Posts published by "Mukul PAL":

Top underperformer Spain wins

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


How did the worst performer Spain reach so far?

Spain beat Germany to book first ever World Cup final slot.

source: wikipedia

This is what we said on 14 Jun

“We don’t want to make it all work and no play. So on a lighter note, here goes the sports bet. Brazil, Germany, Italy have been in the top 3 positions, 9, 10 and 7 times respectively since 1930s. This makes them the top rankers. Performance cycles suggest that top rankers disappoint and worst rankers surprise as performance reverses. The question of value for money does not come from picking a previous winner but one who has more odds against it.”

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Econohistory, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on Time patterns, Time forecasts, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

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Did behavioral finance get it wrong?

Human beings may not be nice and dumb

Herbert A Simon got the Nobel Prize for economics in 1978 for his research on decision making process within economic organizations. Herbert is considered one of the most influential social scientist of 20th century. A study of history of behavioral finance also cites his 1955 paper “A behavioral model of rational choice” (1955) as the first thought which started it all.

Though the paper starts with the need for a revision of the economic model which assumes that the economic man is rational, has knowledge, computational skills, is well organized with stable system of preferences, can plan alternative courses of action, reach highest attainable point on preference scale but clearly states that the aim of the paper is not to discuss these doubts, or to determine whether they are justified but to think about a revision, a direction towards a better economic model. The author did not mention irrational or ‘not rational’ anywhere in the paper. The author mentions that entities may possess a hierarchy of rational mechanisms and comparing computation (computer) with humans is very difficult, as both may get labeled as a moron in a different situation. This should shock some of the behavioral finance believers who have accepted clichés like “Human beings are nice and dumb” by Terry Burnham (Harvard) and have started to believe that it is more about irrationality than rationality.

Herbert’s bounded rationality is a concept at the soul of behavioral economics. Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Prize winner 2002) proposes bounded rationality as a model to overcome some of the limitations of the rational-agent models in economics. Putting simply bounded rationality suggests that there is never enough knowledge to take decisions and hence the limitations in decision making. Unlike Daniel, Gerd Gigerenzer, a German psychologist argues that heuristics (thumb rules) should not lead us to conceive of human thinking as riddled with irrational cognitive biases, but rather to conceive rationality as an adaptive tool that is not identical to the rules of formal logic or the probability calculus. Gerd suggested that bounded rationality was misinterpreted by behavioral finance.

Did behavioral finance gurus got it all wrong? Did they just over emphasized the limitations of human decision making instead of working on a model as Herbert intended? Was it easier to deal with limitations than work on a rational thought model? Does this prove that fundamentalists are indeed correct in suggesting that behavioral finance is the great story of human errors?

It was not just the fundamentalists but even Gerd who mentioned about the behavioral finance over elaboration of human decision making limitations and the human inability to cope with optimized thinking. Gerd talks about simple alternatives to a full rationalizing analysis and how simple heuristics frequently lead to better decisions than the theoretically optimal procedure. After you read Gerd, heuristics suddenly start to sound better than what behavioral finance made it out to be - just an error.

This is not the first time great ideas have been ignored. Herbert’s initial thoughts on Artificial intelligence were ignored for 7 years. But the paper which I feel has not got its due attention in economics and psychology is the one he wrote in 1962 on the ‘Architecture of complexity’.

In that paper, he said that complexity frequently takes the form of hierarchy. Systems are hierarchic systems independent of specific content. Systems are interrelated at higher and lower levels. There are elementary subsystems. He detailed hierarchical social systems, biological, symbolic, self reproducing systems and even hierarchic structures in social interactions. Complexity had to evolve from simplicity. This was Herbert’s attempt to explain power law distributions (exponentiality in nature). Path of construction of a complex system is through the theory of hierarchy. If time is indeed a triad and hierarchical, we can easily comprehend Herbert’s architecture of complexity.

Can behavioral finance also suffer from bounded rationality? Claiming humans to be irrational when they were the ones who created such great things in the first place (including markets), the irrationality does not seem to add up somewhere. So the few questions for behavioral finance could be linked with the order. Can behavioral finance define and quantify long reversals in markets? Are these long reversals recurring? How different are these long reversals from the subject of time cycles (order) written over the last few hundred years? If investor autonomy is worthless (Benartzi, Thaler), finding Peter Lynch is tough (Hersh Shefrin) how can investors chose between passive index alternatives? Is there an order between passive index performances? Is this performance cyclical? If market success connected to addition and subtraction (Thaler, Lamont) what is the mathematics in long reversals and behavioral finance? We got the idea of irrationality but where is the model of rationality which Herbert proposed? How does behavioral finance change if time is the order Herbert was mentioning?

The Architecture of Complexity
A behavioral model of rational choice

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Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

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Ranking Social Mood

Quantifying social mood is the next step after Behavioral finance and Socionomic theory.

The last time we made a case in favor of football compared to baseball under the backdrop of Robert Prechter’s Socionomics, the study of human social behavior. Immediately after the post I was corrected by experts from Socionomics explaining why football was also a bullish sport like baseball.

These were their observations, “Mukul, we’re going to tentatively label Soccer, or Football, a bull market sport unless evidence shows otherwise. We first toyed with the idea that attendance figures of the World Cup might give us a clue as to determine if Soccer is a bull or bear market sport. The only correlation we found is that attendance size is relative to the host country. For example, attendance in England (1966) is much higher than Chile (1962). Next, we followed the history of soccer, from its primitive conception to the present and found that the game was allowed by authorities and official rules were adopted during bull markets. On the flip-side, England banned the sport during the bear market of 1314. But to make things more confusing, Queen Elizabeth I banned the sport in 1517, but it was not rigorously enforced. Soccer Stars: Pele is heralded as the best soccer player on the planet and his career was during the bull market from 1957-1971. There is physical contact in soccer but not to the same degree as compared to American football, Hockey or Rugby.”

You can read the complete article on Alrroya

To read the complete report with rankings and historical performance cycles on top social mood indices subscribe to Time Triads. For more information on Time Triads mail us at [email protected]


Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

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Long football, short baseball

Just like everything else even big ticket sports outperform and underperform each other cyclicality, owing to time cycles.

Economics is at the soul of everything including big ticket sports. Now that football is the number 1 sport in the world, the growth might look obvious. But it has taken more than a few decades for football to attain this cult. Was it chance that we reached here to a 1 billion audience, was it smart visionaries that made it happen or was it social behavior?

Robert Prechter’s Socionomics challenges the standard presumption that social mood is buffeted by economic, political, cultural trends and events. News of such events affects the social mood, which in turn affects people’s penchant for investing, spending and the sports that they enjoy. What Socionomics proposed was that social mood was patterned and was a natural product of human interaction. It’s the social moods trend that determines the character of every social action including the sports that we watch and make popular. Measuring popularity of sport may be tricky. What could be the measure of success for any sport? Is it attendance, ratings, salaries of players, records? It’s all of them and more.

A recent study conducted by MLBAmerica.com showed that baseball did not rank number one on the list of favorite sports for 13 to 17 year olds. It didn’t rank second, third or fourth. It was ranked fifth. behind basketball, football, soccer, and hockey. Baseball is slowly but surely falling behind in the ranks of other sports. Sixty-eight percent of youth said that the main reason they don’t like baseball was because it was boring. This is not what the future is made off. The attendance growth relatively or absolutely is bound to drop. Now one may say, in retrospect it all looks fine. You should read Prechter’s pioneering studies in Socionomics and you will read repeated forecasts of selling baseball clubs, taking profits on baseball cards, signing long term contracts for players and crash of salaries and celebrity values. Prechter saw it coming and he was right on target.

Baseball was on one side and on the other we now have Pele, Zidane and Maradona featured in the Louis Vuitton ad with “three exceptional journeys. One historic game”. One can really see the value shifting from baseball to football. Socionomics explains how sports can provide a background for extreme emotions. Despite how it sounds, football was classified as a bear market sport and baseball a sport for bull markets. In the bull market good guys are the good guys while in bear markets bad guys are the good guys. This may all look so subjective, but violence in sports can be measured. Boxing is more violent than say a match of basketball, it’s clear.

Sports can also be judged for the level of contact. How many red cards did you see in the first few matches? All of them according to me were reasonable. Red cards and yellow cards is a violence check. Baseballs’ positive correlation to Dow and footballs’ negative correlation are easy to prove, when you see Dow 10,000 for more than a decade, all when football was thriving. The characterization seems reasonable.

More than the characterization, it’s the cyclicality of the whole thing which seems hard to counter. FIFA is trying to come out clear after a history of corruption. This was a similar story with baseball as it was reinventing itself in its hay days. Now the records are more in football than baseball. Consistent new records are an expression of exponentiality. Socionomics refers to this exponentiality as the wave theory. We plotted the rankings for the top winners Germany, Italy, Brazil, England, Argentina and Spain over the history of world cups. Exponential growth in points in favor and against was a standard norm.

Exponentiality just like everywhere else in nature also drives cyclicality in sports. A growth in performance of one team is at the expense of less relative growth or decay of the other. What can be seen on the big picture as a growth in football came at the expense of baseball. And this can be understood at the level of performance of Germany vs. Brazil or Italy vs. France. Unfortunately sports data is not as comprehensive as stock market data. This makes ranking processes and workings to prove performance cyclicality shallow.

We don’t want to make it all work and no play. So on a lighter note, here goes the sports bet. Brazil, Germany, Italy have been in the top 3 positions, 9, 10 and 7 times respectively since 1930s. This makes them the top rankers. Performance cycles suggest that top rankers disappoint and worst rankers surprise as performance reverses. The question of value for money does not come from picking a previous winner but one who has more odds against it. This why Argentina with a 4 time rank in top 3 and England with just 1 win since 1930′s makes them good potential best value pick. Social behavior like everything is mathematical, but then mathematics cannot give as much pleasure as a world cup final. It’s sometime good to just enjoy.

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Inputs from Ben and Euan from Socionomics

Mukul, we’re going to tentatively label Soccer, or Futbol, a bull market sport unless evidence shows otherwise. Read below to see our analysis. If you come across any evidence supporting the case that it is a bear market sport, please let us know.

We first toyed with the idea that attendance figures of the World Cup might give us a clue as to determine if Soccer is a bull or bear market sport. The only correlation we found is that attendance size is relative to the host country. For example, attendance in England (1966) is much higher than Chile (1962).

Next, we followed the history of soccer, from its primitive conception to the present and found that the game was allowed by authorities and official rules were adopted during bull markets. On the flip-side, England banned the sport during the bear market of 1314. But to make things more confusing, Queen Elizabeth I banned the sport in 1517, but it was not rigorously enforced.

Soccer Stars: Pele is heralded as the best soccer player on the planet and his career was during the bull market from  1957-1971.

Conclusion: Soccer is a bull market sport but no more than basketball, baseball or golf. There is physical contact in soccer but not to the same degree as compared to American football, Hockey or Rugby.

Considerations for further study: Attendance figures of English soccer leagues adjusted by population.

Sources: World Cup: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/archive/index.html
Timeline: http://www.my-youth-soccer-guide.com/soccer-history-timeline.html
Pele: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pel%C3%A9

Thanks,
Ben and Euan

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Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Econohistory, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on Time patterns, Time forecasts, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

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The failed state


The failure of state is a cyclical event connected with debt. The reason we are never prepared to handle it is because we as a society are cycle blind.

A search on “state”, “failed state” will bring out search results like real estate, United States, state insurance, anything but the idea of state. It’s not only on the world wide web, but even real societies that still struggle to accept the idea of a failed state. Now that Hungary’s potential default is in news, the question how the state managed to fail is pretty relevant.

Why does a state fail? What does failure encompass? Is it just about payment defaults, cutting pensions, being unable to generate jobs or growth, failing the poor, failing the trust of its own people or it something cyclical? It’s not the first time politicians failed the people. In an article written by Martin Armstrong in 1991 ‘The Cycles of Political and Economic Change’ in the Cycles magazine, the author quotes Cicero before the senate of Rome in 63 BC. “The budget should be balanced, the treasury should be refilled, public debt should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands be curtailed lest (we) become bankrupt.”

Armstrong wrote in 1991 “These words serve as a fresh reminder of cycles, no matter how much we believe things have changed, indeed, much remains the same” Looking at the current state of affairs, the only thing which comes back is the cycle. The issue of debt has been with man from the beginning of time. Though popular belief holds that prostitution is the oldest profession, the banker (money lender) is truly the oldest profession.  Man’s history of debt is a history of crisis. Virtually every known war has been fought for economic reasons, usually disguised by some noble saying or religious slogan. But without hardship or greed, there would be no incentive for war.

The Soviet Union break up was a direct result of economics and the crisis is debt that the communist government managed to create. The American Revolution was fought for economics. Saddled with escalating debt, England levied excessive taxes on it’s colonies. Worst yet, it demanded that the colonies pay all taxes in gold, while England paid for colonial goods in copper. The king sought to bleed colonies to reduce his debt at home. That unfair policy, born from a crisis in debt, sparked the American Revolution.

Raymond Wheeler’s 300 year cycles based on his many years of research into cultural cycles and the recurring cultural curve mentioned that culture is revived in a Renaissance of classical, idealistic themes. Tyranny prevails as the state becomes dominant over the individual. During “cold” epochs, civil rebellion ushers in democratic reform and a revival in importance of the individual.

Thomas Jefferson said, “Man cannot be trusted with the government of himself.” History has answered Jefferson a thousand times with a cycle of unqualified regularity. No matter how noble a form of government starts out to be, it always degenerates into the very thing it was created to replace. I believe there are more instances of the abridgement of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations.

All forms of governments start our as benevolent seeking to correct the evils of its predecessor. But given enough time “silent encroachment” takes place.  Looking at history, mankind acts like a dog chasing its own tail, running around in endless cycles.

End of Roman Empire, the year 476 is generally accepted as the formal end of the Western Roman Empire. That year, Orestes refused the request of Germanic mercenaries in his service for lands in Italy. The dissatisfied mercenaries, led by Odoacer, revolted, and deposed the last western emperor, Romulus Augustus.

The fall of the Ottoman Empire can also be attributed to the failure of its economic structure, with the size of the empire creating difficulties integrating its diverse regions economically. Also, the empire’s communication technology was not developed enough to reach all territories. In many ways, the circumstances surrounding the Ottoman Empire’s fall closely paralleled those surrounding the decline of the Roman Empire, particularly in the ongoing internal tensions. Similar internal tensions brought the Spanish empire down.

The failure is connected with mass psychology, which at one stage wants to be lead and at one state wants to be lead. The failure is linked with problems of a large economy which fails to grow beyond a stage and starts to exhaust. But more than anything the failed state is connected with the failure of character of our leaders, who start on a good note but end up undoing the same good intentions. A failure of state starts with debt and ends with debt. The best part is that it’s all cyclical, forecastable and hence avoidable to the extent of reduced pain. The worst part, majority of us move up and down as the time cycle dictates, punishing us for being cycle blind.

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The excitement cycles

National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Sunspots

A J Tchijevsky’s excitement cycles, reopens the debate of Time.

The success in the new age is a lot different from what we experienced 11 years back. The shy public which needed market research surveys to bring out feedback is keener to offer comments. There were 30 odd comments on the Oil forecast, 398 comments on a dirty sport tackle on the yahoo sports blog and 425 comments on the 13 year old Everest climber. Are we in excited times? Or do you think we as a society are a bit less excited than what we were a few years back? Do these times polarize us as a society? Do we become indifferent? Is there some way we can quantify excitement? Can this quantification help us forecast? Can it tell us before our odds of success or failure? Can it tell us how to plan our investments and life? Can it tell us what movies to make? What products and business to launch? Does this excitement ever fall? Simply we are asking ourselves is excitement cyclical? And if it is cyclical, is cyclicality a science? But before we come to the science part, how time cycles are measurable and how it can revolutionize our understanding of the world around us, let’s have a closer look at excitement.

In December 1926, at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society Professor A J Tchijevsky’s (researcher at Astronomical Observatory, Institute of Biological Physics, Archeological Institute, Moscow) paper was presented, which elaborated the index of Mass human excitability, 500 B.C. - A.D.1922. This index showed a consistent pattern of 9 waves of excitability per century over the entire span of 2422 years. The index was compiled from detailed statistical researches in the histories of 72 countries and nations of the world.

Tchijevsky found not only that this index was characterized by the 11.1 year cycles, but that the crests of these cycles tended to correlate with crests of sunspot cycles. “In the paper published in the Cycles magazine of Foundation of Cycles 1968 issue professor quotes” As soon as the sunspot activities approaches its maximum, the number of important mass historical events, taken as a whole, increases, approaching its maximum during the sunspot maximum and decreases to its minimum during the periods of the sunspot minimum. Each cycle is divided into four periods. Minimum of excitability (3 years), Growth of excitability (2 years), maximum of excitability (3 years), decline of excitability (3 years).

Over nearly a hundred years since the research was published, a few things have changed. In the extreme point of the cycle’s course, the tension of the all human activity falls to the minimum, giving way to creativity and a general decrease of military or political enthusiasm, by peace and peaceful creative work and a disintegration of masses. The last sunspot cycle started in 1998, peaked in 2000 and bottomed in 2009. The society emerges out of excitability lows.

Now this is where the observations begin. The human excitability is at a 11 year low and we are in a few years of growth and prosperity. This might sound surprising and contrary to popular belief that we are in for a double dip recession. Excitability cycles tell us that from the lows in 2010, a multiyear equity bull should emerge. But there are strange coincidences here? Excitability cycles are not only in sync with sunspot cycles but also with a decade long Clement Juglar cycles.

The scientists say, don’t show me cycles and patterns coincidences everywhere. Show me the proof. Even professor Tchijevsky’s work did not get so much popularity as few could explain why excitability index was leading the sunspot cycles by an average 12 months. At some stage of thinking cyclists wondered that there was a force that affects both human beings and sunspots simultaneously. Proving why periodicity happened takes time cycle analysis to a scientific level.

Scientific rationalism against Time can be sticky ground. Specially because there is a lot more than empirical proof out there which suggest that time is mathematical and ordered, the reason for the coincidences, sunspots, growth etc. The first proof is History itself. Though the society uses the cliché that ‘history repeats’, it never asks is repetitive history not periodicity, recurrence in time, time cyclicality? Other clichés like ‘space and time are unruled by any law’ interferes with the truth. The whole idea is that if Einstein could not understand time, who can? History was always considered knowledge not science. Karl Lamprecht, German Historian showcased the order, history’s practical purpose was always considered doubtful. How naive of us.

Time is exponential and it is the one which gives nature and society its cycles. Periodicity and recurrence happens in society and stock markets because of this order. Time is why everything natural is cyclical, even human excitement. We can connect Sun with excitement or anything else, our behavior as a society is predictable. It was too much of a truth then when Professor Tchijevsky was jailed. How much of it is a truth now? We will see.

This article was written for Alrroya

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The gold exponential

Exponentiality is associated with herding not with value. Exponentiality can be defined as rising inclination in prices, larger gains in smaller time which visually looks like a rocket headed into sky or a bottom less pit. A look at Gold prices suggests this positive exponentiality.

Exponential Function

Look at platinum in (1999-2008), look at zinc (2003-2006), look at Dow (1974 – 2007).  Just to make the case clearer we have juxtaposed Dow (1974-2007) with gold (1999-2010), they look similar. Now this is not the classic intermarket chart we see every day, as gold is considered an asset of bad times, while Dow is for good times. Gold is also known as the crisis commodity that prospers in tough times. So the important questions one can ask is are we in an ongoing crisis as rising gold prices suggest? Or are we looking at an ending crisis as exponentiality and topping of gold suggests?

If we look at the element of time gold has been rising for a record 10 years without a retracement more than 38.2%. The metal has not witnessed a fall bigger than 9 months in time. While the Dow price exponential structure (1974-2007) topped in Oct 2007 and crashed 50%. Building on the case, we have more of a topping case for gold here and an easing crisis rather than what seems to be out there.

Out there we have sovereign risk, euro under attack, more than 12 month old recovery and if we look at the sentiment indicator, all time historical highs on gold will generate bullish sentiment extremes . This means more of an exhausting, up but topping case than otherwise.  To understand gold further we also plotted the precious metals against Euro and Japanese Yen. The aim was to take out the dollar bias. Gold denominated in Euro and Yen both were at weekly momentum extremes. Gold in Yen was still below 1980’s high and Gold denominated in Euro was gapping in the Reuters 3000Xtra charts. Considering EURUSD has also gapped recently on daily data, we are not surprised that price gaps on gold euro are conspicuous.

A closer look at industrial metals also suggest down structures. How can industrial metals correct while gold and silver push higher? Is this not a non confirmation? Even now things don’t add up if you are expecting a primary (more than 9 months)degree crisis. Things add up, if we assume intermediate negativity on equity markets not heading into Q4 followed by a global recovery.  We will have to wait and see how the respective picture unfolds.

This article was written for Alrroya

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The Competitiveness Cycles

Competitiveness is a redundant idea, if we ignore cyclicality.

Competitiveness is a comparative concept of the ability and performance of a firm, sub-sector or country. It’s a ranking system based on a host of parameters. The Global competitiveness report 2009-2010 from the World Economic Forum measures competitiveness based on 12 pillars.

First is the Institution pillar, which aims at quantifying the direct role played by the state in the economy of many countries. The whole structure of competitiveness stands challenged now that the world faces sovereign risk. How can you rank a country in competitiveness if it is being bailed out? Or should we ask how competitive a country is to emerge out of a sovereign risk crisis? This is a question conventional knowledge can’t answer. Another pillar is the macroeconomic stability, which again the report says could be a double edged sword if interest rate payments and inflation rises? How competitive you are as a nation compared to others if global interest rates rise?

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Cycles of Entrepreneurship

I was at an entrepreneurship workshop conducted by Peter B. Zaboji. Peter was a professor at Insead and also a corporate restructuring expert. He turned around a loss making company with 10,000 people taking Tenovis to management case books. Peter’s aim was to implant the entrepreneurship fire in his audience and assist entrepreneurs with a road map towards private equity. Peter came with an elite list of speakers. Piroska Zoli (a silicon valley netpreneur) and Imre Hild (a financial innovator from Hungary) were two of the seven speakers.

Ideas and cases

Coming from an economic background I could relate more to Imre’s idea. He found an opportunity selling LARE (Life Annuity for Real Estate) to a selected Hungarian audience. LARE is now a part of OTP (Hungarian Bank). Imre saw the opportunity, a need for a financial instrument for war widows, who had no one to hand over their real estate assets and hence the need to commoditize it in their life. For a fixed annuity, the widows would sell their land to the bank. The idea pushed Imre in the list of successful financial innovators for the region.

Peter consistently emphasized on looking at the glass half full rather than the half empty highlighting the marketing genius of Dietrich Mateschitz, an Austrian entrepreneur. During his visit to Thailand in 1982 he discovered that Krating Daeng (a local drink) that helped to cure his jet lag. Red Bull was born.

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