Archive for the ‘Time Triads’ category

The Information Wisdom

When Tim Flanagan jokes about assassinating Julian Assange on prime time tv, it not only comes across as a bad joke but also suggests the importance the Calgary Professor gives to insider information.
Stock markets have addressed the insider information decades back, judgments have already been passed (Jamie Olis reduced sentence in 2006) and even behavioral finance suggests that informed investors could be biased.
Information in its raw form has already lost a lot of premium since Reuters was transferring messges between Brussels and Aachen using carrier pigeons. The new age has moved ahead from raw information to interpretation to compression and visualization.
David McCandless work in progress on beautiful information suggests a hierarchy of visual understanding. It is like the Maslow’s hierarchy with data (words, numbers, code, tables, and databases) at the base. This is followed by information (sentences, paragraphs, equations, concepts, idea, questions, and simple stories) where the insider comes in, which McCandless labels as linked information. After this comes knowledge, organized information and concepts. This is concluded by the peak as in wisdom with applied knowledge, axioms, philosophies, principles etc.
Society is still struggling at deconstructing crude information to interpret it. The information overload has overwhelmed us. It’s only after we simplify it can we move to wisdom. McCandless suggests that information design solves information problems and data according to him is not the new oil, but the new soil. There is another interesting thing he mentions is that absolute in not true, relative is.
The whole idea of looking at a group of assets in an index was about simplifying market information, making the asset more understandable, making it easy to monitor. A simple design (indexing) changed the investing philosophy.
Extending his relative idea the author suggests that instead of looking at US defense budget (top budget spender) as an absolute parameter if one looked at budge spending as a % of GDP, the ominous US top rankings become mild and marginal. Comparing the Icelandic volcano carbon emission to the amount of carbon airplanes generally emit (and were grounded for the period), the volcano in question seems net carbon neutral. Information interpretation is a lot about comparison.
There is a lot of information stock markets generate. The next investment ideas are going to come from information compression and design tools. Performance cycles compresses price performance of 500 Indian stocks and rank them for seasonality. It’s a simple and effective way to look at the best and worst. But unlike what David is saying we suggest that information wisdom has a pattern, has a cycle and is a fractal. This again is not hard to prove. Take 10 words and rank them for frequency in a newspaper, webpage or a database. Sort them and see the pattern. Do it a thousand times, you will see the same pattern.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


The Food Absolutist

The society promotes food absolutism as it is profitable business, and what’s profitable may not always be value driven.

Interest rate cycles suggest that everyone living today will come to see today as a time of great opportunities and not a crisis. The Time the interest rates hit zero (near zero), the start of a century long inflation. I have mentioned this prior that hyperinflation does not really mean Zimbabwean inflation, but it definitely means double digit interest rates as high as 20% in a few cases. We have lived through this historical time prior and we will live it again, mainly our children.

But what really concerns me with such a probable outlook is that how will the society feed itself? Food is at the heart of inflation. And if you thought food was expensive today, you really need to brace up for what can happen to you daily bread and butter tomorrow.

Everything is connected in time. So whether it will be the food prices blamed for inflation or otherwise, the net result is that food…

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


The Soft Supercycle

Despite the recent fall Sugar and Coffee are still in news. The preferred view might look like an extending 3 cycle wave up. However, it makes sense to see what is not obvious from a rising asset price structure. This is the most common mistake Elliotticians make, not thinking of how the asset can surprise or in other words a backup alternate count. We have made a case for an alternate super cycle reversal here for sugar.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts


The Cycle Currency

The further we go away from a core idea, the bigger trouble we get into. The unfortunate part is that the very nature of economics, nature and society is about going further to extremes, invariably to an unbalancing situation.

The derivatives we blame today were created for the farmer who needed a risk management solution for his farm produce. He did not want to be left to the vagaries of natures and speculative volatilities. These derivatives were good and useful. The instruments are still fulfilling the same role for the farmer. The only problem is that along with the hedger came the speculator who was not only offering a counter party hedge but also leveraging. This brings in all the risks of volatility to a society. This is no normal volatility. This is volatility that creates risk, leading to bankruptcies and financial disasters.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

To read more visit Alrroya


Natgas Grand Supercycle (1945 - 2010)

Natural Gas is moving up in a five wave structure since 1945. Commodities are known to have extended fifth wave structures, making the complete wave structure as a nine legged formation. A fall of Natural Gas below previous grand supercycle IV (circle) low of 1995 at 1.55 would negate all commodity secular bull and inflationary expectations. It would also suggest a drop in the global energy consumption.

This does not seem to be the case now….

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts.


The Benner Prophecy



Benner’s model of ‘Time’ predicts a mini crash in 2011, a boom till 2019 and a depression in 2021. He was the first one to talk about hierarchal ‘Time’ in 1875.

Benner Samuel was a farmer from Ohio who wrote his prophecies in a book about price fluctuations in 1875. The 19th century was also the time of Laplacian probability, Gaussian distributions, Peano curves and Cantor set. While mathematicians were looking for structures in mathematics, Benner was studying and writing about a model of ‘Time’ to forecast the future.

Benner lived in an era of Axe Houghton Indices, the time when Chicago Board of Trade was established and agricultural commodity trading was active business. Society was busy with agriculture and expanding railroads. This is why his workings were based on pig iron, corn, cotton and hogs. Along with agriculture came the essential science of weather forecasting. What years would be dry or wet? When we may expect years of heat, storm an cold? Agricultural statistics was compiled and used to establish demand and supply patterns. It was then 135 years back Benner wrote that the future cannot be calculated based on agricultural statistics. Statistics compilation according to him would remain always poor, irregular, manipulable, undependable and non predictive.

This was the reason he focused on history…

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


Benner, Pareto and the structure of time

Benner was the first one to illustrate time hierarchy and Pareto showcased hierarchy in everything. Could they have connected the idea in 1900 before the Pareto curve?

Benner’s Prophecies - Future up and down in prices was written in 1875. A keen technician will sooner or later hit the fascinating time geometry of the Benner cycle. Samuel Benner was a prosperous farmer wiped out financially by the 1873 panic. He turned to wheat farming in Ohio and took up the statistical study of price movements as a hobby to find, if possible, the answers to the recurring ups and downs in business. He noted that highs of the business tend to follow a repeating 8-9-10 yearly pattern. With respect to economic low points, he noted two series of time sequences indicating that recessions (bad times) and depressions (panics) tend to alternate.

I updated the Benner cycles and they suggest a top in 2010, a slowdown and low in 2011, a cycle high again till 2019 and then depression in 2021.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts


The New Gold - I

The global monetary system needs a financial and technological innovation.

Peter Bernstein looked at gold from a historical aspect in his book ‘The Power of Gold, the history of an obsession’. From the start of Egyptian era in 3100 BC when Pharaoh’s ruled to the Roman Empire, the author illustrated how gold slowly and steadily became the real money.

The current stage of gold also gives it an aura, but this time it’s the public that has been enamored by it not the central bankers. I don’t know how Robert M. Solow will connect gold with economic growth, but just like Benjamin Disraeli, he would say the same thing, “Gold is not a cause of growth but a consequence of it”

Solow proved that only technological progress leads to real growth. A closer look at Bernstein’s history from a Solowian perspective based on technological innovations and other financial innovations reveals interesting aspects about gold.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya.

Alpha Global - The Pair Grid

A technician always has a challenge of coverage. We are trained for speed to spot opportunities. One can look at BSE 30 components, but looking through BSE500 or say RUSSELL 3000 chart by chart is a tough task. The information is growing exponentially like everything else and systems are needed to know where to look.

Orpheus Performance cycles are a novel way to manage a large universe of coverage that works on the idea of mathematical time and cyclical performance. The worst performers should outperform and best performers should underperform.

Today we have matched the best with the worst in the pair grid. The horizontal menu is the top performers and the vertical components are the worst assets. Alpha Global covers 120 assets. This includes commodities, currencies, DOW 30 components, Global Equity Indices and sector representations.

This feature is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts

Enjoy the latest Alpha Global.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Time Analytics research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities


Life and coastlines

Some problems span multi generations, Benoit Mandelbrot solved one such problem and earned himself a well deserving place in history, as the father of fractals.  Many of these mathematical structures and their descriptions go back to classical mathematics and mathematicians of the past like Cantor, Peano, Hilbert, Koch, Sierpinski, Julia, Hausdorff, but it was Mandelbrot who extended the early topology. Fractals solve the problem of how to organize complicated structure in an efficient way. Of course this was not what Peano and Hilbert were interested in almost 100 years ago. It was only after Mandelbrot’s work that the omnipresence of fractals became apparent.

Mandelbrot was a visionary in his ability to connect mathematics and patterns. He too like many other great thinkers worked on ideas of aggregation, simplification, order, efficiency rules, cyclicality in errors, interconnectedness of nature through geometrical structures. Mandelbrot illustrated that very simple formulas can generate objects that exhibit an extraordinary wealth of structure. His work encompasses mathematics, physics, economics and diverse other fields of physical and social sciences, music and art. He died on 14 Oct at the age of 85 after suffering from pancreatic cancer.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya