Archive for the ‘American Pairs and Assets’ category

The priceless Mastercard?

 

These are the top ranked early economic (financial IT) sector stocks in USA.

And this is MASTERCARD which has a topping Jiseki asking us three things.

1) If the current crisis has cost a few trillion dollars.
2) And the monetary stimulus is a few billion dollars every quarter.
3) Then how can the Mastercard be priceless?

 

We think Mastercard is set to underperform, as quarterly Jiseki tops.





To read more of Jiseki Cycle updates mail us today.

 

Dr. Ionut Nistor is the co-author of Performance Cycles paper published in Kyoto Economics Journal. Ionut has been part of the core team that developed and nurtured the idea of Alpha products since July 2008. Ionut is also a professor of Corporate Finance. Currently he is pursuing his post doctorate studies at Kobe University in Japan. He is fluent in Japanese, Romanian and English.

The Bric Model from a Japanese Perspective
Ionut Nistor - Econohistory

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 100. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.


Why is AUTOZONE a top short idea?

…because AZO is a top ranked JISEKI across time frames. Sub 332 this remains short and negative NYSE component that should become the next NETFLIX.

 

AutoZone, Inc. (AutoZone) is a retailer and a distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. As of August 28, 2010, the Company operated 4,389 stores in the United States and Puerto Rico, and 238 in Mexico. Each of its stores carries a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. As of August 28, 2010, in 2,424 of its domestic stores and 173 of its Mexico stores, AutoZone also has a commercial sales program that provides delivery of parts and other products to local, regional and national repair garages, dealers, service stations and public sector accounts. AutoZone also sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software through www.alldata.com. Additionally, it sells automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products through www.autozone.com.

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies


Is Blackberry dead?

 

Well when it’s dead everybody would know it and newspapers would write about it. Corporate death, or near death (bankruptcy) is news after all. We humans celebrate everything, growth and decay.

But what is important information knowing when something has fallen to a seven year low or anticipation of the event.

Well Jiseki saw the currently Blackberry seven year lows coming as early as 2008. How was that? Because decay starts at the top not when you reach the bottom. At the bottom you just see the decay. Blackberry was the top percentile Jiseki performer and it was set to underperform. And underperform it did. The Jiseki cycles remain negative and we have no reversal here. When Blackberry resurrects (Jiseki multi week turns up) we will let you know, meanwhile you can ponder about the power of seasonality (TIME).

So should I SELL it?

The prices are oversold and if you look on the arithmetic scale there is nothing left to SELL. But on a log scale (above) prices have broken primary multi year support at 21. These are not good signs.  Above this intermediate multi week Jiseki cycle is still bottoming and has not reversed yet (below).  Sub 21 I won’t hold this stock.

 RIM falls to 7 year low

GOOGLE FINANCE: RIM.TO

Research In Motion Limited (RIM) is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service (SMS), Internet and intranet-based applications and browsing. RIM’s portfolio includes the BlackBerry wireless solution, the RIM Wireless Handheld product line, software development tools and other software and hardware. On June 2, 2010, Harman International sold its software operating systems unit, QNX Software Systems, to the Company. On March 25, 2011, RIM purchased 100% of the shares of a company whose technology is being incorporated into the Company’s developer tools. On April 26, 2011, the Company purchased certain assets of a company whose acquired technologies will be incorporated into the Company’s products. In June 2011, the Company acquired Scoreloop.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products

Coverage Global: S&P500, Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities


IS SNDK (SanDisk) going up or down?

 

Above 46-45 the stock has a chance to push up till 60. A few reasons. 1) Multi year Jiseki is still positive. 2) The multi year Jiseki rankings are still at 60, which does not make it an extreme outlier on multi year time frame. 3) The real multi year supply pressure is at 60 not at current highs near 50.

SanDisk Corporation (SanDisk) is engaged in designing, developing and manufacturing data storage solutions in a range of form factors using the flash memory, controller and firmware technologies. The Company operates through flash memory storage products segment. Most of its products are manufactured by combining NAND flash memory with a controller chip. The Company’s solutions include removable cards, embedded products, universal serial bus (USB) drives, digital media players, wafers and components. The removable card products are used in a range of consumer electronics devices, such as mobile phones, digital cameras, gaming devices and laptop computers. Its embedded flash products are used in mobile phones, tablets, eReaders, global positioning system, (GPS), devices, gaming systems, imaging devices and computing platforms. In May 2011, it acquired Pliant Technology, Inc., pursuant to which Pliant Technology became SanDisk’s Enterprise Storage Solutions business.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products

Coverage Global: S&P500, Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities


What happened to NETFLIX?

