Archive for the ‘Indian Pairs and Assets’ category

Long BPCL, Short HPCL review

This is another working of the NEW JISEKI PAIR service. How did we do pairs previously? What has changed? Previously we used to do net rankings, selling the best and buying the worst. Now we are combining three Jiseki cycles together, like we do in individual stocks. The combination of the various Jiseki cycles tell us if the pair ratio line is headed higher or lower. If the ratio line between BPCL and HPCL (blue) is headed higher, it is long BPCL, short HPCL and vice versa. Interpretation can wary, a more risky trade can just involve the interaction of Jiseki 1>or<Jiseki2 or it can involve all the three of them. Example only go long BPCL short HPCL if all the three Jiseki are trended up, as at point C. From C point the pair has delivered 20% over the last 12 months. JISEKI PAIR service can also be used for stock selection, which sector peer to own and which to reduce or close.

To read more about our JISEKI PAIR service subscribe mail us today.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings from 1 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform. 100 is top relative performance and 1 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. Jiseki is another name for Performance cycles, time triads and time fractals. The signals are illustrated as a running portfolio and as Jiseki Indices. These signals can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades.

Jiseki Interpretation. Signals are interpreted as crossovers between various Jiseki Cycles. All three Jiseki cycles (Jiseki 1,2 and 3) depict different time frames. Example: An asset is ranked above 80 percentile and all the three Jiseki cycles are pointing lower, this suggests a running SHORT SIGNAL. Our Jiseki Indices use different kind of exits based on price and Jiseki Cycles. We have color coded the (Jiseki 1>Jiseki 2) SHORT zones with brown sandy (burlywood) and grey (Jiseki 1>Jiseki2) for LONG SIGNALS.

Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


Filtering the Signal

 

We at Orpheus reach a trade signal by filtering from a large universe of assets. These are the two kind of filters we have used to generate short ideas.

Filter One

1) We took the best 24 month performers above 80% percentile ranking. (LIST1)
2) We filtered them for falling Jiseki (LIST 2)
3) Then we ran a price filter. How many of LIST 2 assets were also below 20 day average.

This filter returned just one stock among CNX 100 stocks

Filter two

1)Take the best 24 month performers above 80% percentile ranking. (LIST1)
2)Take the LIST 1 and filter it for quarterly 80% percentile ranking. (LIST2)
3)Filter this for negative Jiseki (LIST 3)
4)Rank (LIST3) from nearest to farthest from Historical Highs. (LIST4)
5)Filter LIST 4 for top ranking sectors.

This filter also returned just one stock among CNX 100 stocks.

To read about the two trade signal ideas download the latest ALPHA India reports from the Orpheus e-store.


Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


The Rupee Connection

Why is Rupee so important for NIFTY investors? Because according to intermarket analysis, currency strengthening should be accompanied by Equity Index strengthening. This means, if RUPEE strengthens Nifty Strengthens and vice versa. Is this a rule? There are no rules in market, just guidelines.

So did it work? This is what we said on 25 Dec 2010. “Markets have enough capability to burn time in stagnation or weakness. The ongoing complex corrective could just persist till H1 2011. What does this tell us about equity? This tells us that Nifty VIX broad basing formation should not be ignored as equity could surprise early 2011. And since we are in larger complex corrective in Indian equity also, performance cycles (relative performance) should be used to reduce out of overstretched sectors and accumulate into best potential outperformers.”

We did a follow up on Rupee on Sep 2011. This is what we said then, “Now if we should project these ratios in time INR could weaken against the USD till Dec 2011 or till Dec 2013 to attain this proportion.”

Now that we have reached Dec 2012, it makes sense to look at INR and extend it’s connection to Indian equity. The current report looks at the NIFTY-INR connection. Is the market in an INR panic?

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


ZIG ZAG OR IMPULSE?

This is what we said on 11 May

“The subminor structure, however, does not look ready for a breakdown yet. Most of the sectors seem to be in an ongoing second wave correction with a pending subminor leg up before the third impulse down begins. Even if this last rise takes up a few more days, we are prepared to put our short ideas into action once the price confirmation is here. BSE Consumer Durables, BSE Auto, CNXIT, NSEBANK and BSE Metals are the best sectors according to the daily Jiseki rankings”

We are still looking at the current market form as three legged A-B-C ZIG ZAG. These are corrective and not impulsive structures. We have no reason to assume at the this stage that these three legged structures could become five impulse legs. Because five wave are trends and three waves are counter trends. (The basic rule of Elliott.) We are still with Benner in terms of 2011 lows (which seems to be spilling into 2012, but not yet) and we also made our corrective case with NIFTY resolution from 4,400-4,000 lows to 8,000 after this leg down. This would be a clock work, if the anticipated happens.

The latest Alpha explains and illustrates price structures of 7 sector indices. Explains about ZIG ZAGS, illustrates where we are headed. The report also carries trendline confluences which are key time windows for reversal. If markets have a tendency to fall fast, Jiseki should also accompany the price performance. So what we said were best performing sectors in May 2011, should easily push below 50% rankings and then it should be a new ball game.

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


Is TCS going up or down?

 

There are more reasons for TCS to go up. 1) It is back to historical highs. 2) It is top among carbon disclosure leadership. 3) It is rumored to interest Buffet. 4) It remains the outperformer.

What could be the reasons for it to come down?

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


When will Punj Lloyd go up?

There are various ways to look at Punj Lloyd. First as a stock that fell 60% in a year. Second as a stock that gave an improved performance falling barely 17% in the last 6 months. This was an outperformance compared to BSE Capital Goods Index, Bharat Forge, BHEL, Exide, Cummins and the rest of it’s peers in the mid economic segment.

What does this mean? This means that the worst performer of 12 months is a relative outperformer when it comes to 6 months holding period. This also means that if we held Punj Lloyd just for the last 6 months, we did a good job with portfolio allocation. At Orpheus we have been consistent with our outperformance outlook for the respective stock.

There are other two ways to look at the stock, which can actually tell us when will Punj Lloyd eventually reverse positive. The latest Alpha looks at Jiseki cycles and explains the case further.

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


What’s wrong with HDFC and HDBK?

This could be a normal question after an asset starts moving sideways for a long time. The technical reason can be that prices are forming a continuation five legged triangle pattern, which should resolve higher. Fundamental reasons can be many. Could this conventional thinking be wrong? Can you be sure that the triangle has a higher probability of breakout and a lower probability of a triangle failure? Is there a way these technical patterns can be filtered for risk? Is there a way the investor could understand the risk profile of his buy, sell, reduce, increase positions?

The rules are simple.

To read the latest Alpha India download it from the store.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


Alpha India - Worst Banks

Our preferred view on the Indian market remains positive as long as NIFTY remains above 5,500-5,400 supports.  This is a time to look at those assets which could outperform over the next few weeks i.e. worst performers.

The chart below illustrates the Jiseki ranking of the Bank NIFTY components. The worst performer banks are IDBI Bank, Oriental Bank and

ICICI Bank. The best performer banks are Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank.

Today’s report also carries technical cases on the two worst performer banks, IDBI and Oriental Bank.

 

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices. Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

 


Is the Indian auto reversal for real?

To understand a primary degree reversal we need a reversal on most of the early economic sector indices. We discussed the CNX-IT last week. This week we are revisiting the auto sector. Agreed there is a hammer reversal bar on auto sector. This is a positive sign. However, the hammer reversal does not come from a key primary support and also the 0.382 Fibonacci supports lie lower near 7,500.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

 


The CNXIT special

Is CNXIT ready to reverse?

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.