Archive for the ‘Socionomics’ category

The Black Crow


Call it a good omen or bad, human beings have associated natural occurrences with events. Though ‘objectivists’ say human beings suffer from illusion and see what they want, reconsideration shows there is more to illusion than just a black crow or swan.

Watching a crow perched outside your window or a black swan (aka rare event) gliding on a lake or on the trading screen are patterns because they repeat, even if rarely. If there was constant crisis we would not connect them to rare events because there would be no precedent for it. Only when the passing comet coincides with a famine is it that we label its next passing as a bad omen. It’s the repetition or the cyclicality of a process that guides society to establish patterns, no matter their frequency.

The point I am making here is that identifying an outlier such as a crow perching itself outside your window and metaphorically connecting it to economics, sensationalising a fluctuation does not make it all objective. At the soul of every pattern is a repetition, a cycle. The pattern keeps repeating because the cycle keeps pulsating. So, if time is at the heart of every pattern, why do patterns sell more than a time cycle? Patterns do offer a story and humans love stories (Shiller in Irrational Exuberance), but is there really an objective reason, which can make cycles more objective and scientific?

To read the complete article visit Business Standard.


Common Sense Society

Social Entrepreneurism could be the way ahead for society and it comes in where the state fails.
The world will always need common sense, but it needs courage to set up a society for it. I was in Budapest and thought of catching up with Anna Stumpf, a Washington educated International Relations expert.
The moment I stepped in Budapest I started looking around for what really drove this 25 year old social entrepreneur to create this movement. Bucharest was cleaner compared to Bucharest and Hungarians are considered to have a disciplining influence on the Transylvania region. Maybe it was wee hours of the morning, but I could not miss the few beggars, systematic searching through garbage boxes.
Beggars are a part of the modern metro. The richer an economic zone gets, the more sketchable the street guy gets. You just can’t avoid them wherever you go. But it may need common sense to think how the country should take care of its beggars? I had already started asking questions knowing that common sense was about creativity and creativity came from asking a lot of questions. Why was Anna not working on a creativity or green society but common sense society? And seeing bicycle lanes around Danube covered with active bikers from all ages, I really started to wonder how much sense did Hungary need anyway? Was common sense total, could becoming smarter in day to day life save Hungary from another debt crisis next time around? Was it a social purpose or was it her social purpose?

This article is written for Alrroya

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.