Posts published by "Mukul PAL":

The Economics Nobel - I

The economics Nobel laureates seek an implicit order and efficiency in Time.

Starting 1969 Economic Nobel laureates research has focused on business cycles, fluctuations, economic history and mathematical proportion.

1969. Ragnar Frisch, Jan Tinbergen. Frisch created a dynamic formulation of the theory of time cycles. He demonstrated how a dynamic system involving investments and consumption expenditure produced a damped wave movement with wavelengths of 4 and 8 years and how despite random disruptions the wave movements became permanent. Tinbergen created an econometric study of cyclical fluctuations. His aim was to test the explanatory value of the existing flora of business cycle theories.

1970. Paul A. Samuelson. How the economy develops from period to period in a chain of development phases in time.

1971. Simon Kuznets was a cyclist and has a cycle of 15-20 years named after him.

1972. Hicks and Arrows. There exist general tendencies towards inoptimality in the allocation of resources. His model linked general equilibrium theory and current theories of business cycles. Hicks connected the monetary theory and to the theory of business cycles.

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To read more visit the Orpheus e-store or download Time Triads from the Reuters e store below

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


The Auto Story

The auto sector exponential growth suggests that it’s time to rethink for auto manufacturers and investors alike.
The modern city I knew as a child keeps changing. There used to be more roads and less cars, now there are only cars. If you want to see roads and have driving pleasure you have to skip two thirds of the day. Ok this may be more valid coming from an emerging market like India or China, but the emerging market outlook for auto has been assumed to be significant globally.
The conventional thought may see auto growth as economic growth, signs of prosperity. The auto sector would do well then it is a sign of continued growth. How good is this indicator? Have we not come a long way from assuming that auto is the leading indicator that powers the economic cycle up?
Indicator failure is a reality and ‘the car story’ also stands challenged, at least in the form that we know today.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


SSRN top 10. "The BRIC model from a Japanese Perspective"

Your paper, SSRN Top Downloads (BRIC), was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for POL: Other Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy (Topic), POL: Other Strategy & Microeconomic Policy (Topic), Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal and Strategy & Microeconomic Policy eJournal. As of 09/14/2010, your paper has been downloaded 11 times. You may view the abstract and download statistics at http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1654002.

Top Ten Lists are updated on a daily basis. Click on the following link to view the Top Ten list for the journal POL: Other Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy (Topic) Top TenPOL: Other Strategy & Microeconomic Policy (Topic) Top TenStrategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal Top Ten and Strategy & Microeconomic Policy eJournal Top Ten.

Click on the following link to view all the papers in the journal POL: Other Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy (Topic) All PapersPOL: Other Strategy & Microeconomic Policy (Topic) All PapersStrategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal All Papers and Strategy & Microeconomic Policy eJournal All Papers.

To view any of the Top Ten lists, click the TOP button on any network, subnetwork, journal or topic in the Browse list reachable through the following link: http://www.ssrn.com/Browse

Social Science Research NetworkSocial Science Research Network

To read more, download the latest report of Time Triads from the links below.

For more information on Time Triads mail us at [email protected]

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

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Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Does Nifty Sleep?


If performance is cyclical like everything else in nature than asset prices are always relatively outperforming and underperforming. An underperforming asset is sleeping and stagnating. It lacks trading interest, tests patience and will deliver less than expectations. Now one may say, it is impossible to find when the Nifty sleeps and wakes up? Before we prove that one can pinpoint time let’s look at the shifting seasonality from sleeping and waking performance. Once we establish this seasonality, a momentum trader or investor would know that Nifty is going to sleep. Then you can do better with investments by simply ignoring Nifty.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts


Indian Banks - Exponentiality of Returns

These are the tabulated banking stocks performance (returns) for the last 3 months. A visible exponentiality. The banking stock covers State owned banks (SOB), Old Private sector banks and private banks.


Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


The Information Pattern

Information like everything else in nature is mathematically patterned. Understanding the pattern can help us make more sense of information.

Coming to look at it, we don’t trade or invest in assets but their intrinsic information. It is this information that gives them value. The relationship is considered linear between information and value, the higher the quality of the information, higher the perceived value in the assets and vice versa. For example, the value of Oil lies in the information code bits in it. Oil is going to get over, demand will overshoot supply, future is inflationary are some of the information bits that drive the price of Oil. A similar information code also works for Gold and other assets. It’s like DNA with a different code, but similar double helix structure.

However, that’s not how the society knows information. The masses know information as something that they read in the newspaper, something that they see on TV, or read on the web. It’s all about making sense of this clutter. The very fact that humans think there is a certain disorder in the information that they assume the confusion that comes with news. If the information works for us, great, If it does not, we accept it. We have learned to have fewer expectations from information.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


The Fat Tail

Last time we talked about divergence, how life and nature is replete with divergence cases and the debate built around it. The funny part of all this debate is that we are somewhere still living the blind men and the elephant metaphor. We don’t see the big picture. If Herbert Simon is to be believed we may never see the elephant. But then seeing more of an elephant is still better that just seeing its tail. Unfortunately that’s not how it works in society. We love tails, especially fat ones. There is a lot of literature on fat tails in statistics.

Claiming your idea to be better is one thing and suggesting the other idea is wrong is another. But then humans just like the curves they define live and believe in extremes. There are more than a few cases in History of mathematics where researchers trashed their peers or next generation of thinkers. The Bourbaki Secret Society was formed in 1935 because members felt that the older mathematicians were needlessly clinging to old practices. Prehistory of fractals also saw a lot of resistance. Henri Poincare called it as ‘Gallery of monsters’, Charles Hermite quoted them as ‘a lamentable plague of functions with no derivatives’. More recently Jean Dieudonne ‘Some mathematical curves like Peano Curve are totally non intuitive…extravagant’. Now we know how key Peano curve is for relativity and defining the structure of space.

Sometime the polarity does change. Carl Gauss, the prince of mathematics of the 18th century is trashed today by contemporary mathematicians like fractal guru Benoit Mandelbrot, who claims that the Gaussian bell curve is nonsense. Why was Mandelbrot so vocal about large divergences (extremities)? Could Mandelbrot have missed the big picture? Will Mandelbrot’s vision overtake Gaussian mathematics finally relegating bell curve, normal distributions to the annals of history?

We at Orpheus don’t think Gauss was wrong. The law of frequency of error took the shape of a bell curve. The idea first mentioned by Abraham Moivre in 1738 is now a part of societal faith and market modeling. Starting from Fundamental analysis, option pricing, statistics, the normal distribution curve is everywhere. The curve talks about patterns in divergences that revert around the mean. Francis Galton was so impressed with the idea that he wrote a complete theory of mean reversion around it.  Practical applications were built around the idea and it was used as a predictive model.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


Time Fractals - SSRN top 10 (1997-2010)

“The Time Fractals”, was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for ERN: Other Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming (Topic). As of 08/03/2010, your paper has been downloaded 185 times. You may view the abstract and download statistics at http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1585967.

Top Ten Lists are updated on a daily basis. Click on the following link to view the Top Ten list for the journal ERN: Other Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming (Topic) Top Ten.

Click on the following link to view all the papers in the journal ERN: Other Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming (Topic) All Papers.

To view any of the Top Ten lists, click the TOP button on any network, subnetwork, journal or topic in the Browse list reachable through the following link: http://www.ssrn.com/Browse

Social Science Research Network

To read more, download the latest report of Time Triads from the links below.

For more information on Time Triads mail us at [email protected]

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Orpheus e-store

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Smith, Pareto and the divergence debate

Life is all about making sense of information. This information could be personal, economic, or societal kind. When we comprehend information, we make a decision, which we assume to be positive. So at a certain level we are trying to understand performance and how to perform as individuals and make performant choices? Performance assumes a kind of order. We try to create order in minds from disorder in the external world. This disorder could also be called divergence.

Divergence is a phenomenon seen in nature and markets. It is something that needs explaining and can be ineffable at times. It is linked with change or rate of change, fast and faster change. How fast can a price asset grow or decay? Divergence is also assumed to have a non normal aspect. It happens less than normal. Normality assumes that markets and 90% of its components move higher together or vice versa. Divergence is different from normality and could indicate change, a potential reversal. Divergence is also known as non confirmation in technical analysis. Divergence also creates news, as something that is non normal is strange and worth talking about. Divergence can be seen in information, data, and patterns. Divergence is studied and researched. It is a system that can be built as a strategy.

Adam smith (1723-1790) talked about the invisible hand, what we don’t know, something unpredictable, a kind of divergence. Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) talked about non homogeneous wealth allocation. 80% of the wealth is with 20% of people. This unequal allocation was a divergence.

Read the complete article at Alrroya

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


Redefining Intermarket Analysis

What is Victor Niederhoffer’s historical validation for naïve reasons?
When do fundamentalists and market technicians in consensus?
Are there things even consensus can’t solve?
How does divergence look explainable on a hidsignt basis?
What is the real challenge when it comes to market divergence?
Why do Elliotticians despite such sharpness in pattern recognition lack the command on intermarket picture?

“Elliotticians tag, ‘we are here’ by drawing a fractalled contour of a wave structure. They count it, label it and point ‘we are going here’ in 2012. Even Elliotticians despite such sharpness lack the command on intermarket picture. We decided to understand intermarket failure. We took 55 assets from the following asset classes; metals, energy, agro, bonds, currency, equity, and benchmarked all of them against ….”

Why does Murphy call the study intermarket analysis not intermarket cycles?
Are markets not supposed to do what they are doing?
Can intermarket failure be explained?

The latest time triads explains intermarket failures. You can download the report from the following links.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya