Archive for the ‘Accuracy Metals’ category

Waves.gold - Complex corrective completing

Anticipated

Happened

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published weekly. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

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Waves.Gold - RSI momentum

This week we are revisiting RSI momentum, along with averages. Indicators on momentum is an attempt to build trade setups. We have a trade signal when RSI line crosses the shortest average and a confirmation of the move when the shortest average crosses the longest one.

This is a Constance Brown technique, which she has explained in her book ‘Technical Analysis for trading professionals’. While studying this setup we also keep in mind the position of RSI. In a bull market the RSI should not break below 40 levels and oscillate till 80 or above. In a bear market the indicator should break the 40 support, move till 25-35 and not move above the resistance at 55-65 levels.

Brown also insists on the time frame used for plotting price. A 3 day price chart plotted with a 14 period RSI should give important clues about the next move in the market. Experimenting with different averages on the RSI should increase the confidence of the trader and provide him a thorough opinion on the market.

Alpha.metals has been talking about an impending outperforming case on silver against gold. RSI and most momentum indicators are known to lead prices (they are built to lead). Silver RSI intermediate momentum has already broken down on 40 supports. This does not post an encouraging picture for gold supports at 1,000. The gold minor multi day view also suggests that RSI momentum might have got into bearish zone and bounce backs will be shallow.

Now that Bloomberg made Palladium officially the best metal, our negative case on Platinum and Palladium stands sentimentally valid. If it is news, bullish percentage is high. If bullish percentage is high, it is time to sell. We have carried anticipated and happened cases in the report. Next week is key for our bearish case on Gold. Sit tight.

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WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

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Waves.Gold - Anticipated and happened

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL

ORPHEUS STORE

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


WAVES.GOLD - Gold 1200 is here

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

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WAVES.GOLD - PRICES ARE CONTINUING THE CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE UP

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

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SILVER. ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED

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WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

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Long Gold, Short Dow

For us at Orpheus, HISTORY is mathematical, this is why ECONOHISTORY for us is a quantifiable study of pair performance. Pairs can be between Nikkei- BVSP, Dow Industrial - Dow Transports, Gold-OIL or between any two economic time series.

Performance cyclicality was highlighted first time in a recent research paper published at the Kyoto University journal called the ‘The BRICS model from a Japanese perspective’, Nistor, Pal. The paper illustrated performance cycles between Nikkei and the other BRIC countries.

Performance cycles work because assets in a pair underperform and outperform with a cyclical periodicity. The illustrated pair Gold-DOW has seen GOLD underperforming DOW Industrials since MAR 2009 (Fig.1). The larger performance cycle also seems to be turning up in a favor of Gold. This could mean that either DOW should underperform and fall against Gold, Gold should rise or outperform DOW or Gold should fall but less compared to Dow.

The consistent retest of 900 is encouraging for GOLD bulls and with our UP BUT TOPPING view on global equity including DOW, we will not be surprised if GOLD spikes higher next week. The overall view on GOLD still remains in a counter trend up, but above 900 we can’t remain negative on GOLD. There are some over reactive momentum signals also on the intermediate time frame (SLIDE 3).

This is what we said in our WAVES.GOLD report on 10 APR. The GOLD Q2 high.

“Our ‘UP BUT TOPPING’ view witnessed GOLD fall from near 980 levels to the current 870 levels. Orpheus time oscillators consider the Q2 top of GOLD to be in. Any push up now should restrict near 900 levels.”

Now that Gold has pushed up above 900 and GOLD-DOW performance cycles are pointing higher. We would like to see a clear turn back below 900 to be negative. The overall industrial metals case seems to be topping, another reason for us to believe short equity, long Gold pair might be at least worth a perspective watch the week ahead.

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA, .NSTL

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM


ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.


GOLD'S LAST LEG DOWN

When you say ‘FIRST’ or ‘LAST’, you are already attaching 100% probability to an action. Such high probability forecasts are generally prone to error because even if ‘TIME FRACTALS’ and ‘PRICE FRACTALS’ were perfect, the human ability to see patterns and form is not.

