Archive for the ‘Pareto’ category

The random traveler


Benner, Pareto and the structure of time

Benner was the first one to illustrate time hierarchy and Pareto showcased hierarchy in everything. Could they have connected the idea in 1900 before the Pareto curve?

Benner’s Prophecies - Future up and down in prices was written in 1875. A keen technician will sooner or later hit the fascinating time geometry of the Benner cycle. Samuel Benner was a prosperous farmer wiped out financially by the 1873 panic. He turned to wheat farming in Ohio and took up the statistical study of price movements as a hobby to find, if possible, the answers to the recurring ups and downs in business. He noted that highs of the business tend to follow a repeating 8-9-10 yearly pattern. With respect to economic low points, he noted two series of time sequences indicating that recessions (bad times) and depressions (panics) tend to alternate.

I updated the Benner cycles and they suggest a top in 2010, a slowdown and low in 2011, a cycle high again till 2019 and then depression in 2021.

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

This article is written for Association of Technical Market Analysts