Archive for the ‘K CYCLE’ category

Why the K Cycle Fails alternately?

The following was a question asked by a fellow market technician.

Is India starting a Kondratieff Winter ?

INDIA’S KONDRATIEFF WAVE CYCLE : 25 FEB 2010 - I have posted my most detailed analysis of where I think India stands on the Kondratieff wave cycle. This article will enrich you with the basics of this most important 70 year financial cycle that affects our economy and markets very closely and works around the 5-3 Elliott Wave Structure. I also discuss what will now be my preferred wave count for the price structure for 2008-2013. Its probably the first cyclic analysis of the Kondratieff wave done on the Indian economy and should get you thinking. Views and comments are welcome.

This was the answer given.

The long cycle debate was addressed by Tony Plummer in his book. Where he explained why only alternate K cycles work. Even from Time Triads structures of 3-10-30-90 year cycles one comes to the same conclusion that alternate K cycles will work as K cycles is near 60 years. Because of it’s length sometime it fits in the Time Triads and sometime it conflicts (Explained in illustration above). This is the reason for alternate potency. This was also the reason we carried the 2010 India outlook comparing Sensex to 1990′s bear market on DOW.

A net positive 2010 is a low probability scenario at this stage. India is in a multiyear trading range for us, something like the 1990’s US bear market which lasted for 4 years. Till the time we get clarity on the absolute performance, we will stick to the relative performance, get out of today’s top performers and get into today’s top underperformers.