Archive for the ‘The Orpheus Newsletter’ category

The intuition system

High mathematics downplays intuition as unsystematic, emotional, and unaccountable. However, the more we move into time systems and try to mechanize entries and exits, we realize that we can never eliminate risk. Execution is about intuition.

At the heart of things we are all investors, whether some of us are overdoing it with housewife calls or calling ourselves knowledge workers who have nothing to do with markets, we are a part of the same chain. Stock market intuition is a high skill for life. We confuse it with speculation and all that herding.

First and foremost, the intuition system is not very fast moving. If you think you have one, it should not give you calls every day intraday, it should be more like a multi month, maybe 18-24 month system or more. Intuition systems are not more about trends.  Intuition systems guide us with understanding minimal risks. What is a minimal risk entry or exit?  Intuition systems are also built on patience. You can’t have an intuition system based on stress related to certain expiration. Intuition system is something which gives you the confidence to buy puts, bleed but rollover at expirations. If you are bleeding every 18 months, it is a minimal risk, not high risk. If you are doing puts and calls every month, you have no intuition system.

The problem with intuition systems is that they are generally about a crash or scary bubbles. A real intuition system works both ways, telling you to buy in Mar 2009 or telling you to sell now in Nov 2010. A test of intuition systems could be if it can differentiate between underperformance and outperformance. But then intuition systems can’t do everything.

The performance ranking we have mentioned on prior occasion is a good decision support for intuition systems. The best of the best are too be avoided and the worst of worst are to be selected. This simple idea can give you the courage to listen to your intuition if you think gold, silver and metals are really overstretched.  It could avoid a loss, when you are short sugar, short cotton as they continued to rise exponentially. It could be a test of nerves, but that that’s how intuition systems brave. The crack on sugar and cotton reinforced the system for all who believed like us that Agro was a best sell. We are still running the long Natgas – Short Sugar pair. As anticipated our best short on Banks, Auto and LIC Housing mentioned by Anna in the India pair grid are still running. Our annual rankings suggest Suzlon, Reliance, Reliance power are the best holds. And yes our intuition systems are looking for best shorts.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: BSE500 stocks, Indian Indices, Commodities, Currrency and Bonds.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009


Eid Mubarak

Source: Wikipidea

Eid Mubarak


Gaming like Cleo

My cat Cleo loves to play. She is a big communicator when it comes to gaming. She is a gamer. The more I see her playing, the more I see a behavior similarity with humans. The idea of play is equally important if not less in investments. Or maybe it becomes important in time. She knows where the ball is but she will look the other way, walk a bit ahead and then turn and crouch, getting ready to attack.

A reader on mail asked, “I am genuinely worried about the rising Sensex but I don’t know why I am worried about rising prices. I don’t want to have my savings wiped out when foreign investors start pulling out their money. I don’t understand why domestic FIIs are selling and foreign FIIs are buying. so are the foreign fund inflows likely to stop/ stabilize soon?

Just like Cleo, many of market participants are playing, like Crystal Moore admitted, her job was to sign not to read. The people who made her sign were gaming too. There is a wide section of us, who gamble and play. How can we assume that domestic and foreign FII’s have no play element. Ultimately what does majority understand by speculation? It’s a game for them.

Of course its fun to play the game, but that could be a lot of risk. How about adding a system to the game, a risk reducing system? If you are an investor wondering the game of FII’s, let’s help you lay down the ground rules for a system based play. 1: We cover 120 assets which includes CNX100 components and sector indices. 2: We rank them on multiple holding periods. 3: The worst rankers are best holds and buys and best rankers are best sells and reduce, simple.

The attached pair gird from 120 Indian assets suggests that for the intermediate period the best holds are: Punj Lloyd, Suzlon, Housing Development and Infrastructure, Tech Mahindra, GMR Infrastructure, Sesa Goa and Sterlite and the Best reduce are Federal Bank, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, Cummins, Corporation Bank and Bajaj Auto.

The current outlook of the market may need effort to understand what the FII’s are doing, but don’t forget the threes.
3 negative for the markets. 1: Volatility is coming out of historical lows and should rise. This could mean fast down activity. 2: A similar structure suggests Rupee multi week weakness (negative for equity) 3: Markets generally correct an 18-20 month upsides in both time and price. We have carried anticipated and happened cases.

3 Positives. 1: There are more than a few sectors (stocks) that can hedge (falling less or not falling at all). 2: Quantity of fall may not be more than 30% from current levels. 3: Hedging Put options owing to current low volatility are still cheap.
3 Strategies. 1: A simple ranking process can isolate the potential outperformers. 2: This ranking is linked to a certain holding period (say a quarter).3: The ranking process also isolates the potential underperformers that should be closed or reduced in a portfolio. And the best part we can do it for you. We will rank your portfolio and tell you which of your assets are mismatched with your holding periods (quarterly, monthly, weekly etc.). We will tell you which of your assets are going to underperform and which are going to outperform. We can also tell you which of your assets are going to be more volatile. So if you are uncomfortable with the current market situation, we could help you reduce your portfolio risk. Maybe watching the game would be relaxing and not stressing then.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: 100 top traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Orpheus Store

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Global Intermarket Conference, Budapest

The Global Intermarket Conference
Budapest
Saturday, January 15th, 2011

As markets get integrated and opportunities shift from one asset to the other, intermarket analysis gains prominence among market participants. At a time when Gold is at an all time high and interest rates at an all time low, one wonders whether we are in inflationary or deflationary times. Agro asset prices have started to rise, Indian markets are at a new high, some European economies are struggling with a debt crisis, Oil continues to stay below dollar 100, pinpointing performance and isolating alpha gets tougher. The conference will address the area of intermarket perspective between global assets attempting to identify outperforming sectors in 2011.

Are times ahead inflationary or deflationary?
Is it time to hold cash or tangible assets?
Will Gold continue to outperform global equity?
Will China boost the global economy?
Will Oil reach $100 in 2011?
What are the driving stories for Central Eastern Europe?
Is EUR DOLLAR parity a reality?
What will be the top sectors of growth?
Will financial sector outperform or underperform?
How to decode intermarket cyclicality?

For registration and further details visit the Market Technicians Association.



Alpha Romania Coverage increases to 54

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow,  CEE Indices (54 assets).

Orpheus Store

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Market Quotes

The movement of money from one area to another is inherently unsustainable and destined to reverse itself. The money pilling up in the pockets of the citizens of the gaining country will encourage them to go out and buy things, while the loss of purchasing power in the losing country will lead its citizens of the gaining country will encourage them to go out and buy things, while the loss of purchasing power in the losing country will lead its citizens to tighten their belts and buy less; prices will rise in the gaining country and fall in the losing country. This shift in demand will in time reverse the flow of money back to the country that first suffered the outflow. As a result it is impossible to heap up money, more than any other fluid, beyond its proper level.

David Hume, Of the Balance of Trade

Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought.

Albert Szent-Gyorgi, Nobel Prize Winner, Medicine, 1937

‘I had to do so much with so little, for so long, that I can do anything with nothing.’

Chris Gardner, quotes his mother

Buying at the start of a bubble is “rational”

George Soros talking on Gold

Against a world average of around four hospital beds per 1000 population, India lags behind at just over 0.72.

KPMG Health Care Report

You can’t suddenly make India a China.

Surya Sethi, World Bank Official commenting on India’s Power sector

As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing, because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.

William Stanley Jevons

Formal education will make you a living, self education make a fortune.

Jim Rohn

More money was lost trying to get the last TICK than was made catching the whole move.

Bernard Baruch

Simplicity or singleness of approach is a greatly underestimated factor of market success.

Garfield Drew

The crowd is actually correct most of the time and it is at turning points that they get things wrong.

Humphrey Neill

The element of time can no more be eliminated from successful speculation… than from any other business.

Thomas Gibson, The facts about speculation 1923

Stocks don’t sell for what they are worth but for what people think they are worth.

Garfield Drew

Danger of losing your position in the middle of the trend.

Edward LeFevre’s, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

“It looks as if 1000 in the Average could be our next major target.”

Hamilton Bolton,April 1964, Dow Jones Industrial 812, Extracts from Elliott Wave Reviews, The Writings of A. Hamilton Bolton

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

John Maynard Keynes

“The Efficient Market Hypothesis can land you in jail”

Dismal science, dismal sentence, Sep 7, 2006 - The Economist Print Edition

In one respect markets are like houses. They take longer to build than they do to tear down. Markets spend most of their time advancing rather than declining. This means that the lead characteristics of momentum indicators are usually more pronounced at market peaks than at troughs.

Martin Pring on Market Momentum

“The laws of nature, and incidentally economics, are ruthless, which is as it should be”

Ralph N Elliott, Biography, R.N.Elliott’s Masterworks

“Logic always applies, if your premises are correct and knowledge sufficient”

Robert Prechter,The Writings of A. Hamilton Bolton

“It is foolish to short emerging markets, they are so euphoric that it is too dangerous”.

