Archive for the ‘Forecasts’ category

The Vancouver Coffee

 

Buying a Barista or Starbucks coffee and anticipating price trends in coffee never works

Walking on Robson Street buying Tall Vanilla Latte for my sister from Starbucks, I kept wondering how much against the trend I was. I have a short coffee position and with the way Canadians and my sister love coffee, you can imagine my state of mind.

And that’s not all there are about 10 Starbucks here on the same street, two of them across the same crossroads. Wherever I go, whether to a book store or to the beach side, the coffee shops are everywhere. If it’s not Starbucks then it’s Blenz. It’s simply crazy.

The coffee store does not leave me. And I ignorantly and foolishly keep holding on to my Short Coffee trade. Hoping that finally the supports would cave in and…

This article was written for Business Standard

To read this article and for regular updates on behavioral finance, performance cycles and market forecasts subscribe to Orpheus Research Time Triads Update.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

 


The Electricity Exchange

 


I was invited to Prague, to speak at a conference on electricity, along with other regional experts. Until recently, electricity was traded as part of equity, but now Europe, the US and even India have started trading it as a commodity. Technology, utility infrastructure and user sophistication are some of the drivers for the electricity market. Europe is the leading electricity initiative. Today, electric cars earn $1,000 a year as they are plugged back into electricity grids to assist grids as a buffer for peak time. Electricity is traded based on anticipated demand of the quarter ahead (Front Quarter), as 24 hour electricity benchmarks (The German Baseload), etc.

Climate, currency, consumption, catastrophes and Greece drive the business. Henning Gloystein, energy editor at Thomson Reuters, in his presentation, brought out the variables and their likely influences on the sector. How would the sector behave if the euro strengthened or weakened? He highlighted coal as a dark horse in the energy segment. Though the fossil fuel is underplayed in policies, it continues to suggest resilience, especially as energy becomes expensive. Another aspect was the stagnating nature of electricity, which was stuck up in a multi-year trading range…

This article was written for Business Standard

To read this article and for regular updates on behavioral finance subscribe to Orpheus Research Time Triads Update.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


The Indian Sensex Projection

Now that prices have reached our anticipated target at 18,000 and we are heading into event risk or event volatility, it makes sense to review the complex unwinding Sensex price structure. If 18,000 is broken Sensex is just going to slide lower into 13,500. However, this seems very obvious, as a support breaks and prices fall to a new lower support. For a technician the harder task is to comprehend what is not obvious. Putting in other words to understand where the surprise is going to come from is as important as the path of least resistance.

This is why an alternate view is significant just like the Elliott preferred view. So now that we have stated the preferred view. Let’s discuss the eventuality that Sensex 18,000-17,500 holds for a multi week period. In such a situation we have to look at the larger picture. The larger picture for us, as we mentioned prior in ‘The Primary Corrective’ is a cycle degree flat. We think the large B primary is over and now we are in a C down. Remember it’s the C waves that are the fastest and most damaging. There are advantages of a C also, it’s a trending move compared to the complexity and overlapping behavior of A and B waves. Finally we just might get to see some trend, after the complexity and deviousness of B primary wave from Mar 2009…

To read the complete multi year perspective subscribe to Orpheus Research Reports.

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

The Primary Inflation

Relative performance line between the Commodity Index (CRB) and Global Bonds can indicate whether the time ahead is inflationary or not. The primary case (Fig 1.) illustrates that Bonds have outperformed CRB and are now at historical extreme of more than a decade. There has been a relentless rise in global bonds, but that has not been the case with commodities, which have slowed down and stagnated a bit compared to the controlled interest rate situation.

So where does this leave us? Extremes are unsustainable, especially when they become of a multiyear nature.

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Inflation or deflation?

 

Source: Wikipedia, Illustration of the Cineorama balloon simulation, at the 1900 Paris Exposition

Why does a society find it so tough to comprehend whether the future is inflationary or deflationary?

Inflation is when cash loses value and deflation is when cash has all the value. Now what’s losing value? Cash or gold? There is much more money following the same assets. Equities and commodities are where they were few years back. Gold is 30% from the psychological 1000 dollar level for more than 3 years now, agro commodities are still below multi decade resistances, and global equity fails to portray any crisis.

So should we ask again what’s losing value? Yes cash is, it’s more but has lesser purchasing value. Let’s ask another question. What is perceived more valuable, cash or non cash assets?  We as a society are still giving cash more importance. Ask yourself, what do you desire more, a larger salary or larger number of gold biscuits. Yes, many of us still desire more cash.

So is the perception regarding valuable cash correct or is it a misconception? How much more value should cash lose for the society to realize the reality, the hedonic myth that running after cash is good? Will the society ever realize till it wakes up one fine day, holding lot of worthless cash in safe deposits? Remember Germany where they used paper cash for fireplaces. There’s another important question. Till when would cash lose more value, or 90% of its value? 

This article is written for Alrroya 

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Copper Supercycle (1900 - 2015)

Prices are in a multi year supercycle wave up. The formation is completing the (1) intermediate of the 3 circle primary of the v cycle wave of the v supercycle wave, which should head into 2015-2017 exponential top.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


The Food Absolutist

The society promotes food absolutism as it is profitable business, and what’s profitable may not always be value driven.

Interest rate cycles suggest that everyone living today will come to see today as a time of great opportunities and not a crisis. The Time the interest rates hit zero (near zero), the start of a century long inflation. I have mentioned this prior that hyperinflation does not really mean Zimbabwean inflation, but it definitely means double digit interest rates as high as 20% in a few cases. We have lived through this historical time prior and we will live it again, mainly our children.

But what really concerns me with such a probable outlook is that how will the society feed itself? Food is at the heart of inflation. And if you thought food was expensive today, you really need to brace up for what can happen to you daily bread and butter tomorrow.

Everything is connected in time. So whether it will be the food prices blamed for inflation or otherwise, the net result is that food…

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


The Soft Supercycle

Despite the recent fall Sugar and Coffee are still in news. The preferred view might look like an extending 3 cycle wave up. However, it makes sense to see what is not obvious from a rising asset price structure. This is the most common mistake Elliotticians make, not thinking of how the asset can surprise or in other words a backup alternate count. We have made a case for an alternate super cycle reversal here for sugar.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts


Natgas Grand Supercycle (1945 - 2010)

Natural Gas is moving up in a five wave structure since 1945. Commodities are known to have extended fifth wave structures, making the complete wave structure as a nine legged formation. A fall of Natural Gas below previous grand supercycle IV (circle) low of 1995 at 1.55 would negate all commodity secular bull and inflationary expectations. It would also suggest a drop in the global energy consumption.

This does not seem to be the case now….

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts.


Alpha Global - The Pair Grid

A technician always has a challenge of coverage. We are trained for speed to spot opportunities. One can look at BSE 30 components, but looking through BSE500 or say RUSSELL 3000 chart by chart is a tough task. The information is growing exponentially like everything else and systems are needed to know where to look.

Orpheus Performance cycles are a novel way to manage a large universe of coverage that works on the idea of mathematical time and cyclical performance. The worst performers should outperform and best performers should underperform.

Today we have matched the best with the worst in the pair grid. The horizontal menu is the top performers and the vertical components are the worst assets. Alpha Global covers 120 assets. This includes commodities, currencies, DOW 30 components, Global Equity Indices and sector representations.

This feature is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts

Enjoy the latest Alpha Global.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Time Analytics research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities