Archive for the ‘Bonds’ category

Alpha Global - The Pair Grid

A technician always has a challenge of coverage. We are trained for speed to spot opportunities. One can look at BSE 30 components, but looking through BSE500 or say RUSSELL 3000 chart by chart is a tough task. The information is growing exponentially like everything else and systems are needed to know where to look.

Orpheus Performance cycles are a novel way to manage a large universe of coverage that works on the idea of mathematical time and cyclical performance. The worst performers should outperform and best performers should underperform.

Today we have matched the best with the worst in the pair grid. The horizontal menu is the top performers and the vertical components are the worst assets. Alpha Global covers 120 assets. This includes commodities, currencies, DOW 30 components, Global Equity Indices and sector representations.

This feature is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts

Enjoy the latest Alpha Global.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Time Analytics research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities


Long zinc, short coffee delivers 9% (7 days)

Despite starting counterparty odds, long zinc -  short coffee was up 9% and long AIGI (industrial metals) - short gold was up 14%. This week we are doing another pair rollover. We are closing the short heating oil leg and plugging the long AIGE (Energy Index) leg with Natural Gas. The Natgas Rieki is turning against dollar and also against Brent and AIGE. Our global asset rankings are benchmarked to dollar, so as natural gas moves up to top three, we don’t want to hold it as a naked asset anymore.

Alpha Pair Tracker


The other running pairs like short carbon emissions ETF and Crude, Short Carbon Emission and AIGI (industrial metals) delivered 1.6% and 8% since 15 July respectively. Long Euro – Short dollar is up 16% and still running. GBP USD and JPY gave first signals of exhaustion against dollar.

During an internal brainstorming session, the question which emerged was “Why should be just look at extreme divergence to short the best and long the worst?” and “Why can’t we say keeps the low divergence pair running, say between wheat and grains (No. 4 and 10)?”

The whole idea of playing extreme divergence is about accepting that one can try understanding that assets have diverged more than normal and the path of least resistance is to low or neutral divergence when for example coffee and zinc reduce the gap from worst and best to somewhere mid way. Working with low divergence pairs or non extreme pairs is like guessing how a backwardation will resolve, very tough.

On a final note, our top ranking coffee was number 2 this week. Sugar assumed the top ranking spot. What a better time to talk about sugar but now. Sugar was in the news and the majority is made to believe that there is no asset better than sugar today. For us at Orpheus, Sugar should not only underperform dollar, but also more than a few global assets over the next few weeks. The latest Alpha carries the pair tracker with updated signals and global asset rankings.

Numeric Ranking

Strategy Update

Sector Cycles

Performance Cycles I

Performance Cycles II

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Forex (EUR USD, AUD USD, GBP USD, CAD USD, JPY USD, CHF USD, Yuan Rnmbi, Indian rupee, NZD USD), Energy (Crude, Natural Gas, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Carbon Emissions, Brent, WTM, Energy Index), Metals (Precious Metals, Tin, Zinc, Nickel, Copper, Platinum, Silver, Industrial Metals Index, Gold), Agro (Coffee, Corn, Grains, Livestock, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton), Thematic and Global Equity (Coal Mining Fund, Shipping Fund, Dow Industrials, Sense, Agricultural Equity, Water, Nuclear, Russell 2000, Russell 1000 USD), Bonds (US 30, US 5Y,  US 10Y, US 2Y, INR Bond Index, China Bond Index, Australian Bond Fund, Global Bond Index, Sweden Bond Index).

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


The Hunt brothers – II

The historical case of silver Thursday suggests cornering of assets is a cyclical event with probable consequences.

Cornering markets may have come off age, but even today traders dare to take large bets. How safe is it? What do historical cases suggest? Are there any signatures linked with such trades? What does numeric ranking of global portfolio suggest? Time does not differentiate between assets. If coffee is the best in a quarter compared to 54 global assets and Zinc is the worst, it’s easy to make a cross asset case, where we go long Zinc and short Coffee. We initiate the pair today.

To read more about…

Anthony Ward’s 658 million pound cocoa trade and how softs are under extreme buy pressure?
How Hunt brothers cornered the silver market?
How cornering is more about tops than bottoms?
Why there are few attempts to corner gold?
What’s the update on our gold undeperformance case?
What about crude and brent performance cycles?

Read the complete article at Alrroya

..download the latest Alpha Global report from the links below.

