyclicality in errors, interconnectedness of nature through geometrical structures. Mandelbrot illustrated that very simple formulas can generate objects that exhibit an extraordinary wealth of structure. His work encompasses mathematics, physics, economics and diverse other fields of physical and social sciences, music and art. He died on 14 Oct at the age of 85 after suffering from pancreatic cancer.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya