Archive for the ‘Global Equity’ category

Why is CISCO a buy?

CISCO is all over the news, as it is firing 5000 people. A look at CISCO suggests that Jiseki Cycles are positive. And turning back up from worst rankings among a group of 1000 global assets, this is one interesting accumulation story.

 

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

*Jiseki Cycles is another name for Performance cycles. Jiseki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range of 1% to 100%. 100% is a top relative performer and 1% is the worst performer. Since performance is cyclical, the top performer should underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki cycles vary with different time periods (e.g. 1 month red, 3 months blue, 6 months grey). All the Jiseki cycles are mapped to the left hand scale and the asset price (or relative performance) is mapped to the right hand scale.


The Dollar Collapse?

Now that EURUSD has broken a primary true trendline and heads to next resistance at 1.5, the dollar collapse is in the news. From a sentiment point of view the fall in dollar is nearly 12 month old and EUR has strengthened 25% against dollar during this period. This is a good time for sentiment to get bearish on dollar. If we go back in Jun 2010, it was EUR collapse that was in the news. And street talk was about EUR Dollar Parity. Sentiment rolls over with time. Now 1.5 is a key resistance for EURUSD and respective levels should also mark a sentiment extreme against Dollar. Above this the EURUSD price structure from Jun 2010 low does not seem to be a five wave trended structure. It looks more like a 3 wave corrective counter trend.

From a cycle point of view the weekly UUP Dollar ETF Jiseki cycles (red, blue, grey) are bottoming and suggesting that Dollar is more likely to bottom against global currencies than otherwise. Whether it take a few weeks or another quarter more is hard to say now. But when the dollar will reverse, the move should be secular and a larger one than what we have seen on 12 month EUR strengthening. Dollar could strengthen for a few years. What it means for European Union and what it means for the world at large, is something sentiment can not understand or visualize now. Sentiment like everything follows time. When the cycle is up, sentiment is up and vice versa. After 1.5 EURUSD we review.

In this latest Alpha Global we have carried Short Commodity ETF DDP daily and weekly Jiseki cycles. On the daily cycles DDP shows signs of bottoming while on an Intermediate time frame the commodity secular trend remains down. This means that even of commodity on an aggregate basis might fall, the larger multi year trend on commodities is still up. Copper, Sugar, Silver, Cotton are the top ranked over a quarter and hence most likely to continue underperformance. While Wind, livestock, Wheat, Cocoa are the worst commodities, which are likely to outperform. US Equity worst rankers (which are best potential holds and outperformers) are EXC, ERS, RTN, WPO. On Forex rankings US Dollar is the worst and Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc are the top rankers suggesting some underperformance on Australian dollar and Swiss Franc. The report also carries an Alpha Global hedge Portfolio.

 

Bibliography - Index

1: The Divergence Cycles0

2: The BRIC Model from a Japanese Perspective - Pre and Post Financial Crisis Review and Forecasts1

3: Time Fractals2

4: Temporal Changes in Shiller’s Exuberance Data3

5: Time Duration Decay in Romanian Capital Markets4

6: MTA Knowledge base – Performance Cycles5

7: Mean Reversion Cycles6

For regular updates on performance Cycles on Toronto Stock Exchange assets write to us today for a free trial for Orpheus Time Analytics.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

 


DAX nears key 7,200

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.


Top 50 Global Jiseki Rankings

Natural Gas is still the worst and Silver, Coffee, Sugar, Copper are the best. The surprise is EUR USD which is one of the worst performing pairs. The pair has not bottomed yet, but this case is not very encouraging for our iii of 3 on dollar. We will keep you posted.

Enjoy the latest Jiseki integrated rankings. We have integrated multiple degree of Time to create Jiseki Rankings.

Rieki and Jiseki are Japanese words for performance and performance cycles. Since we are speaking of multiple degrees of time, we use Rieki for performance cycle on one degree of Time and Jiseki for an integrated performance cycle for multiple degree of Time. Performance cycles are created from relative performance ranking. The above chart is the integrated ranking for Indian Health care sector. Cadila, Dr Redy’s and Sun are the top rankers. While Divi’s, Piramal and Cipla are the worst rankers. Orpheus performance cycles invest in the worst and sell the best. This is why the top short opportunities for Indian Health Care are respective top rankers and vice versa. To understand the strategy working try out Orpheus Research Alpha Products.


Intel, Dupont, Caterpillar Rieki

Intel Rieki is bottoming while Caterpillar and Dupont are topping. Intel should outperform both Caterpillar and Dupont.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Global.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Time Analytics research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

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