Archive for the ‘Romania’ category

TGN vs. RRC

TGN is the utility major that is still positive. However, the top performance rankings suggest that we are ending the current formation and heading for high resistance ahead. RRC on the other hand remains negative on the trending system and low on performance rankings. We continue to look at busying interest coming in at lower levels near 0.5 Fibonacci and psychological supports near 0.05 levels.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Gold Silver Index Rieki ready to reverse?

Alpha Romania. Mid Economic: As anticipated VESY delivered positive returns moving up by 13%. The RIEKI and LOSO (trending system) remain positive. The mid economic sector consists industrial majors. Alpha also delivered in case of short Armatura, which dropped 15%. Condmag remains a bottoming stock ready for accumulation. And Electroaparataj and Electro Arges remain overstretched and potential underperformers.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Alpha Romania - Vesy delivers 13%

Alpha Romania. Mid Economic: As anticipated VESY delivered positive returns moving up by 13%. The RIEKI and LOSO (trending system) remain positive. The mid economic sector consists industrial majors. Alpha also delivered in case of short Armatura, which dropped 15%. Condmag remains a bottoming stock ready for accumulation. And Electroaparataj and Electro Arges remain overstretched and potential underperformers.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Alpha Romania Indices - TLV, BRD and BRK

Financials are an early economic sector and generally outperform when economic cycle is up. The reason is very simple. Renewed need for credit only happens in a growing economy. This may seem hard to believe, but both TLV and BRD are the best potential outperformers according to the latest pair grid. This is in sharp contrast to the other two financial companies viz. BVB and BRK. The brokerage major and the listed stock exchange company are both the top ranked performers and hence the most expensive in the list of 54 assets we cover in Alpha Romania. We continue to look at an underperformance in BRK and BVB and would reduce it in our Rieki portfolio. We anticipated outperformance in BRD and TLV and will increase the allocations for the respective stocks.  The Pair grid carries the best with the worst. The grid suggests that TEL, TGN, SNP, Dafora, CMP and Vrancart are expensive and should underperform. While natural gas, Condmag, Amonil, Alumil, Mecanica and Rompetrol Well services are the best hold. We have updated the latest alpha with Rieki perspectives and LOSO tracker.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


The Dollar View


The view on the dollar influences the Romanian equity market. Regionally, currency strengthening is known to have a positive effect on the local equity markets. If the currency strengthens, the markets do well and vice versa. Dollar Rieki is still positive. This should have a negative effect on Romanian Leu, which confirms our negative view on Romanian markets. LOSO for most of the financial and early economic sector remains negative.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Early Economic update.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


The Index Rieki

Index Rieki depicts the performance cyclicality of an Index. Just like a stock outperforms and underperforms, so does an index witness seasonality in performance. The difference between an Index Rieki and stock Rieki is that an Index is an average of stock prices and hence is less volatile than the stock. This is the reason an Index Rieki will rarely go to extreme ranking like (best or worst).
Rieki works like an oscillator. A falling oscillator is negative suggesting underperformance and vice versa. Rieki oscillators can be studied like conventional momentum indicators. We can look for non confirmations, head and shoulder patterns, supports and resistance.

The latest Alpha carries the anticipated and happened cases on Hungarian BUX and Stoxx Euro 50 (Ticks. Global). Now ATX and Czech PX are ready to reverse. Dollar Index is running positive both on LOSO and Rieki. CEERIUS Index is already negative and with a topping Rieki suggests further negative confirmation. We don’t have an encouraging picture on most equity indices including the local Romanian indices. BETNG has a topping Rieki and negative LOSO. We continue to look at negativity underperformance for the respective index.

The Alpha 54 coverage includes the following equity and commodity Indices. Hungarian BUX, Dow Jones Industrials, Bulgarian REITs, Stoxx Euro 50, Polish WIG, Austrian ATX, Czech PX, Gold and Silver Index, Dollar Index, Natural Gas Index and Brent Crude.

The latest Alpha carries the anticipated and happened cases on Hungarian BUX and Stoxx Euro 50 (Ticks. Global). Now ATX and Czech PX are ready to reverse. Dollar Index is running positive both on LOSO and Rieki. CEERIUS Index is already negative and with a topping Rieki suggests further negative confirmation. We don’t have an encouraging picture on most equity indices including the local Romanian indices. BETNG has a topping Rieki and negative LOSO. We continue to look at negativity underperformance for the respective index.

The Alpha Romania 54 coverage includes the following equity and commodity Indices. Hungarian BUX, Dow Jones Industrials, Bulgarian REITs, Stoxx Euro 50, Polish WIG, Austrian ATX, Czech PX, Gold and Silver Index, Dollar Index, Natural Gas Index and Brent Crude.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Alpha.Rom - Elliott and LOSO

Elliott wave is a price pattern theory which suggests the trends move in five wave formations and counter trend moves in three wave structures. After a five wave completes prices retrace in a three wave structure. Orpheus LOSO trending system is slow and seeks price confirmation before reversing. The LOSO tracker will only alert us in case a trend is in place and not otherwise. So in the case of SIF5 till the time counter trend is weak and not challenging the previous down trend SIF5 will remain negative. LOSO is now negative on most financials along with best sell BVB and BRK. SIF2 and SIF4 are the new shorts. BVB and BRK remain the top ranking shorts. BETFI is also negative on LOSO and Rieki.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


RRC delivers 18%

Though the last LOSO negative signal on RRC delivered 9%, the trending system has been negative for 163 days out of 193 trading days since 14 may. During this period RRC fell by 18%. Trending systems work best in trended markets. The RIEKI performance cycles remains up but topping and even technically we don’t have a reversal signal yet. RSI momentum is oversold, but still negative. We have illustrated the OIL prices, which are also suggesting an exhausting structure. The minor trend remains negative for the stock. The latest Alpha carries the late economic update with the LOSO tracker update. Prefab delivered 10%.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Alpha.Rom - The TGN trap

When the trending systems gives only a few buy signals and coincidentally those few buys are also the best performers among 54 assets than you can be sure it’s a trap.

TGN is still a buy on the trending system as the prices continue to stay near historical tops. However, the very fact that TGN is the best of the best and the rest of the market is in negative indicates that TGN is a trap and the market bias is clearly negative. TGN is going to reverse sooner than later.

All of TLV, BRK, RRC, TRANSELECTRICA, COMI, SIF5 DEC, SIF1, SIF3, SIF5, TERPLAST, IMPACT, BETFI, BET, ALUMIL, AMO, ARMATURA, CEON, PREFAB, HUNGARIAN BUX are negative.

We have updated Alpha with the latest Rieki.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


Alpha.Rom - BETXT positive signal closed.

The BETXT positive signal closed on 3 Nov. Since then the index has fallen by 5%. The latest Alpha carries the industrial majors. As anticipated SOCEP, Armatura and Condmag pushed further lower into negativity. Armatura was down 24% since the LOSO negative signal on 22 July. We have enclosed the tracker with respective LOSO signals.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).