Multi Year Jiseki

Now as expected we have so many reasons why NETFLIX sharked up. Reason a, reason b, reason c.

For a change can be think that NETFLIX fell because it was an outlier. And outliers are prone to reversion. When we say outlier, we are talking not only of superior performance but also of top performance in a group.

Like Lincoln said, you can fool some people some of the time, some people most of the time but not all the people all the time. The same is true about performance. An asset can outperform a group of assets for some time, for most of the time, but not all the time. This is what was happening in case of NETFLIX, it had reached a state when it was the best of the group and this could not continue for all the time.

So another reason that could have been added to the list of reasons is that NETFLIX was an outlier prone to overconfidence and hype. It had reached a plane where it had become a star. And when you become a star, you are prone to outlier extreme reversion.

The reversion worked and the stock fell 67% off the charts. This again illustrates how all the market components do not move up and fall together. Markets can be sleeping or stagnant while outliers like NETFLIX can make the real moves.

This is the power of Jiseki Rankings. It indentifies the best of the best to short and the worst of the worst to buy.


Mukul Pal 
Mukul Pal, Co-Founder, Orpheus Capitals is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance. He is a member of the Market Technicians association. He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting Orpheus in 2005.


Alpha.Dow 30 - Exxon worst, Boeing best starts to deliver

This is what we said on 1 Feb

“Boeing is at the top while Exxon is at the bottom. Boeing was also the fastest change in positive ranking. The stock is up 8% from start of the year. Exxon on the other side is down 7% from the start of the year. The pair delivered 15% from start of the year (39% since 26 Oct) , as both short and long legs were profitable. Now that the pair components are at two extremes (BA at top and XOM at bottom), we should be get ready for a reversal in performance in February. We will keep you posted on the signal.”

Since 1 Feb, Short Boeing - Long Exxon is up 6%. The latest alpha Dow 30 carries Numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance and pair cycles, pair trackers and long only short signals.

Numeric Ranking

Strategy Update


Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : Alcoa, Disney, Kraft, P&G, American Express, GE, Coca Cola, AT&T, Boeing, Home Depot, Macdonald’s, MMM, HP, Bank of America, Travelers, United Tech, Caterpillar, IBM, Merck, Verizon, Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, Chevron, J&J, Pfizer, Exxon, Dupont, JPM, Walmart

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


Alpha.global - dollar Index remains a buy, gold remains a sell

The latest Alpha Global carries pair updates (running and  anticipated reversal signals), numeric ranking for DOW 30 stocks, performance  cycles, alpha trackers (week over week and year to date) and long only - short only portfolio signals.

Pair signals update

1: Long Macdonald’s, Short Coca Cola, Reaching Reversal, 13% (121 days)
2: Long Kraft, Short Coca Cola, Reaching Reversal, 15% (59 days)
3: Long J&J, Short Pfizer, Continuing, 2.4% (64 days)
4: Long Microsoft, Short Intel, continuing, 5.4% (63 days)
5: Long Boeing, Short Exxon, Reaching Reversal, 11% (28 days)
6: Long Home Depot, Short Disney, Continuing, 4% (59 days)
7: Long Exxon, Short Chevron, Continuing, 3% (39days)
8: Long Boeing, Short Chevron, Reaching Reversal, 14% (45 days)

Strategy update

The Alpha Tracker

Long only, Short only portfolio

Performance Cycles

Numeric Ranking

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : Alcoa, Disney, Kraft, P&G, American Express, GE, Coca Cola, AT&T, Boeing, Home Depot, Macdonald’s, MMM, HP, Bank of America, Travelers, United Tech, Caterpillar, IBM, Merck, Verizon, Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, Chevron, J&J, Pfizer, Exxon, Dupont, JPM, Walmart

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


Alpha. DOW30 - Boeing is topping

Boeing is at the top while Exxon is at the bottom. Boeing was also the fastest change in positive ranking. The stock is up 8% from start of the year. Exxon on the other side is down 7% from the start of the year. The pair delivered 15% from start of the year, as both short and long legs were profitable. Now that the pair components are at two extremes (BA at top and XOM at bottom), we should be get ready for a reversal in performance in February. We will keep you posted on the signal.

