Archive for the ‘Agro’ category

Time to short Guar

We talked about topping Guar Jiseki cycle first on 13 Sep. Now the Jiseki cycles have turned down and Guar is also done with the bounce back. This should be an excellent opportunity to Short Guar.

The latest Alpha Agro carries anticipated and happened cases on Chana, Soybean Oil, Ground Nut and Sugar. The view on Cotton and Palm Oil is topping and negative on the intermediate multi week view. Masoor remains a great bottoming story.

We have carried a special case on Coriander along with a last mile technical case on the commodity.

Enjoy the latest Alpha India Agro special.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. The current agro complex comparison puts Cotton and Sugar at the top and sesame and wheat at the bottom near 10%. Such low percentile rankings make Sesame and Wheat attractive holds. To latest report carries the Jiseki cycles for the agro assets with targets and projections for wheat, soybeans, coffee, sesame and coriander.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Global: Commodities, Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Indices


Masoor ready to move 50% higher


The latest report carries anticipated and happened case on Masoor and other India agro commodities.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. The current agro complex comparison puts Cotton and Sugar at the top and sesame and wheat at the bottom near 10%. Such low percentile rankings make Sesame and Wheat attractive holds. To latest report carries the Jiseki cycles for the agro assets with targets and projections for wheat, soybeans, coffee, sesame and coriander.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Global: Commodities, Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Indices

 


Sesame (Anticipated and Happened) and multi month view.

The latest report carries anticipated and happened case on Masoor and other India agro commodities.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. The current agro complex comparison puts Cotton and Sugar at the top and sesame and wheat at the bottom near 10%. Such low percentile rankings make Sesame and Wheat attractive holds. To latest report carries the Jiseki cycles for the agro assets with targets and projections for wheat, soybeans, coffee, sesame and coriander.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Global: Commodities, Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Indices


The Guar-Seed Jiseki Cycle

One of the core advantages of looking at a group of assets is that one can combine non correlated and diverse components. This is what we did when we added NCDEX agro commodities to the 1000 asset global group. For us at Orpheus, the real comparative benchmark is not only intermarket (whether the asset is agro based or equity based) but also where it stands in terms of absolute performance on a comparative scale.

The aim of the exercise is to look at outliers. The top performers among the group have diverged out to an extreme and hence should reverse and the worst performers have pushed to a lower extreme oversold level and hence are likely to outperform the rest of the group components. Worst and best are illustrated with a percentile ranking, which are dynamic and create our Jiseki Time cycles (seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets). The performance percentile rankings range from 0 to 100.

Currently among the NCDEX agro assets, Guar Seed is a top performer which also ranks 80 percentile among a large global group of assets. 80 percent is high ranking for any asset whether it’s a local agro special or any other asset. High quarterly rankings are not sustainable for a continued period.

For example when Guar was sub 20 percentile rankings in September last year, it was a worst performer which could not stay low for long. The agro commodity has risen more than 100% in the last 12 months. Now Jiseki cycles have given a short term crossover and even the price structure seems like an ongoing corrective. The Jiseki cycle suggests that Guar Seed is ready for a high and reversal at least on a multi week basis. Every upside in Guar should be used to exit and reduce not because the commodity has a multi month rise behind it, but because it has topped performance on a quarterly basis. The performance of the commodity has reached an extreme. On the worst ranking extremes NCDEX has Masoor and Mustard offering multi month accumulation opportunities, but that’s another story.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

This article was written for ATMA.


Indian Agro - Jiseki Cycles special

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100.

The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

This special issue on Indian agro reviews Sesame, Coriander cycles we carried last time and  introduces Jiseki cycles on most of the Indian Agro assets. Mustard Oil and Masoor are the worst performers offering great multi month accumulation opportunities while Guar Seed is ready for a high and reversal. Every upside in Guar should be used to exit and reduce.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. The current agro complex comparison puts Cotton and Sugar at the top and sesame and wheat at the bottom near 10%. Such low percentile rankings make Sesame and Wheat attractive holds. To latest report carries the Jiseki cycles for the agro assets with targets and projections for wheat, soybeans, coffee, sesame and coriander.

 

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Global: Commodities, Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Indices


Agro Jiseki Cycles

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. The current agro complex comparison puts Cotton and Sugar at the top and sesame and wheat at the bottom near 10%. Such low percentile rankings make Sesame and Wheat attractive holds. To latest report carries the Jiseki cycles for the agro assets with targets and projections for wheat, soybeans, coffee, sesame and coriander.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Global: Commodities, Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Indices

 


The Dollar Collapse?

Now that EURUSD has broken a primary true trendline and heads to next resistance at 1.5, the dollar collapse is in the news. From a sentiment point of view the fall in dollar is nearly 12 month old and EUR has strengthened 25% against dollar during this period. This is a good time for sentiment to get bearish on dollar. If we go back in Jun 2010, it was EUR collapse that was in the news. And street talk was about EUR Dollar Parity. Sentiment rolls over with time. Now 1.5 is a key resistance for EURUSD and respective levels should also mark a sentiment extreme against Dollar. Above this the EURUSD price structure from Jun 2010 low does not seem to be a five wave trended structure. It looks more like a 3 wave corrective counter trend.

From a cycle point of view the weekly UUP Dollar ETF Jiseki cycles (red, blue, grey) are bottoming and suggesting that Dollar is more likely to bottom against global currencies than otherwise. Whether it take a few weeks or another quarter more is hard to say now. But when the dollar will reverse, the move should be secular and a larger one than what we have seen on 12 month EUR strengthening. Dollar could strengthen for a few years. What it means for European Union and what it means for the world at large, is something sentiment can not understand or visualize now. Sentiment like everything follows time. When the cycle is up, sentiment is up and vice versa. After 1.5 EURUSD we review.

In this latest Alpha Global we have carried Short Commodity ETF DDP daily and weekly Jiseki cycles. On the daily cycles DDP shows signs of bottoming while on an Intermediate time frame the commodity secular trend remains down. This means that even of commodity on an aggregate basis might fall, the larger multi year trend on commodities is still up. Copper, Sugar, Silver, Cotton are the top ranked over a quarter and hence most likely to continue underperformance. While Wind, livestock, Wheat, Cocoa are the worst commodities, which are likely to outperform. US Equity worst rankers (which are best potential holds and outperformers) are EXC, ERS, RTN, WPO. On Forex rankings US Dollar is the worst and Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc are the top rankers suggesting some underperformance on Australian dollar and Swiss Franc. The report also carries an Alpha Global hedge Portfolio.

 

Bibliography - Index

1: The Divergence Cycles0

2: The BRIC Model from a Japanese Perspective - Pre and Post Financial Crisis Review and Forecasts1

3: Time Fractals2

4: Temporal Changes in Shiller’s Exuberance Data3

5: Time Duration Decay in Romanian Capital Markets4

6: MTA Knowledge base – Performance Cycles5

7: Mean Reversion Cycles6

For regular updates on performance Cycles on Toronto Stock Exchange assets write to us today for a free trial for Orpheus Time Analytics.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

 


Coffee confirms a shooting star

 

To read more of such updates on Global Indices subscribe to Orpheus Research Reports.

This is a TICKS.GLOBAL update

 


Sugar at Resistance

Sugar (Sugar ETF) is at a 4 year resistance line and is making a potential key reversal bar. On an intermediate degree the prices have failed below key trendline supports. A minimum retracement should see prices push lower till 0.382 Fibonacci levels at 21.5.

Unlike Sugar which is showing signs of exhaustion, both Grains and Coffee are still in an upward trending channel. We need a price confirmation below respective channels. Coffee is testing the top of a multiyear channel, while grains are testing a multiyear channel support. Any reversal now could be the start of at least multi week negative trend on both grains and coffee.

The negativity of soft’s and grains could challenge the agricultural commodities uptrend and also should strengthen the topping commodity case. Jiseki cycles are negative on Sugar and all this topping case comes when Coffee is creating 14 year high news. A top performer, touching channel highs is more reason for us to look at reversals rather than accumulations.

To keep updated with performance cycles and rankings subscribe to Orpheus Research Reports.

This article is written for ATMA

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Top 50 Global Jiseki Rankings

Natural Gas is still the worst and Silver, Coffee, Sugar, Copper are the best. The surprise is EUR USD which is one of the worst performing pairs. The pair has not bottomed yet, but this case is not very encouraging for our iii of 3 on dollar. We will keep you posted.

Enjoy the latest Jiseki integrated rankings. We have integrated multiple degree of Time to create Jiseki Rankings.

Rieki and Jiseki are Japanese words for performance and performance cycles. Since we are speaking of multiple degrees of time, we use Rieki for performance cycle on one degree of Time and Jiseki for an integrated performance cycle for multiple degree of Time. Performance cycles are created from relative performance ranking. The above chart is the integrated ranking for Indian Health care sector. Cadila, Dr Redy’s and Sun are the top rankers. While Divi’s, Piramal and Cipla are the worst rankers. Orpheus performance cycles invest in the worst and sell the best. This is why the top short opportunities for Indian Health Care are respective top rankers and vice versa. To understand the strategy working try out Orpheus Research Alpha Products.