Archive for the ‘The Orpheus Newsletter’ category

Interview

Cred că viața trecută am fost un transilvănean

When I first met him, I had the feeling that a movie star was in front of me. He looks like a movie star, but he thinks like a visionary. He comes from India, the largest democracy in the world, a country with an incredible past, and a bright future; a land of choices, a country with as many Gods as you can count, and a wonderful cuisine. Not to mention the incredible philosophical, religious, and cultural traditions and also the amazing scientific discoveries. That’s why it was not very clear to me, at the beginning, what he was doing here, in Romania, in Cluj. After a while, I understood.

Besides learning Romanian, Mukul Pal is doing a great work. He is the founder of Orpheus Capitals, a company that provides business solutions, and has conferences all over the world. He can choose to live in any city in the world, but he prefers to consider himself “un transilvănean”. He will tell us why.

M.G.: Who is Mukul Pal?

Mukul Pal: A signature of TIME. Like anything else that ever lived or will live. Or anything else that will die or decay. I always believed that this signature, which we are, is about a (not THE) fire is us. We have a choice to let it burn fast, burn slow, extinguish, reignite, create new flames or just let it flow. We all create something, even if we use the flame to destroy. I am doing my bit of creation and destruction, creating new ideas, while disrupting some old ones.

M.G.: From Delhi to Cluj is a very long way… What made you choose Cluj-Napoca?

Mukul Pal: Cluj; I could not even pronounce it. Now I can. Cluj happened to me. Was it love at first sight? Maybe. What matter’s is that the love is going strong. I love the city and it loves me back. It’s strange how this Pygmalion effect panned out. I came with no expectations, dreamt of building a business, creating an idea. Cluj helped me think, nurture, groom, test, fail, reinvent and evolve. It was like a sapling in a nursery. You incubate it and then you take it to the world and it blossoms everywhere. Many things can’t be explained. Loving a city is a strange emotion, the more you resist it, the more it grips you. How else can you explain love despite all odds? Maybe it’s what you put in that comes back to you. I came here searching for something, a part of what I found is still with me, as a creation that accompanied my journey and ofcourse great memories, lifelong friendships, goodwill which keeps pushing and taking me ahead.

M.G.: Mukul, tell us more about your Romania.

Mukul Pal: My Romania is the land of good people, with good heart, a non-corrupted soul that knows that’s it about being human first. This is not only because there is enough for everybody, but because corruption of character did not reach Romania yet. Maybe it’s not that rampant. I think this intrinsic character is what makes it like a cohesive village. My Romania is the land of self-sustainability, where there can never be a food crisis. There could be another round of hyperinflation, because like everyone else, My Romania sometime believes that the grass is greener outside. But it’s the opposite. The power is inside not outside. Take any powerful nation, the strength comes from innovation inside not from borrowing innovation, strength comes from conservation rather than consumption. So My Romania is capable of virtue, as it has all it needs to shine. But cyclically values prevail over virtues and every nation gets an opportunity to build back a nation back to greatness.

Another of my projects which I am working with a close friend is called “it’s neither mine, nor yours”. The project starts as a book to explain the virtuosity that we should show with common assets. My Romania does not belong to you or to me; it belongs to both of us. Just like My India, is not just mine, it’s yours too. The time we start thinking of the world as a common asset, we can avoid the tragedy linked with commons. Not that the virtuous utopia is normal, but that virtue fights relentlessly with viciousness of the economic or moral life. So sooner or later despite the stronger bad, the weaker good persists, prevails and sustains moral growth, which drives the economic and political fiber of a great nation. My Romania and My India have everything they need to become great nations.

M.G.: At one moment you said that “Cred că viata trecută am fost un transilvănean”. How come?

Mukul Pal: Cause and explanation has come under attack more now than ever. Like many big names in the past like Joseph Schumpeter, Samuel Benner, Vilfredo Pareto, Herbert Simon, Karl Lamprecht and many more my work explains mathematically how it’s not just above cause and explanation but an order. Though this is more about my scientific work for the current historical times and systems, metaphysically speaking why the order of one life could not continue from a previous life, assuming a previous life existed? This is why I assumed that my being here could have been linked to some previous life order. Talking about previous life I want to give myself more thinking space, the old Transylvania at 100,000 square kilometer could have done just that.

M.G.: What is Orpheus Capitals and why this company is so important for business solutions area?

Mukul Pal: Orpheus Capitals is based out of Cluj. The company is built on an idea that geometry, patterns, order and structure that we see in nature are really not in nature but in the underlying time on which natural systems grow and decay. And since understanding TIME can be only done through data, data has a commonality, a universal character. We call this ‘Data Universality’ at Orpheus. Simply putting this means, a set of data from a natural system or variable can tell you everything about the future growth and evolution of the natural system or variable.

M.G.: You were invited to conferences, all over the world, from Delhi to Dubai, San Francisco, Chicago or Budapest. You were also invited at the famous TEDxCluj conferences. How is the public interacting with your ideas?

Mukul Pal: Today’s audience is open to new ideas. The society is consuming information like other economic goods. Moreover the society is in a state of flux as new ideas replace old ideas. We are in experimenting times and even the avant-garde is appreciated and criticized. It takes very little for an idea to traverse the globe today. We have had a good reception to our ideas and this is why these invitations, we have not reached to the criticism stage yet, as we just started talking about our idea and sharing it. The idea is disruptive, and disruptive inventions, leading to innovations, leading to a business use usually takes some time. The best part is that because our idea is scalable we have a cross industry usage. We are already implementing these usages in real cases. This also makes it easier for us to illustrate the workability of the idea. We are positive going ahead that we will get more traction and global acceptability.

M.G.: You just published a book, Risk Management Indices. Tell us something about it.

Mukul Pal: Indexing in this case is a financial term, which refers to as a benchmark. Markets of all goods need benchmarks to follow, as they are expected to be superior, popular, and well-constructed to represent the universe. There are few original indexing innovations over the last 150 years. Most indexing innovations have come from United States of America. The reason there are a few indexing innovations is because it’s hard to better the existing innovations and improve the popular benchmarks. Based on our data universality approach, we have been able to improve and enhance the current global financial indexing innovations. The book is planned for a year end release and will be available to purchase on Amazon.

M.G.: Are there any similarities between Indians and Romanians?

Mukul Pal: Yes, generally speaking family is an important part in both cultures. Both of the cultures I find have an intrinsic simplicity and God fearing nature. Both of them i.e. Indian cities and Romanian cities have an English speaking youth. The level of technology skill is also comparable, the reason a lot of overlapping technology businesses. Both places I found the youth to be very forward thinking, up to date and support a risk taking spirit.

M.G.: People often say that “what doesn’t kill us makes us stronger”, or that “things happen the way they are supposed to”. What do you think? Is there a Destiny, out there, for every one of us, or we are our own destiny creators?

Mukul Pal: Darwin said, “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.” And adapting is about overcoming what can kill you. Many times what can kill us lies within us, so it’s not just the war outside but the war inside. Mastering the mind is a very powerful way to survive. As I said there is a structure to everything natural, so I believe things are happening as they should, what we need to do as individuals to adapt to the changing times. If in the process we can understand ourselves and master the mind, we create our own destinies.

M.G.: If you could change one thing in your life, what would you change?

Mukul Pal: My life has been a relatively extreme expression till now. I could not have been happy if I would not have lived it, the way I did. I think I was lucky. I think I will never know if I would like to change anything or re-live it. I guess my opinion does not matter. But it’s good to feel that you matter, so I will make myself feel important revisiting this question after another 40 years, hopefully nearing another round of joyful expression, meaningful! Only time will tell.

M.G.: Where do you see yourself in 10 years? Is Romania on the list?

Mukul Pal: Even if we know a lot about TIME structures and order, societies understanding of nature will always be empirical, limited, the rationality like Herbert Simon said is bounded. It’s hard to predict tomorrow. And sometimes your friends know more about you than you do about yourself. With all the forecasting I have done, I appreciate and acknowledge uncertainty. India gave me a personality, Romania gave me a platform to think and it seems USA would give us the breakthrough. So I guess one of them will know, what will happen to my journey tomorrow.

Thank you, Mukul.
Multumesc frumos, M.G.


Orpheus @ Ahmedabad

” The New Passive ”  - 20 Oct 2013

The investment business is primarily about beating a sector benchmark, or peer funds, or simply delivering more than a composite index. Though 90% of the money managers fail to consistently beat the benchmark, delivering more than the benchmark is considered as a filter which separates the outperformers from the rest. While the market community is focused on this outperformance, little research has been done on financial innovation which recreates, redefines, recalculate the benchmark (composite index) itself, to enhance alpha, reduce risk and extend the passive indexing domain. Very few have attempted this feat like S&P Dow Jones Indices, Russell and Fundamental index, the innovators end up becoming the new market itself. The presentation will talk about the new age global indexing techniques and index enhancing smart beta approaches and how Indian investors and money managers can utilize the new passive for diversification and risk management across Indian asset classes.

ATMA

Meeting Schedule:

09:45 AM - 10:00 AM : Registrations Open
10:15 AM - 11:15 PM : Educational session 1
11:15 AM - 11:45 AM : Networking Tea
11:45 PM - 13:00 PM : Educational session 2

Venue:

Ahmedabad Management Association ATIRA Campus,
Dr. Vikram Sarabhai Marg,
IIM-A Road,
Vastrapur,
Ahmedabad - 380015

Register for the event

151413121110987654321


Orpheus @ Vienna

vienna

Fusion Analysis: Combining Fundamental, Quantitative and Technical Analysis

The MTA is excited to announce a collaboration with Raiffeisen Bank International to present the MTA Annual Meeting – a full day technical analysis educational seminar on November 15th, 2013.  The presentations will be focused around the concept of combined analytical models, or what has been called “Fusion Analysis.”

Delegates will have a chance to hear from leading investment professionals on the intersections of quantitative, fundamental, macro-economic and technical disciplines. As the demands on investment professionals increase, new tools for asset allocation, position sizing, idea generation (specifically relating to emerging markets), sector rotation and a consultative portfolio management strategy are paramount.

This is a great opportunity to build relationships among the Toronto investment community and takeaway practical strategies for your investment practice.

Agenda

8:00 AM – Registration and Breakfast

9:00 AM – Opening Remarks

9:15 AM – Session #1: Global Macro Outlook for European Markets with Bernd MaurerRobert Gillingerand Valentin Hofstatter

In this session each of our three panelists will present their investment approach and how they combine fundamental, technical and quantitative inputs to their overarching strategy. The panelists will address sectors and individual stocks that present attractive opportunities through the end of 2013 and beyond.

10:45 AM – Networking Break

11:15 AM – Session #2 with Robert SchittlerBrian Whitmer, and Andrew Simpson-Parker

Elliott Wave Utility: Long-term macro to daily trading strategies.

12:30 AM – MTA Presentation: Global Growth of Technical Analysis with Tyler Wood

The speaker will present on a variety of topics pertaining to the MTA, such as the CMT Program, Body of Knowledge, and reliance on technical analysis.

1:00 PM – Lunch Session and Professional Networking Opportunity

1:30 PM – Session #4: Behavioral Finance: Understanding Crowd Psychology for Risk and Return:with Patrick OberhaensliMukul PalRon William, & Alexander Spiroglou

3:30 PM – Networking Break

3:45 PM – Market Forecast Panel and General Q&A

5:00 PM – Professional Networking and Cocktail Reception


Orpheus @ Princeton-UChicago

Speakers and Panelists

The following speakers are confirmed to date for the Princeton – UChicago Fall 2013 Quant Trading Conference.  Check back often for continued speaker updates!

