Archive for the ‘Time Triads’ category

INR Q4 Seasonality

Cyclists are also technicians, if we consider the fact that they are also looking for seasonality pattern in prices. As studying Time gathers momentum among chartists, Time studying techniques will evolve. One of the old methods to spot seasonality is just going there and spotting it.
Here we have illustrated the INR Q4 indicator. Q4 has been a strong inflexion time for INR. From 1990 till 2002, after every Q4 prices have seen primary year long weakness. This seasonality changed polarity from 2002 till 2008 (INR strengthening) and now from 2008 INR Q4 is in a seasonality of weakness. This Q4 inflexion has only failed twice in 20 years. We have assumed the neutral cases where INR was flat over the duration as correct.

What is the reason this weakness seasonality may persist?

Merry Christmas, happy holidays and prosperous New Year wishes.

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Inflation or deflation?

 

Source: Wikipedia, Illustration of the Cineorama balloon simulation, at the 1900 Paris Exposition

Why does a society find it so tough to comprehend whether the future is inflationary or deflationary?

Inflation is when cash loses value and deflation is when cash has all the value. Now what’s losing value? Cash or gold? There is much more money following the same assets. Equities and commodities are where they were few years back. Gold is 30% from the psychological 1000 dollar level for more than 3 years now, agro commodities are still below multi decade resistances, and global equity fails to portray any crisis.

So should we ask again what’s losing value? Yes cash is, it’s more but has lesser purchasing value. Let’s ask another question. What is perceived more valuable, cash or non cash assets?  We as a society are still giving cash more importance. Ask yourself, what do you desire more, a larger salary or larger number of gold biscuits. Yes, many of us still desire more cash.

So is the perception regarding valuable cash correct or is it a misconception? How much more value should cash lose for the society to realize the reality, the hedonic myth that running after cash is good? Will the society ever realize till it wakes up one fine day, holding lot of worthless cash in safe deposits? Remember Germany where they used paper cash for fireplaces. There’s another important question. Till when would cash lose more value, or 90% of its value? 

This article is written for Alrroya 

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

The Greedy Cluster


Emotions are as mathematicaly ordered as stars in the galaxy.

Are emotions subjective or objective? Why investors are known to buy high and sell low? Why do we overreact? Why do we exaggerate? Why are we greedy? Why does the society panic? Why majority of us move with the trend? Can we define happiness as a mathematical function?

If we could do this, we could change our understanding of the society. We could understand how the society thinks and how it acts. Businesses could understand consumption patterns, target audiences. It could open up new ways of marketing and advertising.

The recent Economist article illustrated the correlation between money and happiness. If money and happiness were studied on an arithmetic scale, money it seemed could not buy happiness, the correlation was poor. But when similar GDP data was plotted along with life satisfaction on a logarithmic scale, the relationship between income and happiness looked more robust. The author does not make an attempt to explain why this happened. Logarithmic scale compares proportions. Somehow the pattern of increasing income was similar to increasing happiness. This lead to a more robust correlation compared to the initial belief that money and happiness correlations weaken beyond a GDP per capita of $ 15,000.

To read more visit Alrroya.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


Fractal Geometry - Spidron

A spidron is a plane figure consisting of an alternating sequence of equilateral and isosceles (30°, 30°, 120°) triangles. Within the figure, one side of a regular triangle coincides with one of the sides of an isosceles triangle, while another side coincides with the hypotenuse of another, smaller isosceles triangle. The sequence can be repeated any number of times in the direction of the smaller and smaller triangles, and the entire figure is centrally projected through the mid-point of the base of the largest isosceles triangle.

The semi-spidron is half of the spidron, consisting of increasingly densely packed and smaller regular and isosceles triangles. The sequence can also be continued in the opposite direction, with ever larger triangles, ad infinitum. It seems to me that this composition, or to use the term that is more customary in mathematics, this “triangle complex”, or the half of it I call a semi-spidron is the foundation for all the other shapes with their interesting spatial and almost “spatially flexing” properties which – according to the comments and the feedback I get – promise novel developments in the fields of geometry, physics and other branches of science.

Source: http://edan.szinhaz.org//SpidroNew/general_concept.htm


52 Week High to Low

52 week highs could be used as a reallocation exit strategy back into assets quoting near 52 week lows.

Highs are more visible than lows. So we buy what is visibly gaining than what is struggling at the lows. I know two experts who have a 52 week strategy. One talks about buying stocks which break above 52 week highs. The other expert is Gupta uncle (a veteran investor) who sells stocks when they reach 52 week highs.

Momentum investing is easy. This is why there are more people buying stocks then selling stocks at 52 week highs. Actually I know very few people who sell at 52 week highs. We have more trend watchers among us who get excited about new highs than get worried about them. Gupta uncle never looks at charts also. He keeps a track of the prices and exits when they reach 52 week highs. Another reason why he is able to do it is because he works with a portfolio. He has a large portfolio, so he is not in love with stocks and his detached approach helps him get out. He has a similar approach to entry. When things get too subdued he buys.

Overconfidence makes us believe that we can trade our way to richness with a single Nifty. One asset trading is the biggest illusion of “modern” investment. There are courses and books on trading built around one asset trading. Master swing on E mini S&P 500 futures. Abandoning a portfolio at the expense of higher risk (single asset) strategy invariably turns against the trader, sooner or later. Now that we already showcased that Nifty Sleeps (Visit ATMA - Chart of the week). One asset trading is suicidal and absolutism built around that asset dead. One has to really ask the question, whether he is in the business of making money consistently in the long run or feeling great about doubling in a week? I understand that the kick of doubling money in a week is high, but believe me in the long run you are heading into karmic punishments not rewards.

Stock markets are like any other enterprise where you are going to make big deals only 20% of the time. So if you are not going to contain the risk in the rest 80% of the time, you will never reach the 20% opportunity. You have to avoid the burn out. This of course is not what they teach you at Dalal Street.

Markets are about managing risk more than generating return. Rather markets are all about managing risks. The more you attack risk the more you can generate a consistent return. Humans are shortsighted. They will always be and this is why we have forgotten the idea of buying stocks without margin at 52 week lows, holding them for a year and booking partial gains by selling the stocks when they hit 52 week high and start all over again.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


Gold (1900-2010)

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


Copper Supercycle (1900 - 2015)

Prices are in a multi year supercycle wave up. The formation is completing the (1) intermediate of the 3 circle primary of the v cycle wave of the v supercycle wave, which should head into 2015-2017 exponential top.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


Time to short auto, long oil?

If you superimpose two charts of BSEOIL and BSEAUTO together, you will see two similar looking charts with increase and decreasing gaps between them. Just by looking at charts one can attempt to judge outperformance and underperformance of the respective sectors, but it’s not easy. This is because Elliott waves can extend, oversold assets can remain oversold or stagnant for a longer time and trendline breaks may not give sustained reversals.

To improve on this ability to judge performance technicians use relative performance. This is a ratio line, which indicates whether the ratio between two assets is rising or falling. A falling ratio is underperformance for the Numerator asset and vice versa.

In the case illustrated here, we have the ratio line …

This article was written for Association of Technical Market Analysts

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


The Extraordinary Delusions

Societal expressions will remain extraordinary and extreme, cyclically.

Abraham Lincoln was careful about what he wrote. But it was his duel of 1842 with James Shields that really brought that cautious change. Dueling was a normal practice to challenge and sort out differences. Lincoln apologized and managed to avoid a potential disaster. America could have lost its president to a duel.

There is always belief of opinion, a challenger and a contest. This contest becomes delusional when it beats commonsense, is not normal, has extremity associated with it. This is why Charles Mackay details duels as one of the extraordinary delusions society suffered till 1790’s. Charles did not live long enough to see how madness of crowds persisted long after his historical ‘Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds.’ Societal solutions or approach generally has extremity associated with it. It’s not just about wars, but panic, euphoria, consumption excesses, construction, capitalism or communism all have an extremity in nature.

This article is written for Alrroya

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

ATMA - The BSE Power

BSE Power is one of the worst 12-month performer registering -3% for the period. Barring BSE Real rest of the sectors have outperformed power. BSE Consumer durables were up 82% for the year.
For us at Orpheus, a year-long loser is attractive value. To study the price structure, we inverted the chart. What did we observe?

This article was written for Association of Technical Market Analysts

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.