Archive for the ‘Time Triads’ category

Sugar, Carbon Rieki Structures

REUTERS RICS:  SUGA.L, CARB.L

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 50. 1 is top relative performance and 50 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Vivek is a qualified Chartered Accountant (Institute of Chartered Accountants of India). Vivek is passionate about Technical Analysis, a self taught Elliott Wave Technician. He conducts technical analyis on a variety of financial instruments on his blog vivekoutlook.blogspot.com. He will be covering commodities for Orpheus Research.
Vivek has worked with BDO Consulting in Oman, as Business Consultant working on feasibility studies for expansion projects for companies. He has worked with Irevna – Division of CRISIL conducting fundamental analysis - sell side analysis - of Information technology companies.

Crude completing B or new leg up? Rieki suggests bottoming

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published monthly. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM- , .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N , IPNG , NG-P-CALPerformance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 50. 1 is top relative performance and 50 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Vivek is a qualified Chartered Accountant (Institute of Chartered Accountants of India). Vivek is passionate about Technical Analysis, a self taught Elliott Wave Technician. He conducts technical analyis on a variety of financial instruments on his blog vivekoutlook.blogspot.com. He will be covering commodities for Orpheus Research. Vivek has worked with BDO Consulting in Oman, as Business Consultant working on feasibility studies for expansion projects for companies. He has worked with Irevna – Division of CRISIL conducting fundamental analysis - sell side analysis - of Information technology companies.

The Auto Story

The auto sector exponential growth suggests that it’s time to rethink for auto manufacturers and investors alike.
The modern city I knew as a child keeps changing. There used to be more roads and less cars, now there are only cars. If you want to see roads and have driving pleasure you have to skip two thirds of the day. Ok this may be more valid coming from an emerging market like India or China, but the emerging market outlook for auto has been assumed to be significant globally.
The conventional thought may see auto growth as economic growth, signs of prosperity. The auto sector would do well then it is a sign of continued growth. How good is this indicator? Have we not come a long way from assuming that auto is the leading indicator that powers the economic cycle up?
Indicator failure is a reality and ‘the car story’ also stands challenged, at least in the form that we know today.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


SSRN top 10. "The BRIC model from a Japanese Perspective"

Your paper, SSRN Top Downloads (BRIC), was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for POL: Other Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy (Topic), POL: Other Strategy & Microeconomic Policy (Topic), Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal and Strategy & Microeconomic Policy eJournal. As of 09/14/2010, your paper has been downloaded 11 times. You may view the abstract and download statistics at http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1654002.

Top Ten Lists are updated on a daily basis. Click on the following link to view the Top Ten list for the journal POL: Other Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy (Topic) Top TenPOL: Other Strategy & Microeconomic Policy (Topic) Top TenStrategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal Top Ten and Strategy & Microeconomic Policy eJournal Top Ten.

Click on the following link to view all the papers in the journal POL: Other Strategy & Macroeconomic Policy (Topic) All PapersPOL: Other Strategy & Microeconomic Policy (Topic) All PapersStrategy & Macroeconomic Policy eJournal All Papers and Strategy & Microeconomic Policy eJournal All Papers.

To view any of the Top Ten lists, click the TOP button on any network, subnetwork, journal or topic in the Browse list reachable through the following link: http://www.ssrn.com/Browse

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To read more, download the latest report of Time Triads from the links below.

For more information on Time Triads mail us at [email protected]

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

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Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Does Nifty Sleep?


If performance is cyclical like everything else in nature than asset prices are always relatively outperforming and underperforming. An underperforming asset is sleeping and stagnating. It lacks trading interest, tests patience and will deliver less than expectations. Now one may say, it is impossible to find when the Nifty sleeps and wakes up? Before we prove that one can pinpoint time let’s look at the shifting seasonality from sleeping and waking performance. Once we establish this seasonality, a momentum trader or investor would know that Nifty is going to sleep. Then you can do better with investments by simply ignoring Nifty.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts


Indian Banks - Exponentiality of Returns

These are the tabulated banking stocks performance (returns) for the last 3 months. A visible exponentiality. The banking stock covers State owned banks (SOB), Old Private sector banks and private banks.


Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


The Information Pattern

Information like everything else in nature is mathematically patterned. Understanding the pattern can help us make more sense of information.