Doug Adams
CEO
TransMarket Group

Rajib Ranjan Borah
Director & co-founder
iRageCapital

Jim Cone
Senior Trading Team Leader FX & FI
Sun Trading LLC

Armando Gonzalez
President & CEO
Ravenpack

Ilya Gorelick
CEO
Deltix

Andrew Killion
CEO
Akuna Capital

Sebastiaan Koeling
Managing Director
Optiver

Grace Lo
Research Manager & Member of the Investment Committee
Campbell and Company

Rob Lopez
High-Frequency Trader
KCG

Elliot Lorenz
Trader
Capital Markets

Carl Mahler
Director of Algorithmic Trading
Gelber Group

Enrico Malverti
Senior Quantitative Analyst
MC Capital Ltd

Scott Martindale
Senior Vice President
Sabrient Systems

Mukul Pal
Founder
Orpheus CAPITALS

Daniel Penley
Director of Algorithmic Trading & Execution
Spot Trading

David Pettey
Associate Director
SIG

Emory Redd
Managing Director
Schenley Park Advisors

Derek Wang
CEO
K2 Capital Management LP

Francis Wenzel
CEO & co-founder
TickSmith Corp.


Orpheus @ Delhi

The Active Money Management System: 22nd ATMA Delhi Meeting. The educational meeting will focus on:

•  How active money management style can adopt a new look as compared to passive investing.
•  Approach to build a new active system.
•  Indian Equity Market based active money management systems.


ATMA

Register for the event



MTA Budapest Conference


Killing the Insider

st-george-killing-the-dragon-1507

Now with SAC Capital Advisors, a multi-billion dollar hedge fund under attack and potentially ready to shut shop, one wonders what is getting destroyed or created in this process? Who should be excited? Who should feel distraught?

Is it destruction? Rajat Gupta’s wiki page labels him as a corporate criminal before talking about his philanthropist activities. Bad is stronger than good (Nov 1, 2012). Corporate criminal evokes a stronger context than philanthropy. Markets are ruthless. Steven A Cohen’s wiki page does not indicate him as a criminal of insider trading yet. George Zimmerman on the other hand has no wiki page and has been acquitted him from second degree murder. On the face of it, it seems that financial crime is worse than a probable homicide. But it’s the society which has decided to punish the industry and its poster boys. And since negative mood does not know balance, the forces tend to exaggerate and will continue to have a “jail the bankers” approach.

What are we creating? Well because markets are alive, the inefficient is pushed aside and efficient take its place till the cycle repeats. Who survives? The underdog, the underperformer, the inactive, the small size, the big size is cut down either by the society (antitrust) or proactively by the entity itself (downsizing). A girl complained at school about a mischief done by the boys. There were many boys. The girl could remember the few who were leading the mischief. Not everyone from the group came to attention and hence escaped the punishment; availability bias. Society always creates opportunities for the underdog even if he is a part of the same industry under attack, a level playing field for David against Goliath.

To read the complete article visit Business Standard or subscribe to the Time Triads Newsletter

Mukul Pal, is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance and a member of the reputed Market Technicians Association (MTA). He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock  Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is the President of the MTA Central and Eastern European Chapter.


Toronto Chapter: The New TSX60

The investment business is primarily about beating a sector benchmark, or peer funds, or simply delivering more than a composite index. Though 90% of the money managers fail to consistently beat the benchmark, delivering more than the benchmark is considered as a filter which separates the outperformers from the rest. While the market community is focused on this outperformance, little research has been done on financial innovation which recreates, redefines, recalculate the benchmark (composite index) itself, to make a new benchmark. Very few have attempted this feat like S&P Dow Jones Indices, Russell and Fundamental index, the innovators end up becoming the new market itself.


MTA Symposium (New York)

The 2013 Annual Symposium took place from April 4th through April 5th at the Sentry Centers in New York City. It was most certainly one of the most entertaining and educational two-day events we participated in through all of the financial industry! The Annual Symposium was an exciting opportunity to gain knowledge from respected technicians and pioneers of the market investment industry. The Symposium Committee had put together a powerful agenda of core content that bridged theory into practice while anchoring the two-day event to a current market view.


 


Interview (Technically Speaking)

 

 

 

Download the latest Technically Speaking, March2013