Emerging Market Investor, Apr 06

“Phenomena of mass action (are) under impulsions and controls which no science has explored”

Bernard Baruch, Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds, 1932

B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculator’s paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a narrow list of stocks, are often “unconfirmed” by other averages, are rarely technically strong and are virtually always doomed to complete the retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, “there is something wrong with this market”, chances are it’s a B wave.

Frost & Prechter

When markets are topping, there is always another top. And when markets bottom there is always another bottom.

Aristata

There has been no change in demand and supply. How did prices fall from $78 to $58 per barrel?

P Chidambaram, Finance Minister, India
CII (Confedration of Indian Industry) and the World Economic Forum, Nov 27, 2006

The less secure we are economically the more secure we are economically.

Carl J. Schramm. The Entrepreneurial Imperative

Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits - a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.

John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, 161-162

Greed arrogance and unscrupulousness are the way of the world

Economist - Teaching of Conrad Black’s Father

Peasant Logic - Scare your opponent enough, and he will give you what you want.

Khruschev’s Cold War

Journalism needs to become a community service rather than a profit centre.

Craig Newmark, of Craigslist

“January 1 will enter history books as a moment of irreversible change toward a more secure and prosperous future,”

President Traian Basescu told Romania’s parliament.

75% of all stocks move up with a bull market, and 90% of all stocks move down with a bear market.

Anonymous

Vivid examples of planning failures and partial reforms—for example, a quarter of all shoes sold in Hungary in 1951 were officially classed as substandard.

Mr Eichengreen

“I got into this market to make $100,000 a year and feed my family and to allow my wife to stay home with the kids. I never in my wildest dreams thought we’d be here at the center of the U.S. equities market.”

Dave Cummings, BATS

“I think what the Fed is trying to tell us is that it is between a rock and a hard place. And when you’re between and a rock and a hard place, you just can’t move,”

Drew Matus, senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings

There are only three sports - bullfighting, motor racing, and mountaineering.

Hemingway

The “great redeeming feature of poverty,” George Orwell wrote after his excursions in the social gutters of Paris and London, is “the fact that it annihilates the future”.

Uproar is the music of capitalism

Joseph Schumpeter

Putting a biomass water-heater in the basement tends to be easier than sticking a windmill on the roof.

Economist

Ethanol can be produced in backyard plants.

Economist

Markets tend to do a better job then the STATE and Economists

Aristata

“If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”

Saying in Washington

20% of Denamark’s energy come from WINDS

WIND STATISTICS

The carbon market is truly innovative. The trade is not actually in carbon, but in not carbon.

Economist

The five dirty industries covered by ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) are ELECTRICITY, OIL, METALS, BUILDING MATERIALS AND PAPER .

Economist

“In business, you reward people for taking risks. When it doesn’t work out, you promote them because they were willing to try new things. If people come back and tell me they skied all day and never fell down, I tell them to try a different mountain.”

Bloomberg 0607

“SKY - high copper prices; rock bottom education”

Student Banner in CHILE, 1006

10 million Indonesians live on $1 a day, and 100 million on $2 a day

Econostats

A new theory is attacked as absurd;then it is admitted to be true, but obvious and insignificant; finally, it is seen to be so important that it’s adversaries claim that they themselves have discovered it.

William James

One day the world will be ready for you and wonder how they didn’t see it

Eels

In business, success often depends upon the relative age of your ideas. And today, people of all ages are in trouble because their ideas aren’t just old, they’re obsolete. One example of an old idea is that of the traditional job. Jobs are a centuries-old concept created during the industrial revolution. Despite the reality that we’re now deep in the Information Age, many people are studying for, or working at, or clinging to the Industrial Age idea of a safe, secure job.

Kiosaki

One notorious sceptic of the Asian miracle was Paul Krugman, who had argued before the crisis that Asia’s growth was the result of “perspiration rather than inspiration”, based on increasing inputs of capital and labour rather than productivity gains, and would therefore prove unsustainable.

East Asian Economics, 10 year Crisis Anniversary

Once China’s currency the Yuan, is fully convertible, Honk Kong will be just another Chinese port.

Hong Kong Pessimists

Gay households is growing five times faster than the population itself. The last consensus in 200 counted 600000 same sex couples. Most Fortune 500 companies paid offered the same health insurance to employee gay partners as to spouses first time last year.

Gary Gates

If factories go, there will be nothing left

Sarkozy

Nation is not at war, the military is at war

US Military commanders

A superpower can lose a war - in Vietnam or Iraq - without ceasing to be a superpower.

Robert Kagan

4.6% of World’s (Defense spending) population in USA with a 27.5% World GDP spends 46% of total World defense budget ($1.2 trillion.)

US Factsheet

The trouble though, is that America’s forces were designed for sprints not marathons

Pentagon

I am proud to be a speculator. I am proud that my humble attempts to predict Tuesday’s prices on Monday are an indispensable component of our society. By buying low and selling high, I create harmony and freedom,

Victor Niederhoffer

There is always an easy solution to every human problem — neat, plausible and wrong.

H. L. Mencken

There are no failures, merely different outcomes.

Penny Thornton

Just when you think you’ve found the key to wall street, they go and change the locks.

Granville


Orpheus at Hunedoara

October 9, 2010

The training will cover the following strategies and ideas.

1:  Is Romanian Market in a Bull market?

2:  Is EURRON headed to 4,5 in Dec 2010?

3:  Why is Gold a multiyear investment?

4:  Where is the global economy headed?

5:  What is the DOW JONES year end perspective?

6: How can you hedge with Dow, SIF5 futures?

7: Can hedging make a profit?

8: What are the different arbitrage strategies in Romania?

9: What is the mathematical approach to stock picking?

10: How to reduce portfolio risk?

For further details please drop us a mail or visit the following weblink

Castlelul Corvinilor- Venue

Register at SIBEX - Sibiu Derivatives Exchange

Orpheus Capitals, Global Alternative Research Company

Orpheus Capitals is listed with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent researcher. The research startup is headed by Market Technicians from Market Technicians Association, New York. The research outfit publishes 300 research reports internationally on Reuters and Thomson platforms monthly. The coverage includes global equity, metals, forex, agro, energy, bonds and green assets. The forecasts cover asset classes across time frames. Orpheus is the only company in India, C&E Europe to do intraday research on indices, futures and various other assets.

Speaker Profile: Mukul Pal

Mukul Pal, Co-Founder, Orpheus Capitals is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance. Orpheus Research is registered with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent research company.

He is a member of the Market Technicians association. He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is also an authorized investment consultant by the CNVM (Romanian Capital Market Regulator).

Mukul has actively researched on ‘Time’ and has written some seminal paper on the mathematical hierarchy of time. His first paper on performance cycles was published in the Kyoto Economics Journal in Mar 2009. Recently his paper on Time Fractals was accepted by the ERN History of Economics Journal and Capital Markets Market Microstructure eJournal (SSRN Economics Research Network).

Time Fractals attempt to explain the exponentiality in nature and markets. The subject has wide application even outside capital markets. He has written extensively on derivatives markets, sentiment indicators, alternative research, investment psychology, commodities and global assets from 1997 till date for local and international publications like the Business Standard (India), The Economic Times (India), E-Mecklai (India), Yahoo Business, Economistul (Romania), Ziarul Financiar (Romania), Bucharest Daily News (Romania), Business Week (Romania), Technically Speaking (MTA Newsletter USA), Euro Physics letters (France) etc.

Mukul is also an active trainer and speaker. He has conducted training programs for Thomson Reuters (Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Albania), Oil and Gas Forum Romania, Bombay Stock Exchange, SIBIU Derivatives Exchange, Bucharest Stock Exchange, Academy of Economic Studies. Orpheus CAPITALS covering India, CEE region and global assets including Metals, Energy, Alternative Energy, Agro Commodities, Bonds, Interest rates and Elf’s across multiple time frames for investing and trading. Orpheus research reports are published internationally on Reuters, Thompson, Yahoo Finance and Business Standard India.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - USA


Orpheus turns 5 today

We thank all our readers and members for great 5 years. We enjoyed every bit of it and are still enjoying.
Orpheus Team


Orpheus Newsletter (Time Triads) - 05 Sep 2010

The Information Pattern

Information like everything else in nature is mathematically patterned. Understanding the pattern can help us make much more sense of information.

Coming to look at it, we don’t trade or invest in assets but their intrinsic information. It is this information that gives them value. The relationship is considered linear between information and value, the higher the quality of the information, higher the perceived value in the assets and vice versa. For example, the value of Oil lies in the information code bits in it. Oil is going to get over, demand will overshoot supply, future is inflationary are some of the information bits that drive the price of Oil. A similar information code also works for Gold and other assets. It’s like DNA with a different code, but similar double helix structure.

However, that’s not how the society knows information. The masses know information as something that they read in the newspaper, something that they see on TV, or read on the web. It’s all about making sense of this clutter. The very fact that humans think there is a certain disorder in the information that they assume the confusion that comes with news. If the information works for us, great, If it does not we accept it. We have learned to have fewer expectations from information.

Read more…

TIME TRIADS Features

The Information Pattern

Common Sense Society

The Fat Tail

Time Fractals – SSRN top 10 (1997-2010)

Smith, Pareto and the divergence debate

Redefining Intermarket Analysis

Top underperformer Spain wins

How did the worst performer Spain reach so far?

Did behavioral finance get it wrong?

Ranking Social Mood

Long football, short baseball

The failed state

The excitement cycles

Cycles of Entrepreneurship

TIME FRACTALS is No 1. in the SSRN download list for 60 days

Revisiting Time Triads

Dow Time Oscillator (updated)

Market Quotes

Share


Orpheus heads to India


Orpheus heads to Mumbai for Bombay Stock Exchange Training.

BSE Training Institute

Launches a Two Day Programme on

“Investing with Time and Performance Cycles”
(The cyclicality of markets can be quantified. This can change the investing process.)

Date: 27 and 28 August 2010, Friday and Saturday

Timing: 9.30 am to 5.30 pm

Programme Aim: The aim of the program is to illustrate the mathematical and patterned nature of ‘Time’ and how it can be used to understand asset performance, the big picture and initiate new investment approaches.

The Time Cycle: Market Cyclicality, History of Time Cycles Research, Exponentially in Nature Fractals, Exponentiality in Time, Time Triads, Time Fractals, Cycles of Gold, Interest Rate, Inflation, Kondratieff Wave – The missing link, Forecasts – Oil, Global Outlook, Indian markets from a Time Cycle perspective, Intermarket Cycles.

Performance Cycles: Price divergence between prices, sectors, regions, assets is cyclical and quantifiable, Intermarket analysis, behavioral finance, Socionomics, Black Swan Randomness, Sam Stovall Sector Rotation, Robert Arnott – growth and value divergence, Profiting from price divergence and Outlook and cases.

Who can attend?

Derivatives dealers, Stock brokers, High Net Worth Investors, Custodians, Mutual Funds, Portfolio Managers, Insurance Companies, Banks, Financial Institutions, Corporates, Capital Market Researchers, Forex Traders, Commodity Traders, Energy and Commodity Analysts, Hedge Funds and Management students.

Orpheus Capitals, Global Alternative Research Company

Orpheus Capitals is listed with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent researcher. The research startup is headed by Market Technicians from Market Technicians Association, New York. The research outfit publishes 300 research reports internationally on Reuters and Thomson platforms monthly. The coverage includes global equity, metals, forex, agro, energy, bonds and green assets. The forecasts cover asset classes across time frames. Orpheus is the only company in India, C&E Europe to do intraday research on indices, futures and various other assets.

Speaker Profile: Mukul Pal

Mukul Pal, Co-Founder, Orpheus Capitals is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance. Orpheus Research is registered with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent research company.

He is a member of the Market Technicians association. He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005.  He is also an authorized investment consultant by the CNVM (Romanian Capital Market Regulator).

Mukul has actively researched on ‘Time’ and has written some seminal paper on the mathematical hierarchy of time. His first paper on performance cycles was published in the Kyoto Economics Journal in Mar 2009. Recently his paper on Time Fractals was accepted by the ERN History of Economics Journal and Capital Markets Market Microstructure eJournal (SSRN Economics Research Network).

Time Fractals attempt to explain the exponentiality in nature and markets. The subject has wide application even outside capital markets. He has written extensively on derivatives markets, sentiment indicators, alternative research, investment psychology, commodities and global assets from 1997 till date for local and international publications like the Business Standard (India), The Economic Times (India), E-Mecklai (India), Yahoo Business, Economistul (Romania), Ziarul Financiar (Romania), Bucharest Daily News (Romania), Business Week (Romania), Technically Speaking (MTA Newsletter USA), Euro Physics letters (France) etc.

Mukul is also an active trainer and speaker. He has conducted training programs for Thomson Reuters (Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Albania), Oil and Gas Forum Romania, Bombay Stock Exchange, SIBIU Derivatives Exchange, Bucharest Stock Exchange, Academy of Economic Studies. Orpheus CAPITALS covering India, CEE region and global assets including Metals, Energy, Alternative Energy, Agro Commodities, Bonds, Interest rates and Elf’s across multiple time frames for investing and trading. Orpheus research reports are published internationally on Reuters, Thompson, Yahoo Finance and Business Standard India.

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - USA

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