Archive for the ‘Accuracy Energy’ category

WAVES.OIL - Intermediate reversal is here

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WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

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WAVES.OIL - HEATING OIL. FUTURES. POTENTIAL ENDING DIAGONAL

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM
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WAVES.OIL - BRT. THE SUBMINOR CORRECTION SHOULD END SOON

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM
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OIL. WTM. ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED

Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL

ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


OIL READY TO REVERSE

The December low we highlighted in WAVES.OIL continues to hold. The price movement was clock work. A 1 up, followed by 2 wave down and now the 3 wave up. (ANTICIPATED and HAPPENED – SLIDE 2). The price structure illustrated on the right is the ongoing 3 up leg, which seems ready to push back up to 50 and higher.

50 is a psychological level and a push back up to 50 is no short of an intermediate reversal in OIL prices. A move up on OIL could push OIL up in higher territory near 70. This should be good news for OIL equity and commodity bulls.

We have other conventional patterns validating our case. There are many potential Head and Shoulder and potential double bottom, which suggest a turn around. The Primary RSI momentum support at RSI 40 on BRT, XLE and CVX also confirm the positive view. We have also illustrated the WTM momentum, which is emerging out of oversold territory.

The only drag in the OIL complex seems to be equity related to commodity. Stock like Reliance (Indian Energy Major) have still overlapping formations, which don’t look too encouraging for a sustained turn around yet.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL

ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


EXXON AND THE FOOL'S CROWN

We all get it wrong, sometime. But when you say ‘Exxon Mobil: A Great Big Buy’ on JUN 3 when the stock price is at dollar 88 near all time historical high at 93, you must be neck deep in Oil data and rig reports, unaware of everything else. Everything linked with OIL prices, linked with mass psychology extremes, linked with risk management etc. This is not just the Business Week star analyst GENE MARCIAL who said this, but we had many other star analysts there from Lehman, S&P Research (Strong BUY) and even Motley fool, which predicted stunning Q2 earnings for Exxon on July 30. Prices fell 41% from the top.

Well! we repeat, everybody gets it wrong, sometime. But a STRONG BUY crown is hard to throw once you have worn it at an all time top. Readers will remember you. And by the way, we at Orpheus got it right on EXXON, CHEVRON, XLE, BRENT and the OIL complex. We were cautious from dollar 125-135 OIL, but then we rather be cautious than wear the FOOL’s CROWN, which is really scary and tough to avoid sometimes. We are sorry guys, it’s a fool’s game, better luck next time. Try looking at stupid charts, fractals, sentiment, cycles, intermarket and exponential curve in statistics, it might help. THE OIL ROCKET written on MAY 2008 found us alone, thankfully. And we were negative on CHEVRON and EXXON from near dollar 80 levels on both WAVES.GLOBAL and WAVES.OIL. We have carried both the stocks every issue, carrying anticipated and happened cases. On 10 May 2008 we said, “OIL is headed to sub 100 and potentially lower till 70 and our research IMPULSE shows more of a PUT than a CALL”. Look at your mailbox you definitely would have a mail from your broker, giving you NYMEX BRT CALL OPTION premium rates, back then. There were many reasons we could see this coming apart from common rare sense and understanding that rockets are linked with euphoria and crash down. We mentioned above Oil vs. Gold Intermarket relationship, which was highlighting an impending underperformance on OIL compared to Gold (SLIDE 5). This happened.

Now let’s look at some alternative, non conventional research observations. First, the intermarket leadership of equity vs. it’s underlying commodity clearly suggested that XLE, CHV and XOM were not rising up with OIL. The classic extension of CHARLES DOW’s non confirmation rule in the DOW THEORY of 1884. Exxon was stagnant from July 2007 unlike OIL, which was excited. Second. Prices reached previous MINOR 4 waves resistances (SLIDE2) and the impulse was down and the corrective up. Third. Now prices have broken primary channel lows (SLIDE 11) on BRENT and the fall does not seem over yet. We could indeed push till dollar 60 and potentially lower till (4 circle primary at 50 – low probability scenario now). Fourth, We have 0.618 FIB levels met on few components of the OIL complex. This suggests some short term pause on XLE. But sub 45 we continue to look down till 34.

On the last note, NATGAS another key ENERGY component is back to where AMARANTH left it with 6 billion dollars of losses and a bankruptcy. Prices are back at a four year low. This is a place where there is no euphoria, not much news, no strong BUYS, a classic no noise accumulation signal. We will keep you posted when it turns to a BUY.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL

ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


The OIL rocket

Nothing can rise exponentially, even if it’s OIL. The asset’s exponential rise is more an indication of an ending trend and not vice versa.

We don’t have any chilly warning about OIL heading to dollar 200, like many in OPEC believe. Does OPEC really know? The axiom linked with 40 dollar plus OIL, as harbinger of recession has been long trashed and now not only we are waiting for recession but also for dollar 200 OIL. It all seems a bit strange to us.

OIL moved up 3 times from the 40 dollar mark and DOW is still at 13,000, just 7% lower than historical top. So either the other best indicator for recession that is S&P500 and DOW Jones have stopped working or econostats have blinded us.

For a start we have some common sense rules, which say rockets come down to earth and satellites remain in the sky. The way OIL is behaving makes it either a rocket potentially getting ready to become a satellite or this all is an illusion. OIL can never become a satellite, no asset can. And the almost ninety degree inclination to new highs is destined to collapse. And what will collapse along with this is the dream of OIL riches.

It’s how you look at it. Bloomberg Markets looked at it as the END of OIL era and a few Wall Street brokers looked at is a great time to solicit mass mailing lists for OIL CALL options. Well we don’t subscribe to the OIL end era yet, but if the best broker suggests buying CALLS with such confidence, we definitely don’t know something he knows or something everybody knows. But that’s good, if we don’t know, what everybody knows. Because if everybody knows something it’s already discounted and the truth is already out there that OIL is TOPPING.

Of course the reason of the fall, when it happens will be like this…”Winters were cold so OIL rose and summers are hotter so OIL is falling”. When OIL falls in winters, which it did from 2000 to 2002 and later in 2006 to 2007, the winters were warm. For us OIL is more than a climate barometer. It’s like all other assets, which are connected with 0.5, 4, 11, 30, and 90 year cycles. And all these time cycles can explain cycles of inflation, deflation, disinflation, food, gold, equity, recurring geopolitical crisis, interest rates and also how we should handle a portfolio within the year. It also tells us about what is going to happen to OIL in 2012. We will be discussing this next time when we talk about asset cycles in 2012.

At this stage what we can see is a sentiment euphoria which is hard to sustain. The five legged fractal structure both starting 1999 till 2008 and the smaller five legged sub structure starting in 2007 seems complete. And holding one’s impulses to ride on this rocket seems reasonable to us. FIB and CHANNEL targets lie at current levels. We don’t see OIL above $ 125 at this stage and our research IMPULSE (we are humans too) shows more of a PUT than a CALL.

What will happen can also be explained with another magical previous 4 rule. Price impulse moves in a five wave structure. And you can label them like a school exercise of counting 1 up, 2 down, 3 up, 4 down and 5 up. Now this exercise can be done on a large (multi year) time frame and a multi day time frame. This is what we keep mentioning as mass psychology fractals impulsing again and again at all degrees. It’s the magic human nature plays with precision.

After every impulse the markets take a pause and fall in three wave structure (a down – b up – c down) and then the impulse starts again in an unending process. That is why we say that world may never come to end, it’s just that some time the volatility of relentless market action becomes too much for a society looking one way. This always happens, like the subprime mess and the credit crisis. We all look up to OIL now and not NAT GAS, which is the next multi year outperformer. We love to see rockets and ride them, other things don’t excite us.

So whenever an impulse (five legs) takes a pause, they fall to the previous 4 wave. This is a much witnessed event in fractals. Previous 4 wave supports are also mentioned as the last supports standing. Prices should not fall below the previous 4 wave or rise above the previous 4, if the trend has to continue. Of course this is a guideline, but this appears more time than coincidence.

You can see this everywhere, BSE OIL, BSECG, BSE BANK, BSEAUTO, SENSEX, NIFTY and CNXIT (Indian Sector Indices). They are all full of previous 4 wave retests. OIL when it turns down could fall to first a previous 4 wave support at dollar 90. And if it indeed breaks that, we can be in for sub dollar 70 levels. And this we are talking about the next few months. We can be wrong. But not like the poor chicken, an anecdote quoted by the late A J Frost, Market Guru.

The chicken used to run at the presence of the man, but man’s appearance on the scene was linked with corn. This happened 999 times, till the Chicken went to thank the man and had his neck sliced. Though anatomy proves that we are more like sheep and herd, we indeed might be chickens when it comes to cause and event linkage. We are miserable here and believe summers and winters drive the Oil rocket. Indeed a poetic tragedy.

 

ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA