Archive for the ‘Global Pairs’ category

YEN 75 to 150?


This is what we said on 17 Jan 2007

“The USD/YEN ratio line broke the 22 year trend suggesting YEN is ready to move out of inaction and head to potentially below 80 (33% strengthening) for many years. However, before it does that we might see some final bit of dollar surprise strengthening. Technically many factors still favor dollar strengthening in the short term, whether this takes an intermediate strengthening remains to be seen. But if we add the gung ho factor, dollar might just wake up against it.”

What now? Jiseki multi year cycles are topping on (FXY YEN ETF) coming from 60 percentile. The cycles have not reversed yet, but signs of stagnation and topping are there. Even multi week intermediate Jiseki is negative. The current price structure is negative. Below 78, we continue to look at another marginal low till 75 after which the move up first to 94 (up 25%) and then up till 150, this is a 100% move from 75.

What this means for Japan? What these means for the world? What this means for Gold are intermarket thoughts? For us at Orpheus multi year Jiseki is ready to turn after 5 years and with a decade long momentum non confirmation to boot, this could be a better deal than GOLD. A non confirmation of such degree is not going to give small reversals.

The latest Alpha carries a detailed technical case of the YEN, multi year outlook, levels and projections, our historical anticipated and happened case on YEN and some beautiful YEN market fractals.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Forex

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies


Where is the British pound headed?

Again, it’s the holding time that is important. Are you holding it for a few weeks or a few months?

This is an end of the day report which offers a investment perspective for ETF and/or Spot investors. FXB Currency shares is the British pound ETF that investors can buy or sell. This is not an intra day trading report.

Our multi week outlook is negative on FXB. Sub 1.6 we continue to look lower first till 1.52. At this point we are not looking lower below 1.52 because unlike multi week short term Jiseki which is negative (SLIDE2), the larger primary multi month Jiseki has bottomed and is positive (SLIDE 4). Multi month Jiseki is slow and hence is less sensitive. This current outlook is challenged if GBPUSD breaks above 1.6. We review above 1.6 and below 1.52. GBPUSD Current price is 1.5793. Even technical momentum remains negative.

The latest Alpha carries a detailed technical case of the GBPUSD, and a multi year outlook, levels and projections.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Forex

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times.


Forex Jiseki Cycles

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. The current Forex complex comparison puts Australian and Canadian Dollar ETF’s at the top, while US dollar ETF at the bottom. This continues to suggest that our intermediate multi week commodity weakness case remains relevant. We are not ruling out a primary multi month negativity on commodities, which includes metals and Energy assets. The latest report carries the Jiseki cycles for the forex currencies with projections.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage Global: Commodities, Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Indices

 


Dollar Jiseki Turns Up

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.


The Dollar Collapse?

Now that EURUSD has broken a primary true trendline and heads to next resistance at 1.5, the dollar collapse is in the news. From a sentiment point of view the fall in dollar is nearly 12 month old and EUR has strengthened 25% against dollar during this period. This is a good time for sentiment to get bearish on dollar. If we go back in Jun 2010, it was EUR collapse that was in the news. And street talk was about EUR Dollar Parity. Sentiment rolls over with time. Now 1.5 is a key resistance for EURUSD and respective levels should also mark a sentiment extreme against Dollar. Above this the EURUSD price structure from Jun 2010 low does not seem to be a five wave trended structure. It looks more like a 3 wave corrective counter trend.

From a cycle point of view the weekly UUP Dollar ETF Jiseki cycles (red, blue, grey) are bottoming and suggesting that Dollar is more likely to bottom against global currencies than otherwise. Whether it take a few weeks or another quarter more is hard to say now. But when the dollar will reverse, the move should be secular and a larger one than what we have seen on 12 month EUR strengthening. Dollar could strengthen for a few years. What it means for European Union and what it means for the world at large, is something sentiment can not understand or visualize now. Sentiment like everything follows time. When the cycle is up, sentiment is up and vice versa. After 1.5 EURUSD we review.

In this latest Alpha Global we have carried Short Commodity ETF DDP daily and weekly Jiseki cycles. On the daily cycles DDP shows signs of bottoming while on an Intermediate time frame the commodity secular trend remains down. This means that even of commodity on an aggregate basis might fall, the larger multi year trend on commodities is still up. Copper, Sugar, Silver, Cotton are the top ranked over a quarter and hence most likely to continue underperformance. While Wind, livestock, Wheat, Cocoa are the worst commodities, which are likely to outperform. US Equity worst rankers (which are best potential holds and outperformers) are EXC, ERS, RTN, WPO. On Forex rankings US Dollar is the worst and Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc are the top rankers suggesting some underperformance on Australian dollar and Swiss Franc. The report also carries an Alpha Global hedge Portfolio.

 

Bibliography - Index

1: The Divergence Cycles0

2: The BRIC Model from a Japanese Perspective - Pre and Post Financial Crisis Review and Forecasts1

3: Time Fractals2

4: Temporal Changes in Shiller’s Exuberance Data3

5: Time Duration Decay in Romanian Capital Markets4

6: MTA Knowledge base – Performance Cycles5

7: Mean Reversion Cycles6

For regular updates on performance Cycles on Toronto Stock Exchange assets write to us today for a free trial for Orpheus Time Analytics.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

 


EURUSD above 1.377 get ready for 1.44

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.


Alpha Forex - Jiseki structures

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.


Introducing JISEKI Minor

This week we are introducing JISEKI minor rankings. These rankings will suggest top performers and underperformers for a minor (for a few trading days). The idea of performance cycle suggests that top outperformers should underperform and vice versa irrespective of any holding period. Looking at two degrees of time frame can assist in forming short term trading outlook on various currency pairs.

The latest Alpha forex juxtaposes both minor and intermediate rankings.  Because the holding period is different there is a high chance that top performers on minor (few trading days) might be different from the ones on a larger intermediate (multi week time frames). In case markets are ready for inflexion there is a high chance that both minor and intermediate Jiseki might also coincide.

Though Minor Jiseki has all of CAD, GBP and EUR at highs, GBPUSD is a top performer on both minor and intermediate. This suggests that GBPUSD is the most likely to potentially underperform ahead. While Pro Share Dollar Bullish fund is the worst performer and hence the best potential outperformer for both a few trading days and multi weeks ahead. We have also carried the Elliott, technical updates and Rieki performance cycles to confirm our view.

Enjoy the latest report

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Time Analytics research products.

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti covers Forex in her weekly columns.


Copper vs. Dollar

In this latest report of Alpha Global we have looked at a combination of commodities with forex pairs. The charts below illustrate the Rieki performance cycle of Comex Spot Copper (.BRHG) and PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). The Dollar Index Bullish Fund Rieki has not reversed yet and is still bottoming while Copper Spot is rising and has reached the top 100 performance among our global coverage. Neither Copper or Dollar have shown any indication of reversal. However, if we extend the metals case to silver and gold, we observe that performance Rieki has already reversed. A similar exhaustion case is visible from Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar. We need further price confirmation on dollar and the commodity complex to look for a primary reversal. But the intermediate reversal seem to be in. We have illustrated Crude, EURUSD Elliott counts and key levels.

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.


Alpha Global - Dollar Corrective Continues

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.