In terms of change of rankings Microsoft witnessed the fastest negative change. The stock is down 9% from start of the year. MSFT also delivered positive returns against Intel. Long MSFT- Short Intel was up 6% since30 Nov. Long Kraft,  Short Coca Cola is stagnating at 10% since 9 Dec. The pairs we expect to deliver in the coming weeks are long HP - Short Microsoft; Long JPM - Short Amex; Long Exxon - Short Chevron; Long Intel - Short Microsoft.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : Alcoa, Disney, Kraft, P&G, American Express, GE, Coca Cola, AT&T, Boeing, Home Depot, Macdonald’s, MMM, HP, Bank of America, Travelers, United Tech, Caterpillar, IBM, Merck, Verizon, Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, Chevron, J&J, Pfizer, Exxon, Dupont, JPM, Walmart

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


Alpha.Dow30 - American Express tops performance

We talked about Amex as early as 9 Sep. Amex has ended the year with top gains and was recently featured in the Economist. Now that the stock performance is conspicuous, it’s likely that Amex outperformance has topped. This is what the Numeric Rankings suggest. Amex is the top ranked performer and hence should underperform in the coming weeks ahead. The latest Alpha.Dow30 carries numeric ranking and performance cycles for the Dow components.

The following stocks should continue to outperform in the coming weeks viz. Exxon, Wal-Mart, Intel, Cisco, Travelers, Bank of America, Home Depot, Boeing, AT&T, Kraft. The potential underperformers for the weeks ahead are Microsoft, Pfizer, DuPont, JPM, Chevron, United Tech, Caterpillar, Merck, Macdonald’s, GE, Disney, American Express.

The report also illustrates the performance on four pairs viz.  Coca Cola - Macdonald’s; Kraft - Coca Cola; AT&T - Verizon and Pfizer - J&J. Long Kraft - Short Coca Cola generated 10% over 49 days. The pairs we expect to deliver in the coming weeks are Long Boeing - Short United Tech; Long HP - Short Microsoft; Long JPM - Short Amex; Long Exxon - Short Chevron; Long Intel - Short Microsoft.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Assets Covered : Alcoa, Disney, Kraft, P&G, American Express, GE, Coca Cola, AT&T, Boeing, Home Depot, Macdonald’s, MMM, HP, Bank of America, Travelers, United Tech, Caterpillar, IBM, Merck, Verizon, Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, Chevron, J&J, Pfizer, Exxon, Dupont, JPM, Walmart

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


Alpha.US.Indices – S&P 500 set to outperform Dow 30

There is nothing that validates performance cycles more than trying it on highly correlated assets. We have done it on prior occasions illustrating the S&P 500 and Dow pair, a tight pair. Since 15 July 2009 S&P 500 has underperformed the Dow 30 delivering 5% on an absolute basis and 10% on an annualized basis. This might be low returns, but for the levels of risk this is one workable strategy. Now we are heading into a reversal soon with Long S&P 500 – Short Dow strategy. The latest Alpha.US gives some cues regarding what to expect from the market direction. Energy, transports, financials and the broad market are potential outperformers for the quarter ahead. When a broad market (S&P 500) is a potential outperformer one could rule out any immediate negativity on Dow. Second; according to the Sam Stovall, Global strategist Standard and Poor, sector rotation model, financials, energy and transportation potential outperformance places us in late economic or early economic market cycle stage. This does not look off mark, if we assume that the economy started growing or the economic cycle started in Mar 2009.

The latest Alpha.US carries sector performance cycles for Dow sector Indices. We have illustrated numeric ranking for the respective sectors. Technology is the best sell being at the top of the performance ranking and financials at the bottom are valuable. The idea of performance cycles is very simple. A top outperformer can not remain at the top despite all wishful thinking and a top underperformer can’t remain in the rut even with all the odds piled against it. Hence the perfect time to get into an asset is when it is reeling at the bottom of the rankings and best time to get out of an asset is when its the best and at the top.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: DOW Sector Indices  (Energy, Utilities,  Transports, Financials, Consumer Goods, Conumer Services, Technology, Telecom) and S&P500.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA