Posts published by "Orpheus":

Orpheus turns 7 :-)

 

We thank all our readers and members for great 7 years. We enjoyed every bit of it and are still enjoying. Orpheus is in Budapest this week for the upcoming 4 Oct Conference.

Orpheus Team


Market Quotes

If you shut down our power grid, maybe we will put a missile down one of your smokestacks.

A US military official in response to Hacker attacks on Pentagon

Much of our pleasure and pain in life stem from expectations of future and these pleasure and pains have profound implications for behavior.

Stanley Jevons

We feel less concerned about future sensations of joy and sorrow simply because they do lie in the future, and lessening of concern is in proportion to the remoteness of that future.

Bohm Bawerk

In nature there are no rewards or punishments there are only consequences.

The movement of money from one area to another is inherently unsustainable and destined to reverse itself. The money pilling up in the pockets of the citizens of the gaining country will encourage them to go out and buy things, while the loss of purchasing power in the losing country will lead its citizens of the gaining country will encourage them to go out and buy things, while the loss of purchasing power in the losing country will lead its citizens to tighten their belts and buy less; prices will rise in the gaining country and fall in the losing country. This shift in demand will in time reverse the flow of money back to the country that first suffered the outflow. As a result it is impossible to heap up money, more than any other fluid, beyond its proper level.

David Hume, Of the Balance of Trade

Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought.

Albert Szent-Gyorgi, Nobel Prize Winner, Medicine, 1937

‘I had to do so much with so little, for so long, that I can do anything with nothing.’

Chris Gardner, quotes his mother

Buying at the start of a bubble is “rational”

George Soros talking on Gold

Against a world average of around four hospital beds per 1000 population, India lags behind at just over 0.72.

KPMG Health Care Report

You can’t suddenly make India a China.

Surya Sethi, World Bank Official commenting on India’s Power sector

As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing, because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.

William Stanley Jevons

Formal education will make you a living, self education make a fortune.

Jim Rohn

More money was lost trying to get the last TICK than was made catching the whole move.

Bernard Baruch

Simplicity or singleness of approach is a greatly underestimated factor of market success.

Garfield Drew

The crowd is actually correct most of the time and it is at turning points that they get things wrong.

Humphrey Neill

The element of time can no more be eliminated from successful speculation… than from any other business.

Thomas Gibson, The facts about speculation 1923

Stocks don’t sell for what they are worth but for what people think they are worth.

Garfield Drew

Danger of losing your position in the middle of the trend.

Edward LeFevre’s, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

“It looks as if 1000 in the Average could be our next major target.”

Hamilton Bolton,April 1964, Dow Jones Industrial 812, Extracts from Elliott Wave Reviews, The Writings of A. Hamilton Bolton

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

John Maynard Keynes

“The Efficient Market Hypothesis can land you in jail”

Dismal science, dismal sentence, Sep 7, 2006 - The Economist Print Edition

In one respect markets are like houses. They take longer to build than they do to tear down. Markets spend most of their time advancing rather than declining. This means that the lead characteristics of momentum indicators are usually more pronounced at market peaks than at troughs.

Martin Pring on Market Momentum

“The laws of nature, and incidentally economics, are ruthless, which is as it should be”

Ralph N Elliott, Biography, R.N.Elliott’s Masterworks

“Logic always applies, if your premises are correct and knowledge sufficient”

Robert Prechter,The Writings of A. Hamilton Bolton

“It is foolish to short emerging markets, they are so euphoric that it is too dangerous”.

Emerging Market Investor, Apr 06

“Phenomena of mass action (are) under impulsions and controls which no science has explored”

Bernard Baruch, Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds, 1932

B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculator’s paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a narrow list of stocks, are often “unconfirmed” by other averages, are rarely technically strong and are virtually always doomed to complete the retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, “there is something wrong with this market”, chances are it’s a B wave.

Frost & Prechter

When markets are topping, there is always another top. And when markets bottom there is always another bottom.

Aristata

There has been no change in demand and supply. How did prices fall from $78 to $58 per barrel?

P Chidambaram, Finance Minister, India
CII (Confedration of Indian Industry) and the World Economic Forum, Nov 27, 2006

The less secure we are economically the more secure we are economically.

Carl J. Schramm. The Entrepreneurial Imperative

Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits - a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.

John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, 161-162

Greed arrogance and unscrupulousness are the way of the world

Economist - Teaching of Conrad Black’s Father

Peasant Logic - Scare your opponent enough, and he will give you what you want.

Khruschev’s Cold War

Journalism needs to become a community service rather than a profit centre.

Craig Newmark, of Craigslist

“January 1 will enter history books as a moment of irreversible change toward a more secure and prosperous future,”

President Traian Basescu told Romania’s parliament.

75% of all stocks move up with a bull market, and 90% of all stocks move down with a bear market.

Anonymous

Vivid examples of planning failures and partial reforms—for example, a quarter of all shoes sold in Hungary in 1951 were officially classed as substandard.

Mr Eichengreen

“I got into this market to make $100,000 a year and feed my family and to allow my wife to stay home with the kids. I never in my wildest dreams thought we’d be here at the center of the U.S. equities market.”

Dave Cummings, BATS

“I think what the Fed is trying to tell us is that it is between a rock and a hard place. And when you’re between and a rock and a hard place, you just can’t move,”

Drew Matus, senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings

There are only three sports - bullfighting, motor racing, and mountaineering.

Hemingway

The “great redeeming feature of poverty,” George Orwell wrote after his excursions in the social gutters of Paris and London, is “the fact that it annihilates the future”.

Uproar is the music of capitalism

Joseph Schumpeter

Putting a biomass water-heater in the basement tends to be easier than sticking a windmill on the roof.

Economist

Ethanol can be produced in backyard plants.

Economist

Markets tend to do a better job then the STATE and Economists

Aristata

“If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”

Saying in Washington

20% of Denmark’s energy come from WINDS

WIND STATISTICS

The carbon market is truly innovative. The trade is not actually in carbon, but in not carbon.

Economist

The five dirty industries covered by ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) are ELECTRICITY, OIL, METALS, BUILDING MATERIALS AND PAPER .

Economist

“In business, you reward people for taking risks. When it doesn’t work out, you promote them because they were willing to try new things. If people come back and tell me they skied all day and never fell down, I tell them to try a different mountain.”

Bloomberg 0607

“SKY - high copper prices; rock bottom education”

Student Banner in CHILE, 1006

10 million Indonesians live on $1 a day, and 100 million on $2 a day

Econostats

A new theory is attacked as absurd;then it is admitted to be true, but obvious and insignificant; finally, it is seen to be so important that it’s adversaries claim that they themselves have discovered it.

William James

One day the world will be ready for you and wonder how they didn’t see it

Eels

In business, success often depends upon the relative age of your ideas. And today, people of all ages are in trouble because their ideas aren’t just old, they’re obsolete. One example of an old idea is that of the traditional job. Jobs are a centuries-old concept created during the industrial revolution. Despite the reality that we’re now deep in the Information Age, many people are studying for, or working at, or clinging to the Industrial Age idea of a safe, secure job.

Kiosaki

One notorious sceptic of the Asian miracle was Paul Krugman, who had argued before the crisis that Asia’s growth was the result of “perspiration rather than inspiration”, based on increasing inputs of capital and labour rather than productivity gains, and would therefore prove unsustainable.

East Asian Economics, 10 year Crisis Anniversary

Once China’s currency the Yuan, is fully convertible, Honk Kong will be just another Chinese port.

Hong Kong Pessimists

Gay households is growing five times faster than the population itself. The last consensus in 200 counted 600000 same sex couples. Most Fortune 500 companies paid offered the same health insurance to employee gay partners as to spouses first time last year.

Gary Gates

If factories go, there will be nothing left

Sarkozy

Nation is not at war, the military is at war

US Military commanders

A superpower can lose a war - in Vietnam or Iraq - without ceasing to be a superpower.

Robert Kagan

4.6% of World’s (Defense spending) population in USA with a 27.5% World GDP spends 46% of total World defense budget ($1.2 trillion.)

US Factsheet

The trouble though, is that America’s forces were designed for sprints not marathons

Pentagon

I am proud to be a speculator. I am proud that my humble attempts to predict Tuesday’s prices on Monday are an indispensable component of our society. By buying low and selling high, I create harmony and freedom,

Victor Niederhoffer

There is always an easy solution to every human problem — neat, plausible and wrong.

H. L. Mencken

There are no failures, merely different outcomes.

Penny Thornton

Just when you think you’ve found the key to wall street, they go and change the locks.

Granville


Alpha India ME - The Rieki hedge

The main purpose of having a portfolio is diversification, which reduces risk. Investing with Rieki is about matching outperformers against underperformers. This is like investing in pairs. However, instead of developing individual pairs, matching an asset with another say Suzlon (potential outperformer) vs. Bajaj Auto (potential underperformer), Rieki portfolio lets you adopt a combination strategy. This new approach invests in two groups of assets and not just in individual assets alone. One is a group of outperformers and the other group contains underperformers.

How does this help? First it lets us pick up the best value from a universe of stocks. Second, it reduces risk by giving us the opportunity to short potential underperformers, hence reducing portfolio risk by creating a strategy hedge. Third, it increases our holding period for the overall portfolio. We can hold and accumulate the long spot for a longer period of time and similarly we can hold futures beyond intraday volatilities. The Reiki portfolio accumulation approach of value picks keeps us prepared to capture the next stage of the bull market that should start in 2011.

Fourth, this approach also allows us to play according to the underlying bias of the market. If the intermediate multi week market view is negative. We could churn our short futures portfolio actively. We could have more short components against few value spot picks (though the value hedge between long and short is maintained). The market bias can be judged by a trending system, by the ongoing VIX structure, by the view on INR and by a host of factors. The LOSO trending systems that we use is negatively inclined now. In case the bias is positive. Instead of short futures, one could look at using option strategies for the short side of the portfolio (for the potential underperformers).

We have assumed a leverage of 4 times for the short portfolio. This means an average leverage of 2 times for the overall portfolio. We have illustrated the Rieki portfolio with the best and worst components of the pair grid mentioned in our earlier features. It consists of four long trades (Reliance, Tech Mahindra, Suzlon and Reliance Power) and five shorts (Bajaj Auto, Federal Bank, Bank of Baroda, Cummins and Tata Motors).

As one can see the spot portfolio moved from -1% to -10% in the last 10 trading days closing Thursday at 8% negative. The enclosed Rieki portfolio illustrates the running futures and closed trades. The net portfolio is down 1% outperforming the overall market by 7%. The value of the portfolio is nearly 50,000 Euros (INR 30 lakh).

On the sector side, BSE Consumer Durables and NIFTY VIX remain the two extremities of the sector numeric ranking. BSE Auto, Healthcare, FMCG should underperform in the next weeks, while BSE Realty, BSE Metals, BSE Power and INR Futures are best hold and outperformers. So Rieki will be looking for auto, healthcare and FMCG shorts and best hold (buy) opportunities in Power and Metals.

The intermediate (multi week) view on the overall market remains negative. Any potential subminor correction up should end early next week after which Nifty should head towards our anticipated targets at 5,600-5,400 levels. The Indian Rupee is weakening as anticipated, triggering further negativity on the equity side. We also expect further rise of NIFTY VIX till 26-28 levels.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009


The Index Rieki

Index Rieki depicts the performance cyclicality of an Index. Just like a stock outperforms and underperforms, so does an index witness seasonality in performance. The difference between an Index Rieki and stock Rieki is that an Index is an average of stock prices and hence is less volatile than the stock. This is the reason an Index Rieki will rarely go to extreme ranking like (best or worst).
Rieki works like an oscillator. A falling oscillator is negative suggesting underperformance and vice versa. Rieki oscillators can be studied like conventional momentum indicators. We can look for non confirmations, head and shoulder patterns, supports and resistance.

The latest Alpha carries the anticipated and happened cases on Hungarian BUX and Stoxx Euro 50 (Ticks. Global). Now ATX and Czech PX are ready to reverse. Dollar Index is running positive both on LOSO and Rieki. CEERIUS Index is already negative and with a topping Rieki suggests further negative confirmation. We don’t have an encouraging picture on most equity indices including the local Romanian indices. BETNG has a topping Rieki and negative LOSO. We continue to look at negativity underperformance for the respective index.

The Alpha 54 coverage includes the following equity and commodity Indices. Hungarian BUX, Dow Jones Industrials, Bulgarian REITs, Stoxx Euro 50, Polish WIG, Austrian ATX, Czech PX, Gold and Silver Index, Dollar Index, Natural Gas Index and Brent Crude.

The latest Alpha carries the anticipated and happened cases on Hungarian BUX and Stoxx Euro 50 (Ticks. Global). Now ATX and Czech PX are ready to reverse. Dollar Index is running positive both on LOSO and Rieki. CEERIUS Index is already negative and with a topping Rieki suggests further negative confirmation. We don’t have an encouraging picture on most equity indices including the local Romanian indices. BETNG has a topping Rieki and negative LOSO. We continue to look at negativity underperformance for the respective index.

The Alpha Romania 54 coverage includes the following equity and commodity Indices. Hungarian BUX, Dow Jones Industrials, Bulgarian REITs, Stoxx Euro 50, Polish WIG, Austrian ATX, Czech PX, Gold and Silver Index, Dollar Index, Natural Gas Index and Brent Crude.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Alpha India Indices - Sector ranking

The minor view on the overall market remains negative with a potential subminor correction up now that prices reached first key Fibonacci supports. NIFTY is heading towards our anticipated targets at 5,600-5,400 levels. NIFTY VIX seems to be in an ongoing Ending Diagonal formation, while INR continues to hold anticipated 46 resistances.

BSE Consumer Durables and NIFTY VIX remain the two extremities of the sector numeric ranking. BSE Auto, Healthcare, FMCG should underperform in the next weeks, while BSE Realty, BSE Metals, BSE Power and INR Futures are best buys.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: 100 top traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Orpheus Store

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009


Alpha.Rom - Elliott and LOSO

Elliott wave is a price pattern theory which suggests the trends move in five wave formations and counter trend moves in three wave structures. After a five wave completes prices retrace in a three wave structure. Orpheus LOSO trending system is slow and seeks price confirmation before reversing. The LOSO tracker will only alert us in case a trend is in place and not otherwise. So in the case of SIF5 till the time counter trend is weak and not challenging the previous down trend SIF5 will remain negative. LOSO is now negative on most financials along with best sell BVB and BRK. SIF2 and SIF4 are the new shorts. BVB and BRK remain the top ranking shorts. BETFI is also negative on LOSO and Rieki.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Alpha India EE - Corporation and Canara Bank ready to fall

Banks remain the top performers of the Early Economic sector. The numeric ranking illustrated here indicates more components from the Banking sector. 8 of the 20 top performers are banks: Federal Bank, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, Corporation Bank, Andhra Bank, Syndicate Bank, Axis Bank and IDBI Bank.

We expect Nsebank to underperform the broad market in the weeks ahead. We have illustrated here the technical view which suggests psychological 10,000 as a potential intermediate target (previous A wave highs and key Fibonacci supports).

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: 100 top traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009


RRC delivers 18%

Though the last LOSO negative signal on RRC delivered 9%, the trending system has been negative for 163 days out of 193 trading days since 14 may. During this period RRC fell by 18%. Trending systems work best in trended markets. The RIEKI performance cycles remains up but topping and even technically we don’t have a reversal signal yet. RSI momentum is oversold, but still negative. We have illustrated the OIL prices, which are also suggesting an exhausting structure. The minor trend remains negative for the stock. The latest Alpha carries the late economic update with the LOSO tracker update. Prefab delivered 10%.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Alpha India LE - The Rieki portfolio

Classic pair trading is about matching Asset A with Asset B. Rieki pair trading is about matching outperformers against underperformers. It’s a combination of assets. Outperformers are long spot trades and underperformers are short futures trade. We have illustrated a tradable portfolio designed on Indian markets. Here we have matched the exposures on the long and short side. The total exposure is near INR 50 lakh (80,000 Euros). The closed trades are LIC Housing and Bajaj Auto futures. We have rolled over LIC housing in Dec futures.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: 100 top traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Orpheus Store

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Alpha.Rom - The TGN trap

When the trending systems gives only a few buy signals and coincidentally those few buys are also the best performers among 54 assets than you can be sure it’s a trap.

TGN is still a buy on the trending system as the prices continue to stay near historical tops. However, the very fact that TGN is the best of the best and the rest of the market is in negative indicates that TGN is a trap and the market bias is clearly negative. TGN is going to reverse sooner than later.

All of TLV, BRK, RRC, TRANSELECTRICA, COMI, SIF5 DEC, SIF1, SIF3, SIF5, TERPLAST, IMPACT, BETFI, BET, ALUMIL, AMO, ARMATURA, CEON, PREFAB, HUNGARIAN BUX are negative.

We have updated Alpha with the latest Rieki.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).