Archive for the ‘GREEN’ category

What about Solar?

There was a time when renewable energy was buzzword. The crisis took the wind out the renewable assets as the prices fell. Markets tried explaining the causes. But many conventional reasons failed to explain what’s happening in the renewable complex today.

The following are some positive conventional reasons backing up solar. First, they said it was easier to get solar firms in place than wind, because wind mills destroy the scenic beauty of landscape. The sun was more abundant than wind. Second, Alternative energy becomes valuable only when Oil stayed above 100.


The following are the negative conventional reasons challenging solar. Owing to its small scale generation, solar may not be able to play a large role. Climate changes leads to volatility in suntime creating further inconsistencies. Solar subsidies threaten investment in other renewables. Solar is still…

This article was written for ATMA.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


The First Solar Hedge

The 140% annual gain on First Solar, a solar major, pails every other asset price performance. Vestas wind another wind major returned 62% annual gains. And this was not all, there are atleast 10 multi billion dollar alternative energy majors with barely 15-20% drops this year. This clearly highlights the alternative energy out-performance compared to the returns on other conventional energy and available investible assets.

But it was not all positive for the GREEN SECTOR. BIOX the bioenergy Index has collapsed and so has the ISE Global wind energy index. The backlash against ethanol and the connection with food prices are some sighted reasons. We at Orpheus consider the current drawdowns as normal pauses from euphoria linked with alternative energy assets since 2002. Stock performance gets polarized only after the tide turns low. The current pause filters out the best of alternative energy winners, highlighting the overall resilience in the sector and top picks from the green sector. The price formations also illustrate classic fractal structures, which are retesting previous fourth wave supports. This presents multi year primary bottoms creating buy and hold opportunities potentially till 2012.

Water has been in the news with T Boone Pickens featuring as the water king in Business week (Jun 2008). Water hype is panning out well with the performance of the water index. The world water index retraced 30% from historical highs, mostly collapsing after the respective cover page story appeared on WATER. Water outperformed Oil from 2004-2007 and now is underperforming Oil in the intermarket cycle. We have not hit a bottom yet on water. Other intermarket ratio clearly brings out the leading sector validating the solar case. Solar has outperformed Oil since inception of the Solar Index in 200X. SOLAR index has also outperformed wind, bioenergy, and water. And even Intermediate RSI momentum suggests that we are ready for another leg higher before anything. The preferred view looks more like a continuation triangle and not a distribution pattern.

We have also added some specialty chemical companies like Toray and Teijin from Japan in our Green list. Toray holds 34% of the carbon fiber market. The company is helping auto majors and airline manufacturers reduce body weight and be more fuel efficient. Teijin another high tech materials maker aims to cut the weight of the car by half, by using polycarbonate resins. Both stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock exchange are quoting at 1984 dirt cheap levels. We could not have left weather out, which is why green is the next big wave. The product also cover the London Climate Exchange stock. Currently the stock is coiling under a large distribution pattern, undergoing a corrective formation, getting ready for the next up move. The product covers the best of the green world covering a total of eight countries viz. US, UK, Germany, France, Belgium, Denmark, Japan and Brazil

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GREEN


WAVES.GREEN is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index (NEX), S&P Global Clean Energy Index, ISE Global Wind Energy IndexS&P Global Water Index, UBS Diapason Global Biofuel Index, World Bio Energy Index (BIOX), MAC Global Solar Energy Index, EDF Energies Nouvelles, Theolia, Greentech Energy Systems, Vestas Wind Systems, First Solar, Cia Energetica de Minas Gerais, Hansen Transmissions International, Vestas Wind Systems, Gamesa Corp Tecnologica, Veolia Environnement, ITT, Geberit, Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cosan Industria e Comercio, Renewable Energy Corp and Q-Cells. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. The product covers the best of the green world covering a total of eight countries viz. US, UK, Germany, France, Belgium, Denmark, Japan and Brazil. We could not have left weather out, which is why green is the next big wave. The product also covers the London Climate Exchange stock.