Above this market’s have an ability to surprise or markets always have another top and another bottom. This is why calling a last leg is risky. There is one aspect, which keeps us a bit hedged and that is the degree. There are various trend degree’s in market, a minor, an intermediate and primary. The ongoing action in GOLD is nearly 12 month old, making it a primary leg down. The overall formation still seems incomplete and indicates that the move up is indeed a corrective preferred X.

So, if the GOLD 30 year cycle is still ongoing till 2015, and if the relative performance of Gold against global assets is any indication of strength, any fall from here should be the last and of intermediate degree for GOLD till 2015.

The TIME CYCLE illustrated here also suggests that momentum is overstretched and Gold is indeed exhausting at current levels rather than getting ready to move higher. India spot gold also seems topping. The latest WAVES.GOLD carries ANTICIPATED and HAPPENED cases on PLATINUM, SILVER, STEEL, COPPER and ALCOA, which continues to hold up against all negativity.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

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GOLD, RUPEE N STEEL

The last time we covered steel was 3 months back on 22 OCT 2008 in ‘What Happened to Steel?’. It was then we talked about the connection of steel with silver. This is what we said.

“A rise on silver against gold could help industrial metals like steel. Based on intermarket pairs, we suggest a bottoming on silver and on steel. And the Oct 2008 low in equities should see some interest in steel stocks. As a rising stock market helps steel prices more than gold. Silver prices have also reached all time historical oversold zones of a decade”.

From 4 Dec when we gave the Long Silver - Short Gold update, Silver has outperformed gold by 7%. This in barely 40 days translates to a 54% annualized spot return. Even steel stock prices e.g. TISCO bottomed five days after our 22 Oct call on bottoming steel. The prices are still above respective lows. Equity is known to outperform it’s underlying commodity and this is one reason we will not be surprised if TISCO takes the lead up (SLIDE 1, 2). The illustrated formation is the inverted TISCO price. The formation seems ready for a reversal. Overreactive momentum also confirms our view of an impending turn around.

Other base metals like Aluminum and related equity majors are also in news. ALCOA’s bad results are all over. But the current prices after all the negative news are still above ALCOA’s price from 24 Dec when we said ‘Alcoa is a screaming BUY’ (SLIDE 5). One should remember, it’s easy screaming SELL after prices collapse 88% from the top. This is also similar to the Zinc story, which the world might consider over. We have illustrated ZINC momentum, which is challenging and leading a breakout (SLIDE 11).

About GOLD…The ‘UP BUT TOPPING’ recommendation panned out as expected. We have carried out the Anticipated and Happened scenarios (SLIDE 6,7). A break below 800 should start the anticipated negativity for GOLD back to 700 and potentially down till 560. The Indian spot (SLIDE 9) also failed back from near historical highs. And what may look like an expanding diagonal on INDIAN gold futures is nothing but falling international gold prices denominated in the Indian Rupee creating the illusion that Indian Gold prices behave differently than international gold (SLIDE 8). The last bout of strengthening on Dollar also might push gold back into our anticipated Q1 2009 lows.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA, .NSTL

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FOOL'S GOLD - II

The last time we covered GOLD was when it was ranging between dollar 920-950 levels (FOOL’S GOLD). Well we have had a financial crisis and so much activity since then. But the crisis commodity is still sub 900. And as anticipated it did push lower back to sub 800 levels till 730. What happened? Why though the world talked about GOLD, the final hedge, the capitulations and the panic, there were historical volatilities, the destruction of real money, implosion of capitalism, the crisis commodity just did not move up? Why is it sleeping? This is another question which we may not understand.

Though we all have an opinion, it’s the time forecast which traps most of us. Gold is forever, but when to BUY is the only question that matters. 21 Apr 2008 was not a good time to be in Gold and it’s been six months since we said that, saving you the heartless wait and prayers of rises and hope that the crisis would push up gold. But Gold remains there, stay put, doing its own thing, keeping us on tenterhooks.

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