The latest Alpha Global carries pair tracker signals, numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles. For more information on Alpha Global mail us at [email protected]

Performance Cycles - Aggregate Assets

Numeric Ranking Sectors

Performance Cycles - I


Performance Cycles II


ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Forex (EUR USD, AUD USD, GBP USD, CAD USD, JPY USD, CHF USD, Yuan Rnmbi, Indian rupee, NZD USD), Energy (Crude, Natural Gas, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Carbon Emissions, Brent, WTM, Energy Index), Metals (Precious Metals, Tin, Zinc, Nickel, Copper, Platinum, Silver, Industrial Metals Index, Gold), Agro (Coffee, Corn, Grains, Livestock, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton), Thematic and Global Equity (Coal Mining Fund, Shipping Fund, Dow Industrials, Sense, Agricultural Equity, Water, Nuclear, Russell 2000, Russell 1000 USD), Bonds (US 30, US 5Y,  US 10Y, US 2Y, INR Bond Index, China Bond Index, Australian Bond Fund, Global Bond Index, Sweden Bond Index).

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


US 30 Year bonds top

According to relative numeric rankings,  US 30 YR bonds are the top ranked bonds and hence topping and ready to underperform. Elliott structure suggest that respective prices are completing a 2 primary top, that should be followed by a 3 wave, multi month down structure.

Falling 30 year bond prices are about rising 30 year long term interest. Rising 30 year interest rates may not have an immediate effect on the markets. But if this is a signal for shorter term interest rates to rise, we are looking at a large bond price reversal and a multi month shorting opportunity.

To be sure, we looked for more confirmation with US 2 YR, 10 YR, 5 YR and German bonds. The structure remains topping for majority of US bonds. Barring Australian Bonds, which are still positive, exhaustions mark the landscape. Even Indian and Chinese Bond Indices point lower.

Inverted yield curves when short term rates are higher than long term rates generally indicate a market top. This happened at the 2007 top. The yield curve remains normal as shorter term (1month, 3 months, 1 year) rates are still lower compared to 30 year bond rates.

Enjoy the latest Waves Bonds.


Orpheus Global Research

WAVES.BONDS is a perspective product published once a month. The report covers American, European and emerging market bond markets. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Reuters Coverage 2YT Note , 30Y T Bond, 10YTNote, Euro Schatz, Euro Bund, Euro Bobl

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

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The cross asset myth

Trading Long Zinc, Short Coffee or say Long Industrial Metals index and Short Carbon Emissions index could evoke a shock among the pair trading community, leave aside the simple investor. How can you mix coffee with zinc? “These are pairs, they are not for me, I am a single stock (asset) absolute performance go getter”. Wrong Answer. A simple Dow trade is an investment in the Long Dow - Short Dollar pair as Dow is denominated in dollar. It’s different that you ignore the dollar leg and just look at the Dow leg. But the real returns on your single asset trade have to be netted for dollar performance.

From July 2008 we have been tracking assets against their respective benchmarks in form of pairs. We benchmarked metals against precious metals index, various currencies against dollar, agro assets against a composite agricultural index, and energy assets vs. energy index. We illustrated numeric rankings selling the best and buying the worst, it worked.

We started running a portfolio of agro pairs, forex pairs, metal pairs, energy pairs, and bond pairs all the time realizing that we were actually trading a cross asset portfolio where metals were pegged against agro, agro against energy. It was a mix match of different assets. If we had two running pairs long AIGI (Industrial Metals) vs. short Nickel in one trade and long AIGE (Energy Index) and short heating oil (heat) on the other, we were actually playing Nickel against Energy Index.

Today we integrate our Alpha Global portfolio with the following 55 assets. Forex (EUR USD, AUD USD, GBP USD, CAD USD, JPY USD, CHF USD, Yuan Rnmbi, Indian rupee, NZD USD), Energy (Crude, Natural Gas, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Carbon Emissions, Brent, WTM, Energy Index), Metals (Precious Metals, Tin, Zinc, Nickel, Copper, Platinum, Silver, Industrial Metals Index, Gold), Agro (Coffee, Corn, Grains, Livestock, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton), Thematic and Global Equity (Coal Mining Fund, Shipping Fund, Dow Industrials, Sense, Agricultural Equity, Water, Nuclear, Russell 2000, Russell 1000 USD), Bonds (US 30, US 5Y,  US 10Y, US 2Y, INR Bond Index, China Bond Index, Australian Bond Fund, Global Bond Index, Sweden Bond Index).

Now you will see us doing seemingly exotic strategies where we unwind AIGI-Nickel pair at a profit by just closing the Nickel leg and shifting AIGI exposure against short Carbon. It just sounds strange. Markets and assets are connected in time through performance. Time does not differentiate between zinc and coffee. It’s the same inefficient divergent pairs that can be profited from. Lack of cross asset pair tradability is a myth. Get ready for long zinc, short coffee pair. We are expecting a signal on the pair soon.

To read the latest Alpha Global report download it from the links below.

The latest Alpha Global carries pair tracker signals, numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles.

For more information on Alpha Global mail us at [email protected]

Numeric Ranking Assets

Performance Cycles - Aggregate Assets

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles - I

Performance Cycles II

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Agro, Forex, Metals, Energy

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Long US 30 yrs, short German 30 yrs

On 9 Feb we said “The running pairs are long German 30 yrs - short German 10 yrs (Bund); long German 30 yrs – short German 5 yrs (Bobl). The pairs about to close are long German 30 – short US 10 yrs (up 6.83% in 102 days i.e. 25% annualized) and long German 30 yrs – short German 2 yrs (Schatz) (up 4.2% in 32 days).”

This is what happened; Long German 30 years, short German 10 years (Bund) closed on 25 Feb with a gain of 13% and has been flat since then. Long German 30 yrs, short US 10 years closed on 26 Feb registering 13.5% since 26 Oct 2009. The running pairs are long German 30 yrs - short German 5 yrs (Bobl), up 10% since 5 Jan 2010. Long German 30 years, short German 2 yrs (Schatz) is also running, up 12% since 5 Jan 2010.

After delivering 20% since 5 Jan, the long German De 30, short US 30 pair has reversed. We initiated a short German 30 yrs and long US 30 yrs performance pair on 6 Apr 2010. The latest alpha bonds carry numeric rankings updates, change in numeric rankings, pair trackers and performance cycles. For more information on Alpha Bonds mail us at [email protected]

Pair Tracker

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

BONDS: GERMAN BONDS, AMERICAN BONDS, JAPANESE BONDS (2, 5, 10, 30 YEAR)

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


Alpha.Bonds – Arbitraging Romanian Yields

Geographical biases are so strong that either investors are too optimistic about them or too pessimistic. Take the example of Romanian equity. Market participants were so negative about the markets that equity delivered handsome returns in 2009. We can’t change mindsets, what we can do is illustrate workability when it is assumed that none exists. In this issue of ALPHA.BONDS we have introduced Romanian 6M, 1Y, 3Y, 10Y series along with the regular German and American prices. Guess what? You can not only rank Romanian Bonds along with other bond prices from other global regions, you can also arbitrage between Romanian bonds, say Long RO 10Y, Short RO 1Y or vice versa. The last trade between RO1Y and RO10Y delivered 15%. The latest alpha bonds carry numeric rankings updates, change in numeric rankings and performance cycles.

Numeric Ranking

Strategy Update

Performance Cycles

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

BONDS: GERMAN BONDS, AMERICAN BONDS, JAPANESE BONDS (2, 5, 10, 30 YEAR)

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


Alpha.bonds – long German 30 yrs, short US 10 yrs deliver 25% annualized

The running pairs are long German 30 yrs -  short German 10 yrs (Bund);  long German 30 yrs  - short German 5 yrs (Bobl). The pairs about to close are long German 30 - short US 10 yrs (up 6.83% in 102 days i.e. 25% annualized) and long German 30 yrs - short German 2 yrs (Schatz) (up 4.2% in 32 days). The latest alpha bonds carry numeric rankings updates, change in numeric rankings and performance cycles.

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

BONDS: GERMAN BONDS, AMERICAN BONDS, JAPANESE BONDS (2, 5, 10, 30 YEAR)

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


Waves.bonds - Bobl futures final wave up


Orpheus Global Research

WAVES.BONDS is a perspective product published once a month. The report covers American, European and emerging market bond markets. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Reuters Coverage 2YT Note , 30Y T Bond, 10YTNote, Euro Schatz, Euro Bund, Euro Bobl

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

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Alpha.Bonds – Schatz vs. Bobl

The latest Alpha Bond carries Numeric Rankings from 8 Nov 2009, 13 Jan 2010 and the change in rankings. The idea is to illustrate that Numeric Rankings are not static as they are based on performance. When relative performance changes, Numeric Ranking also changes. Over the last few weeks the biggest change in Rankings is in US 2 Yr, German DE 2 Yr (Schatz), Japanese 5 Yr and German 5 Yr (BOBL). Could this swing in rankings be profited from? What kind of perspectives do these changes of rankings suggest? What is the forecast ahead? And did we make money on the strategy we gave on 8 Nov 2009 when we said JP 5 Yr should outperform US 3o Yr and German Schatz (2 Yr) should outperform German BOBL (5 Yr)?

The German Schatz vs Bobl has given 4 intermediate signals since Jun 2008. The last trade, long Schatz, short Bobl is running a marginal profit. We expect further upside on the pair. All the other three trades also returned positive returns. Even the JP5 outperformed the US30 yr bond delivering 5% in 77 days.


This week US 10 yr is the worst performer and JP 2 yr is the best. Though we don’t have a signal yet, we are expecting the pair performance cycle to turn in favour of US10 yr. The pair strategy will be long US 10, short JP2.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

BONDS: GERMAN BONDS, AMERICAN BONDS, JAPANESE BONDS (2, 5, 10, 30 YEAR)

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 2%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

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