Archive for the ‘Reader’s contributions’ category

Member's post - Nifty India Hourly




Member's post - What happened to SUGAR?

Related articles - The Sugar Decay
ALPHA Agro - Short Sugar, Long Corn

Tejas Shah



Member's post - India

Ashish Kyal

Nifty hourly – Wave v of Minuette degree is ready for next round of assault in the skyward direction
1st scenario – If wave v is equal to wave i then Nifty will kiss the tag 5210 in the next spurt.
2nd scenario – If wave v get extended (i.e. 161.8% of wave i) then in that case Nifty will kiss the tag 5310 in the next leg itself.

Dharmesh Patel


Member's Post - Inverted head and shoulder Nifty (India)

In the current scenario Nifty is forming an inverse H&S near the support of 200-SMA, which means that if Nifty manages to hold the recent low of 4675 and breaks above the neckline valued at 4930, a rally of 1000 odd points in Nifty from thereon within a quarter or two will not surprise me.

Dharmesh Patel

Member's post - Nifty Vix

Attached is the chart of India Vix which clearly shows that rise in volatility from the bottom around 20 levels till 32 is clearly a five wave advanced. And recent drop in Volatility is the expanded flat a-b-c, which is wave 2 or wave B, which is the current state of the market showing narrow trading range and dull price movement. But the principle of volatility says contraction in volatility is generally followed by the expansion in volatility. Same way once the wave B (or Wave 2) of Vix completes then wave C (or wave 3) should resume which is likely to target 43.


Member's post - DLF (India)


Member's Post - Dollar Index and NR

I have few doubts regarding the Numeric ranking and performance cyclicality of the individual stocks you suggest in your Time Triads. Firstly, should we consider only the stocks forming the index to do the numeric ranking? Secondly, in the case of under performers is it like you keep watching them under performing, wait for a signal/turnaround before suggesting a buy on them? Pair trading I understand but an individual stock can keep underperforming for an indefinite amount of time right?

Also shown below is my Dollar Index count where you can notice that time taken by the wave-c (during 09-10) is far greater than that taken by the waves a and b together. So will the pattern qualify as a legitimate Irregular Flat? Adding it the so called c-wave appears to be corrective if we go strictly by rules.

So I think that corrective mode of dollar (for the H2 2008 rally)  is still on and we are in some sort of expanding environment wherein dollar index would continue to rally towards 87/88 levels in the coming couple of months and then turn weak towards 72 levels subsequently.

Wave structure of Indian rupee also looks deceptive (majority being bearish/depreciation) and I guess 42 would be a good target in the coming months.


Time Cycles, Gann suggest - Peak is here

The recent fall in Sensex carry some very important messages. A very important Gann angle - 45 degrees is decisively broken. As per Gann a break in this angle can result in some serious correction ahead! Trend line from March lows connecting December low broken. RSI moved below 50 levels. Time cycles suggest an ideal time for a peak to occur. Prices will no longer be right translated and is subtly shifting to left translation indicating some serious fall very soon. We mentioned in our previous blog that a move up cannot be ruled out but it was with extreme caution as multiple wave counts of ending diagonal were possible, but it did indicate we were in final of the final waves with a top very soon. Ending diagonal is probably complete. Next 2 days are key to confirm intermediate negativity.

Ashish Kyal
Contributing Member

Member's Post

5181 – A puissant barrier (Papa bear getting ready for a big howl)

The Couple of narrow trading range is suggestive of no real buying pressure near the clog of 5181. Again, yesterday we saw the level of 5181, acting as a strong blockage for the second time in the span of last 30 odd days, which has brought the possibility of double top into the picture. Nifty, which is facing the resistance of both weekly and daily upper Bollinger band, with weekly momentum cycle completely into the grip of the bears is showing signs of sluggishness, near 61.8% retracement level of the entire fall from the top of 6358. Going further, the two consecutive Dojis (the indecisive candles) on daily chart and that too near the strong hurdle of 5181 is again a sign of exhaustion. So this time the break of 20-DSMA (nailed at 5035) and 50-DEMA (nailed at 4950) will trigger the next round of selling, which every bear was dreaming of. In that scenario my alternate wave count (Bearish one) will take precedence over the preferred one. The hourly face of Nifty is also bearish as momentum cycles have already given a fresh sell triggers with reversal patterns being formed on intraday charts.