Coming to look at it, we don’t trade or invest in assets but their intrinsic information. It is this information that gives them value. The relationship is considered linear between information and value, the higher the quality of the information, higher the perceived value in the assets and vice versa. For example, the value of Oil lies in the information code bits in it. Oil is going to get over, demand will overshoot supply, future is inflationary are some of the information bits that drive the price of Oil. A similar information code also works for Gold and other assets. It’s like DNA with a different code, but similar double helix structure.

However, that’s not how the society knows information. The masses know information as something that they read in the newspaper, something that they see on TV, or read on the web. It’s all about making sense of this clutter. The very fact that humans think there is a certain disorder in the information that they assume the confusion that comes with news. If the information works for us, great, If it does not, we accept it. We have learned to have fewer expectations from information.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya


Orpheus Rieki (Performance Cycles) featured in Journal of Economic Policy (Sofia)

Download Paper

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United Kingdom

Orpheus Research at Reuters - United States


Common Sense Society

Social Entrepreneurism could be the way ahead for society and it comes in where the state fails.
The world will always need common sense, but it needs courage to set up a society for it. I was in Budapest and thought of catching up with Anna Stumpf, a Washington educated International Relations expert.
The moment I stepped in Budapest I started looking around for what really drove this 25 year old social entrepreneur to create this movement. Bucharest was cleaner compared to Bucharest and Hungarians are considered to have a disciplining influence on the Transylvania region. Maybe it was wee hours of the morning, but I could not miss the few beggars, systematic searching through garbage boxes.
Beggars are a part of the modern metro. The richer an economic zone gets, the more sketchable the street guy gets. You just can’t avoid them wherever you go. But it may need common sense to think how the country should take care of its beggars? I had already started asking questions knowing that common sense was about creativity and creativity came from asking a lot of questions. Why was Anna not working on a creativity or green society but common sense society? And seeing bicycle lanes around Danube covered with active bikers from all ages, I really started to wonder how much sense did Hungary need anyway? Was common sense total, could becoming smarter in day to day life save Hungary from another debt crisis next time around? Was it a social purpose or was it her social purpose?

This article is written for Alrroya

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.


The Fat Tail

Last time we talked about divergence, how life and nature is replete with divergence cases and the debate built around it. The funny part of all this debate is that we are somewhere still living the blind men and the elephant metaphor. We don’t see the big picture. If Herbert Simon is to be believed we may never see the elephant. But then seeing more of an elephant is still better that just seeing its tail. Unfortunately that’s not how it works in society. We love tails, especially fat ones. There is a lot of literature on fat tails in statistics.

Claiming your idea to be better is one thing and suggesting the other idea is wrong is another. But then humans just like the curves they define live and believe in extremes. There are more than a few cases in History of mathematics where researchers trashed their peers or next generation of thinkers. The Bourbaki Secret Society was formed in 1935 because members felt that the older mathematicians were needlessly clinging to old practices. Prehistory of fractals also saw a lot of resistance. Henri Poincare called it as ‘Gallery of monsters’, Charles Hermite quoted them as ‘a lamentable plague of functions with no derivatives’. More recently Jean Dieudonne ‘Some mathematical curves like Peano Curve are totally non intuitive…extravagant’. Now we know how key Peano curve is for relativity and defining the structure of space.

Sometime the polarity does change. Carl Gauss, the prince of mathematics of the 18th century is trashed today by contemporary mathematicians like fractal guru Benoit Mandelbrot, who claims that the Gaussian bell curve is nonsense. Why was Mandelbrot so vocal about large divergences (extremities)? Could Mandelbrot have missed the big picture? Will Mandelbrot’s vision overtake Gaussian mathematics finally relegating bell curve, normal distributions to the annals of history?

We at Orpheus don’t think Gauss was wrong. The law of frequency of error took the shape of a bell curve. The idea first mentioned by Abraham Moivre in 1738 is now a part of societal faith and market modeling. Starting from Fundamental analysis, option pricing, statistics, the normal distribution curve is everywhere. The curve talks about patterns in divergences that revert around the mean. Francis Galton was so impressed with the idea that he wrote a complete theory of mean reversion around it.  Practical applications were built around the idea and it was used as a predictive model.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Alrroya