Archive for the ‘Intermarket Analysis’ category

The Intermarket Jiseki (Cycles)

Intermarket analysis has become an essential part of a technician’s toolbox. Using R we have created this illustration where all the quarterly Jiseki Cycles for Indian Energy have been plotted.

The illustration tells us which are the worst quarterly components, which are the best and it also tells us there tendencies respective to each other. For example Petronet and SEAMEC is the only Jiseki cycle which are relatively increasing compared to the rest of the energy components.

These are quarterly Jiseki performances which can indicate intermediate trends in sectors or sector components. This is why we call it ‘The Intermarket Jiseki’.


Avinash Barnwal is Master of Science in Statistics and Informatics from IIT Kharagpur. He has worked on human response time at Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam.  Avinash is a Quantitative Analyst at Orpheus developing money management solutions and building statistical models to address temporal challenges.


The Intermarket Utility

Things keep changing as times change. Conventional intermarket tells us a few characteristics about utility sectors. First it belongs to the late economic sector. Second bond prices and utility stocks usually trend in the same direction. They peaked together in late 1993 and bottomed together in late. In a climate of falling bond prices, utilities are often among the stocks that suffer the greatest damage.

Third, because of the perceived utility and bond link, even utilities are assumed to have a connection with commodities like copper. At the start of 1995, the peak in copper prices coincided with an important bottom in bond prices. The CRB/bond ratio turned up in late 1993 and continued to rise for almost a year. This was during a period of time when copper stocks rose and utilities tumbled.

 

Visiting markets from 1995 onwards…

 

This article was written for ATMA.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

 


Sensex vs. Dow

Emerging equity is an active asset class. Money flows in and out of them actively. No wonder intermarket analysis between Sensex and Dow assumes an important role.

This week we are looking at Sensex, Dow and their intermarket relationship. Sensex is testing its previous low. The more prices test their previous supports successively, the more likely to break. Even if look at the current formation as an Elliott C wave and not a 3 wave down (Fig. 3), next immediate supports lie at 18,000. Weekly momentum and negative Rieki performance cycle (Fig. 1) confirm our negative case.

What happens from Sensex 18,000 is the tricky part. Whether that’s all the correction we will have on India? Or is there more to come? …

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

The Intermarket Rieki

Confirmation and non confirmations are at the heart of technical analysis. Whether it’s the Dow Theory speaking about the confirmations between Dow Industrial and Transports as a tenet for a trend continuation or it’s an intermarket ratio line breaking a multiyear trendline, we are always seeking an evidence for continuation or reversal of a trend.

Pattern identification is a high skill and also at the heart of technical analysis, but there are a few published rules regarding the workability and backtested results of non confirmations. Non confirmations are as prone to failure as any other market pattern.  Times have changed. New age technicians should accept that market complexity has increased and the days of Joseph Granville confident fanfare forecasts may take a while to return. Accuracy needs more than visual skill today.

This is the reason …

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Time to short auto, long oil?

If you superimpose two charts of BSEOIL and BSEAUTO together, you will see two similar looking charts with increase and decreasing gaps between them. Just by looking at charts one can attempt to judge outperformance and underperformance of the respective sectors, but it’s not easy. This is because Elliott waves can extend, oversold assets can remain oversold or stagnant for a longer time and trendline breaks may not give sustained reversals.

To improve on this ability to judge performance technicians use relative performance. This is a ratio line, which indicates whether the ratio between two assets is rising or falling. A falling ratio is underperformance for the Numerator asset and vice versa.

In the case illustrated here, we have the ratio line …

This article was written for Association of Technical Market Analysts

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


Redefining Intermarket Analysis

What is Victor Niederhoffer’s historical validation for naïve reasons?
When do fundamentalists and market technicians in consensus?
Are there things even consensus can’t solve?
How does divergence look explainable on a hidsignt basis?
What is the real challenge when it comes to market divergence?
Why do Elliotticians despite such sharpness in pattern recognition lack the command on intermarket picture?

“Elliotticians tag, ‘we are here’ by drawing a fractalled contour of a wave structure. They count it, label it and point ‘we are going here’ in 2012. Even Elliotticians despite such sharpness lack the command on intermarket picture. We decided to understand intermarket failure. We took 55 assets from the following asset classes; metals, energy, agro, bonds, currency, equity, and benchmarked all of them against ….”

Why does Murphy call the study intermarket analysis not intermarket cycles?
Are markets not supposed to do what they are doing?
Can intermarket failure be explained?

The latest time triads explains intermarket failures. You can download the report from the following links.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya