Archive for the ‘Time Triads’ category

Time Fractals in market structure and econometrics journal

Capital Markets Market Microstructure eJournal SSRN

Econometrics Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal SSRN

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers Time Cycles on global assets and forecasts. The report uses alternative research techniques to study emerging markets and carries updates on behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Egypt and the old contrarian

The old contrarian is looking at Egypt as an opportunity of the decade.

We ranked the MENA performance before Egypt was in the news and for the last 12 months Egypt CCSI was one of the worst performing markets of the region. For us at Orpheus markets tend to make solid bottoms under extreme negative news and this is what seems to be happening in Egypt, worst news is taking the markets lower into a multiyear bottom.

Egypt might look like a different extreme than the Tulip Mania, but both of the events created extremes. The former event is subduing prices while the other rocketed them up. At the top of the Tulip mania, a sailor was imprisoned on felony charges because he mistook a valuable tulip bulb sitting on a countertop in a merchant’s office for an onion and ate it for lunch along with a piece of herring. The bulb was so valuable that it would have paid to feed his shipmates for a whole year. These strange times repeat. Tulip mania was the time that a few thought about shifting from the gold standard to the tulip standard.

This article is written for Alrroya

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers Time Cycles on global assets and forecasts. The report uses alternative research techniques to study emerging markets and carries updates on behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


Shiller's Fluctuations vs. Temporal Changes

Robert Shiller was not only one of the few to challenge the efficient market theory, as early as 1981 he was also the first to connect fundamental data with market data.

His paper on ‘The Volatility of Stock markets Prices’ published in 1987 uses dividend data and real interest rates to seek evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. His paper concluded that most of the volatility of the stock market prices appears unexplained.

Shiller’s volatility or fluctuations prove that behavior of markets is not normal. Non normal distribution series is a widely followed proof of inefficiency in prices. He illustrated his fluctuation case (Fig. 2) where he plotted the fluctuations of market prices compared to a fundamental value. The fluctuation in real market were simply too large to explain.

How did we explain Shiller’s fluctuations with temporal changes?

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Shiller’s Fluctuations vs. Temporal Changes

Robert Shiller was not only one of the few to challenge the efficient market theory, as early as 1981 he was also the first to connect fundamental data with market data.

His paper on ‘The Volatility of Stock markets Prices’ published in 1987 uses dividend data and real interest rates to seek evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. His paper concluded that most of the volatility of the stock market prices appears unexplained.

Shiller’s volatility or fluctuations prove that behavior of markets is not normal. Non normal distribution series is a widely followed proof of inefficiency in prices. He illustrated his fluctuation case (Fig. 2) where he plotted the fluctuations of market prices compared to a fundamental value. The fluctuation in real market were simply too large to explain.

How did we explain Shiller’s fluctuations with temporal changes?

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Sensex vs. Dow

Emerging equity is an active asset class. Money flows in and out of them actively. No wonder intermarket analysis between Sensex and Dow assumes an important role.

This week we are looking at Sensex, Dow and their intermarket relationship. Sensex is testing its previous low. The more prices test their previous supports successively, the more likely to break. Even if look at the current formation as an Elliott C wave and not a 3 wave down (Fig. 3), next immediate supports lie at 18,000. Weekly momentum and negative Rieki performance cycle (Fig. 1) confirm our negative case.

What happens from Sensex 18,000 is the tricky part. Whether that’s all the correction we will have on India? Or is there more to come? …

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Cost of Money

Cheap cost of money is one reason why markets may discount negative news and continue to rise despite any short term negativity.

I was invited to present at the Market Technicians Association, Global intermarket conference at Budapest. Technicians from Central and Eastern Europe had come together to discuss the global intermarket situation and outlook for 2011. In this first issue of the year I will discuss the observations made at the conference regarding the larger global perspective and next week I will summarize the global outlook for 2011.

One of the key questions being raised at the conference was how the market was discounting everything from toxic paper, bad debt to all negative news and continuing its rally up? A significant answer raised by the panel was regarding the cost of money. If the cost of money…

This article is written for Alrroya

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


The Intermarket Rieki

Confirmation and non confirmations are at the heart of technical analysis. Whether it’s the Dow Theory speaking about the confirmations between Dow Industrial and Transports as a tenet for a trend continuation or it’s an intermarket ratio line breaking a multiyear trendline, we are always seeking an evidence for continuation or reversal of a trend.

Pattern identification is a high skill and also at the heart of technical analysis, but there are a few published rules regarding the workability and backtested results of non confirmations. Non confirmations are as prone to failure as any other market pattern.  Times have changed. New age technicians should accept that market complexity has increased and the days of Joseph Granville confident fanfare forecasts may take a while to return. Accuracy needs more than visual skill today.

This is the reason …

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

The Global Rieki

The best part of looking at performance is that more the coverage the better the identification, isolation and interpretation of performance gets. We have increased our global coverage yet again. Now we are tracking all the S&P 500, top commodities, top currencies, top global indices and some emerging market assets.

Looking at such a cross section of assets technically could be tiring. But again even if we can’t chart such a large universe, we need systems to filter out potential outperformers from underperformers. We have mentioned on prior occasions the performance is cyclical. If we assume that this premise is true, life becomes easy for a technician. She (he) already knows his technical short list of assets.
Today we will be reviewing…

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Navigating in Marisel

Technology seems invincible because we mistook consumption for innovation.  Inflationary markets are a real threat to the lovable tech app.

I was at Marisel for New Year, away from technology. It was a conscious effort to detach, to go to a mountain cabin with friends. At 1,300 meters Marisel is one of the highest settlements in the Apuseni mountain range in Transylvania. The scales really change when you go and live on a mountain rather than flying over one. I imagined a small wooden cabin with small beds and a fireplace and lot of quilts. But at 4,300 feet not only it was modern living with lot of snow with great landscape but also high speed internet.

I was happy doing the real networking and not social networking. How much technology do we need anyway? People lived without it all the time. Some still don’t know how the world changed in the last twenty years. My host, a local farmer turned eco tourism entrepreneur was still in 1970′s. He knew how to farm, manage cattle, navigate the mountains and of course enjoy life. Was he the real loser of information age? Or was it me who ran a virtual global office? This farmer here knew more about conservation than me. I was the mall guy. He was about life and I was about lifestyle. Mountain tech could help him survive another decade without even ever having to convert his cash to buy gold, to hedge. He had limited cash, he was still on barter. Did we complicate our life too much?….

This article is written for Alrroya

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

The Primary Inflation

Relative performance line between the Commodity Index (CRB) and Global Bonds can indicate whether the time ahead is inflationary or not. The primary case (Fig 1.) illustrates that Bonds have outperformed CRB and are now at historical extreme of more than a decade. There has been a relentless rise in global bonds, but that has not been the case with commodities, which have slowed down and stagnated a bit compared to the controlled interest rate situation.

So where does this leave us? Extremes are unsustainable, especially when they become of a multiyear nature.

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.