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Orpheus to manage THOMSON REUTERS Technical Analysis Forum

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FORUM: A Chat Room for Reuters Messaging (RM) users following the CEE market. Join the TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Forum for real-time analysis and commentary on the CEE and global assets.


With great pleasure we are happy to inform you about the launch of Reuters Technical Analysis forum for Europe. Technical Analysis has emerged as a vibrant forecasting and market perspective tool. The forum will enable users to share and discuss charts, models, news and various other aspects of markets. For a start the forum will cover assets (equities, currencies, bonds) from Romania, Bulgaria, Austria, top European and American Indices (DAX, CAC, FTSE, DOW, S&P500), top commodities (Gold and Oil) and top traded Forex pairs (EUR=, JPY=, EURRON= etc.)



Access to the
Technical Analysis Forum and our other market based Chat Rooms is only available to RM Premium users, along with forms, screenshots and file sharing capabilities. If you or your contacts are interested in participating in the Technical Analysis Forum please contact [email protected]


QUESTION: My question is regarding COUNTING. I want to know that at which point of time one should change the count from 1 to 2 and from 2 to 3. i.e. how we can confirm that wave 1 is over and wave 2 has began. Is it so that on every positive and negative bar on daily, weekly or monthly we need to change or alter the count? Or counting is just a visual interpretation of finding a pause of a sharp pull back in any rally.

ANSWER: Elliott waves are fractals, so there are more than one indication when a wave could be ending or begining. If you are new to wave counting getting accustomed to a five and three wave structures should be the first step. If you can differentiate between the two, you will realise that impulses (1,3,5) are diffrentiable from (2 and 4) in both form and magnitude. Three wave corrective or counter trend structures generally retrace 38.2 - 61.8%. The illustration shows how the second waves retraced and clearly indicated that the 3 or the next impulse higher should begin.



Q: Do the inter-market cycles still suggest that nifty under-performs DOW/S&P?

A: Intermediate Sensex vs. Dow, Nifty vs. Dow, Nifty vs. S&P500, performance cycle remains negative. There are a lot of analysts using seasonal tendencies. We don’t look at seasonal tendencies so closely.

Q: Neckline Retest: I think the neckline has been retested and nifty is above the neckline. It seems the bearish head and shoulder would nullify if nifty is above 4500. We will never know that till we reach there but what’s the time frame for the pattern to play out?

A: Yes. You are right, conventional resistances are challenged. If conventional levels are playing, it should turn now.

Q: I guess it’s best to stay out when there is confusion regarding Elliott?

A: The wave count A-B-C is lacking as C is not a clear impulse. This is why a W-X-Y could be assumed. The move up has also gapped and is accompanied by an over reactive momentum. From a cycle perspective, if minor cycles have to act they should now.

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The view from the top has a five wave look while the C leg is still overlapping and looks like a 7.  It’s tough to reconcile that C/3 down is over when the overall view looks like a 5-3-7. This is why we continue to maintain that the leg up could still be a corrective with lower resolution incomplete. The only problem in this view is that there is not much place for error now. If this view is correct prices should turn now.

TICKS.INDIA.150709 - 12:25 SENSEX QUARTERLY Primary cycles will only bottom somewhere in 2011-2012 window. A simple reason the JUGLAR cycles are generally 9-12 years. This means that 2009 is too early for the cycle that started in 2002 low to be considered complete.

12:30 SENSEX INTERMEDIATE CYCLES The reason OCT 08 - MAR 09 lows may not be tested or breached is because CYCLE LOWS now are of a smaller degree than the lows witnessed in OCT 08-MAR 09 lows. The best case of a deep retracement from here also should not take us below 11,196. A small observation as a bull caution is the KR (KEY REVERSAL) bar that is still holding at the recent top. As you can see its too soon to call the intermediate correction complete.