Archive for the ‘Metal Pairs’ category

Nickel and Tin ready to rock lower

Now that tin has rocked the boat delivering the maximum returns along with sugar at 45% among 54 global assets just in 56 days, the best performer deserves another look. Among metals just after Tin, the rankings suggest Nickel as the second best performer. The metal delivered 10% in 24 days.

Written for Association of Technical Market Analysts

To read more on India strategy mail us for subscription details to Alpha India.

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Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States

Performance Cycles (Rieki) on nine major forex pairs gives a global perspective.

The idea of performance cycles is built around divergence between the worst and the best. After a certain time the best and worst reverse polarity. The histogram carries a 6 month return comparative between few best and worst Nifty blue chips. SBI, ITC were the best and Suzlon, Jaiprakash and Reliance were the worst. After we ranked the stocks on performance we looked at the Rieki (performance cycles) for the respective stocks.


The Hunt brothers – II

The historical case of silver Thursday suggests cornering of assets is a cyclical event with probable consequences.

Cornering markets may have come off age, but even today traders dare to take large bets. How safe is it? What do historical cases suggest? Are there any signatures linked with such trades? What does numeric ranking of global portfolio suggest? Time does not differentiate between assets. If coffee is the best in a quarter compared to 54 global assets and Zinc is the worst, it’s easy to make a cross asset case, where we go long Zinc and short Coffee. We initiate the pair today.

To read more about…

Anthony Ward’s 658 million pound cocoa trade and how softs are under extreme buy pressure?
How Hunt brothers cornered the silver market?
How cornering is more about tops than bottoms?
Why there are few attempts to corner gold?
What’s the update on our gold undeperformance case?
What about crude and brent performance cycles?

Read the complete article at Alrroya

..download the latest Alpha Global report from the links below.

The latest Alpha Global carries pair tracker signals, numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles. For more information on Alpha Global mail us at [email protected]

Performance Cycles - Aggregate Assets

Numeric Ranking Sectors

Performance Cycles - I


Performance Cycles II


ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Forex (EUR USD, AUD USD, GBP USD, CAD USD, JPY USD, CHF USD, Yuan Rnmbi, Indian rupee, NZD USD), Energy (Crude, Natural Gas, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Carbon Emissions, Brent, WTM, Energy Index), Metals (Precious Metals, Tin, Zinc, Nickel, Copper, Platinum, Silver, Industrial Metals Index, Gold), Agro (Coffee, Corn, Grains, Livestock, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton), Thematic and Global Equity (Coal Mining Fund, Shipping Fund, Dow Industrials, Sense, Agricultural Equity, Water, Nuclear, Russell 2000, Russell 1000 USD), Bonds (US 30, US 5Y,  US 10Y, US 2Y, INR Bond Index, China Bond Index, Australian Bond Fund, Global Bond Index, Sweden Bond Index).

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


The cross asset myth

Trading Long Zinc, Short Coffee or say Long Industrial Metals index and Short Carbon Emissions index could evoke a shock among the pair trading community, leave aside the simple investor. How can you mix coffee with zinc? “These are pairs, they are not for me, I am a single stock (asset) absolute performance go getter”. Wrong Answer. A simple Dow trade is an investment in the Long Dow - Short Dollar pair as Dow is denominated in dollar. It’s different that you ignore the dollar leg and just look at the Dow leg. But the real returns on your single asset trade have to be netted for dollar performance.

From July 2008 we have been tracking assets against their respective benchmarks in form of pairs. We benchmarked metals against precious metals index, various currencies against dollar, agro assets against a composite agricultural index, and energy assets vs. energy index. We illustrated numeric rankings selling the best and buying the worst, it worked.

We started running a portfolio of agro pairs, forex pairs, metal pairs, energy pairs, and bond pairs all the time realizing that we were actually trading a cross asset portfolio where metals were pegged against agro, agro against energy. It was a mix match of different assets. If we had two running pairs long AIGI (Industrial Metals) vs. short Nickel in one trade and long AIGE (Energy Index) and short heating oil (heat) on the other, we were actually playing Nickel against Energy Index.

Today we integrate our Alpha Global portfolio with the following 55 assets. Forex (EUR USD, AUD USD, GBP USD, CAD USD, JPY USD, CHF USD, Yuan Rnmbi, Indian rupee, NZD USD), Energy (Crude, Natural Gas, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Petroleum, Carbon Emissions, Brent, WTM, Energy Index), Metals (Precious Metals, Tin, Zinc, Nickel, Copper, Platinum, Silver, Industrial Metals Index, Gold), Agro (Coffee, Corn, Grains, Livestock, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton), Thematic and Global Equity (Coal Mining Fund, Shipping Fund, Dow Industrials, Sense, Agricultural Equity, Water, Nuclear, Russell 2000, Russell 1000 USD), Bonds (US 30, US 5Y,  US 10Y, US 2Y, INR Bond Index, China Bond Index, Australian Bond Fund, Global Bond Index, Sweden Bond Index).

Now you will see us doing seemingly exotic strategies where we unwind AIGI-Nickel pair at a profit by just closing the Nickel leg and shifting AIGI exposure against short Carbon. It just sounds strange. Markets and assets are connected in time through performance. Time does not differentiate between zinc and coffee. It’s the same inefficient divergent pairs that can be profited from. Lack of cross asset pair tradability is a myth. Get ready for long zinc, short coffee pair. We are expecting a signal on the pair soon.

To read the latest Alpha Global report download it from the links below.

The latest Alpha Global carries pair tracker signals, numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles.

For more information on Alpha Global mail us at [email protected]

Numeric Ranking Assets

Performance Cycles - Aggregate Assets

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles - I

Performance Cycles II

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Agro, Forex, Metals, Energy

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Introducing Alpha global pair portfolio tracker

The Alpha global portfolio tracker will be posted in the member’s area on a daily basis. The portfolio covers Agro, Forex, Metals and Energy pairs. For more information on Alpha global pair portfolio tracker mail us at [email protected]

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and Numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Coverage: Agro, Forex, Metals, Energy

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Econohistory is the study of performance cycles between assets. Cycles are the generic name for time fractals. Performance cycles can be studied for any time frame, for as small as a tick data to multiyear time frames. This objective approach to performance cyclicality can explain why intermarket analysis is an area of study? Why bonds and commodities tend to be inversely related? What is the connection of Oil with world markets? Why the world watches DOW sometimes and sometimes a 500 point effect on DOW seems to have no impact? Why correlation between assets moves from near perfect at times to weak correlation at other times? Why the same news has different impact on a stock or market? Why equities and bond trend together and why the relationship decouples sometime? When will inflation become deflation, disinflation, stagflation or hyperinflation? When and why does gold outperform and underperform silver? Econohistory can objectively answer these questions, using performance cycles, time fractals and past data. Economic history is mathematical.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


The gold short

Historical highs are very tempting buy points. Can this best time for Gold bulls be the worst entry point?

If you ask market players to compare physical gold and simple arithmetical relative performance, what do you think investors would choose? Yes definitely gold. When it comes to gold, we can short all sanity and go long all owning gold. The very fact that the society is so long on irrationality is the reason that time cyclicality works. Markets move from one extreme to the other and it is between these two extremes that the society pauses, gets into excitement lows, becomes conservative, talks about value, lays down new foundations and structures, talks about ethics and corporate governance, gets debt smart etc. This pause is also known as rationality.

Gold is a part of the global asset complex that moves with market mood. Market players see the rising and falling, but the society can’t calculate relative performance. How much did my gold portfolio deliver compared to the rest of the market from start of the year? A very basic question to secular gold bulls who never stop believing in gold. How much did gold rise from Mar 2009 compared to dollar? Should gold bulls worry about dollar strengthening? How much did gold deliver in a currency other than dollar?

Read the complete article on Alrroya

If all this case of short negativity was not enough on Gold, we have performance cycles on the metals complex. Gold has a topping performance cycle and the yellow metal is top in the ranking of 10 metals. Just like Copper, Silver, Nickel took turns to underperform, it’s time for Gold to underperform the rest of the metals. There is no better time to reduce gold in the portfolio, or short it than when it is at the top. Gold should not only relatively underperform rest of the metals complex but also just might surprise the absolute bulls.

Strategy Update

The latest Alpha Metals carries numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles, running pair signals, new pairs and pair trackers. For more information on Alpha Metals mail us at [email protected]

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Metals: Steel, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, Aluminium, Uranium, Gold, Silver, Lead

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Short Nickel, Long AIGP up 56% in 52 days

We suggested shorting Nickel against AIGP (Precious Metals) on 19 Apr. The pair is up 56% in 52 days. We illustrated the silver outperformance on 22 Feb. Barring long silver-Short AIGP, which gave away all the 10% gains, the other two pairs viz. long silver-short copper, long silver- short platinum delivered. Now silver has reached numeric ranking tops and copper has reached the bottom.

The latest Alpha Metals carries numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles, running pair signals, new pairs and pair trackers. To keep up with updated signals, mail us for subscription details.

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

METALS: STEEL, ZINC, NICKEL, TIN, ALUMINIUM, URANIUM, GOLD, SILVER, LEAD

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Is it time to close silver pairs?

This is what we said on 19 Apr. “Shorting Nickel when Business Week publishes a Nickel Deficit story is again being contrarian. But there has to be something with performance cycles which spots extreme sentiment and potential reversal. The tool based on time fractals suggest that Nickel should underperform Gold and Short Nickel even if not on an absolute basis, should work against AIGP (73% gold)” What happened? Short Nickel, long AIGP is up 25% from 19 April 2010.

On 22 Feb we initiated three pairs, long Silver-short copper, long silver-short Precious metals (AIGP), long silver – short Platinum. What happened? Long silver, short copper is up 20% since 22 Feb. This is 93% annualized non leveraged returns. Long silver, short AIGP is up 43% annualized (9.4% since 22 Feb.) and long silver - short platinum is up 35% annualized (non leveraged) for the same period. Now that silver has moved from bottom rankings to near top, it is time for us to close silver - copper pair. We will still hold on to silver – AIGP (precious metals index) and silver - platinum for a while more. It is time for a new pair.

The latest Alpha Metals carries numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles, running pair signals, new pairs and pair trackers. To keep up with updated signals, mail us for subscription details.

Numeric Ranking

Strategy Update

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

METALS: STEEL, ZINC, NICKEL, TIN, ALUMINIUM, URANIUM, GOLD, SILVER, LEAD

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


Anticipated short copper up 13% against silver

On 22 Feb we initiated three pairs, long Silver-short copper, long silver-short Precious metals (AIGP), long silver - short Platinum. All the pairs are positive and running. Long silver - short copper is up 13% in 71 days.

How can silver outperform copper? And how can the performance be indentified? On 6 Apr we carried a complete case, “Why should copper Underperform?” In that Alpha update we said “The performance cycle is overstretched in favor of copper outperformance and the performance cycle should reverse contrary to popular belief.”

On 16 Apr we made a case for nickel and tin in “Will short nickel work?” We carried the cases as expected reversals. Both pairs i.e. long precious metals index (AIGP) and short Nickel and Tin are up 7% and 6% since then. We initiate the pairs today.

The latest Alpha Metals carries numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, performance cycles, running pair signals and pair trackers. To keep up with updated signals, mail us for subscription details.

Pair Tracker

Numeric Ranking

Strategy Update

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

METALS: STEEL, ZINC, NICKEL, TIN, ALUMINIUM, URANIUM, GOLD, SILVER, LEAD

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


Will short Nickel work?

Shorting Nickel when Business Week publishes a Nickel Deficit story is again being contrarian. But there has to be something with performance cycles which spots extreme sentiment and potential reversal. The tool based on time fractals suggest that Nickel should underperform Gold and Short Nickel even if not on an absolute basis, should work against AIGP (73% gold).

Nickel did not make it to the cover of the magazine. A magazine cover indicator can give further negative confirmation on a popular asset. However, new price highs on Nickel backed by loads of fundamentals makes a valid case to review Nickel’s performer status.

What are the fundamental reasons? The deficit may happen first time in 4 Years, as the global economy recovers. Nickel being an industrial metal recovered with the economy. To assume that it will keep pushing higher is like expecting economic cycle to continue the upside. That may happen, but how do we find whether the cycle of Nickel performance is topping or bottoming? First let’s try to ask a few questions. Where are the demand numbers going to be highest, at cycle tops or bottoms? Demand numbers crash at bottom and skyrocket at the top. So are we really forecasting or extrapolating?

Nickel is used to increase the corrosion resistance of stainless steel. About two-thirds of global nickel production is used in stainless steel and because domestic stainless production has recovered to 80-90 percent of normal levels, Nickel should rise. This again is extrapolation. Steel has recovered, it should continue to push higher and hence influence Nickel positively, simple causal explanations. This is the reason why majority of fundamental reasons have China. China grows, demand grows, and Nickel grows.

If only life would be so easy. Orpheus is negative on China (Waves. Global). We are expecting intermediate negativity ahead. The latest Alpha metals illustrate performance cycles between Gold and Nickel, Industrial Metals and Nickel to validate our underperformance case on Nickel.

Nickel vs. Gold performance is cyclical. Nickel takes turns against Gold in performance. Long Nickel - short Gold delivered 82% (17 Feb 2009 - 4 Aug 2009); short Nickel – long Gold delivered 50% (6 Aug 2009 - 1 Dec 2009), long Nickel - short Gold delivered 69% (2 Dec 2009 - 15 Apr 2010). This was an average of 139 calendar days. Now the cycles suggest that it is time for short Nickel - long Gold.

We also looked at the intermarket relationship between AIGI (Industrials metals Index) and Nickel. The metal has reached an intermarket performance high against industrial metals now. Last time Nickel reached a high in outperformance against AIGI was on 5 Aug 2009. Nickel underperformed industrial metals by 31% till Jan 2010.

The idea of performance cycles is simple. Time cycles work across time frames and relative performance is cyclical. A cycle turns down when it reaches a high, like it seems to have for Nickel. This is why short nickel long gold should be near. The latest Alpha carries numeric rankings, numeric ranking changes, pair signals, performance cycles and strategy update. For more information mail us for more details on Alpha Metals.

Strategy Update

Numeric Ranking

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

METALS: STEEL, ZINC, NICKEL, TIN, ALUMINIUM, URANIUM, GOLD, SILVER, LEAD

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

To login to the member’s area or access Orpheus estore click here.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


Why should copper underperform?

Can you give me a few reasons for the question above? One would say contrarianism can be genetic. So when copper is all over in the news, it’s easy to conjure up short copper rabbits. This is not true. Research is not about being a contrarian, or should I say about being a contrarian only. Research is about being objective rather than anything else.

Now another question one may ask how can be objectivity be so polarized. On one side we have top researchers writing about copper upside suggesting the following reasons.

“China and the U.S. are the world’s biggest consumers of copper, we’re in a seasonally high-demand period as factories step up production, Copper, used in houses and autos, can set the pace for other industrial metals such as nickel and Tin, metal’s recovery underscores the revival of the global economy, Barclays Capital forecasts a move to more than $8,000 a ton in the second quarter, Copper may rise this week as stronger manufacturing figures feed speculation demand is improving.”

Real objectivity cannot be polarized. Only subjectivity gets polarized. Now I have a few questions to ask my research community, long copper analysts. Do you know since when copper been outperforming gold? Do you know how much copper outperformed Gold has since Feb 2009? Are you aware of what it means if copper outperforms gold? Is it right to extrapolate copper upside with Nickel and Tin strength? Do you track Nickel and Tin relatively outperformance against Gold?

I can already hear some answers and yes those answers are right. Copper has been outperforming Gold since Feb 2009 delivering 120% over the period. Copper outperformance suggests a positive underlying economic growth. Copper growth is generally accompanied by growth in stock markets. Gold on the other side is a crisis commodity and does not generally grow when stocks are on an upmove. And yes copper growth also boosts growth of other metals like Nickel and Tin.

But the real questions are a bit different. How long and how much do you think copper can outperform Gold, another 120% for another 12 months? Do you know just like copper, nickel and tin also outperformed AIGP (precious metals index) and were up 60% (Dec 09) and 30% (Nov 2009) respectively. How long do you think a cycle of outperformance can last between two leading metal assets? Is there some quantified statistics available regarding copper outperformance cycles against gold? Does anything like this exist?

These are hard factual questions, which are emotionless and objective. If copper outperforms gold for another 100% (i.e. 200% netted from gold performance), we are headed for an unsustainable bubble on copper irrespective of what copper does on an absolute basis. Let’s have some metals expert opinion? How many times in the history of copper has this happened (copper outperforming gold by 200%)? The answers are pretty obvious. Markets move from one extreme to the other. Now we are in a time when copper has outperformed gold. There has been a similar time when the polarity reversed.

The latest alpha metals carries numeric ranking on the metals complex. Nickel and tin have already reached the top 3 in relative performance rankings and copper lies immediately below them. After more than 12 months one way performance and topping performance cycles, we are more cautious than bullish about copper, tin and nickel outperformance against precious metals index irrespective of anything.

We are still running long silver against short copper, platinum and AIGP. Long Silver – Short gold is up 16%. We are awaiting short (underperforming) signals on nickel and tin against AIGP. The latest alpha metals carry numeric ranking, numeric ranking changes, strategy update, pair tracker and performance cycles. Numeric ranking is bases on price performance. This is an objective system, which has proved that performance is cyclical, copper cannot go to moon leaving gold behind. The performance cycle is overstretched in favor of copper outperformance and the performance cycle should reverse contrary to popular belief. We review if needed.

Pair Tracker

Numeric Ranking

Strategy Update

Performance Cycles

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only - short only strategy and numeric ranking product based on TIME fractals. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

METALS: STEEL, ZINC, NICKEL, TIN, ALUMINIUM, URANIUM, GOLD, SILVER, LEAD

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications. *This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

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