Archive for the ‘The Question of TIME’ category

THE MYSTIC TIME

Time like many other aspects could be labeled as mystic, but the reality is different.

Thanks to a friend, after a break of 15 years, I restarted Yoga a few months back. I also picked up the Bhagwad Gita ‘As it is’ and made it a part of the extended Saturday sessions. This could be considered a mystic exercise as spiritualism, supernaturalism and magic get bundled together as one.

Mysticism deals with mystery and the unexplained. Sometimes called as ‘mystery religion’, mysticism deals with the pursuit of an ultimate reality or a spiritual truth. Time in general and the power to overcome time (forecasting) in particular have always been a major subject of mysticism. All cultures had their oracles, druids, shamans, wizards, prophets, fortune tellers and other characters that were believed to be skilled enough to see the future and make contact with the spiritual world (or stock prices now).

This the economists might call as the unorganized sector of forecasting services. We may hate to talk about or study it as an area of higher study, conveniently discounting it but our day to day life is built around an attempt to live and understand the unknown.

The only mystics we are willing to accept are The Gods. They are the ones who possess the power to heal and forecast. However, when humans attempt it, it’s funny, entertaining and occult. The subject has a lot to do with what we humans can comprehend and what we can’t. If we can, it’s scientific and statistically significant, if we can’t its mystic. We can consult astrologers or read astro blogs when it comes for personal solutions, but when it comes to markets, Astrofunds are magical. We live in a world of convenience where accepting or ignoring something is easy. Here the unpopular is the infamous.

Leonardo Fibonacci (1170-1250) taught Europe how to count but what is left of his great work is a mystic sequence and a magical golden proportion. We had emerging market brokers asking if Fibonacci actually made money. Lack of historical interpretation, overestimation of personal skill complicated by a need for statistically significant proof has junked this great idea. A few scientists have found mathematics and logic in mysticism. The divine proportion rules nature. Mathematically known as phi, this number is present in all the aspects of the universe around us. We can see the proportion in the petals of a flower, in the human body, in pieces of art and architecture like the ancient pyramids, in stock market prices.

Because we consider Fibonacci as mystical we don’t see its utility beyond magic. Thanks to chartists and Elliotticians, Fibonacci is widely followed today. We have a section of experts talking about power law for a century and a half, but even they could not give Fibonacci its much deserved attention. We just did not want to do with anything magical. It was not scientific. Did we really try to see the science in Fibonacci series? No. A simple curve drawn on the Fibonacci sequence proves that the sequence is a power law curve. How did such a simple idea miss us for so long? Simplicity is tough and trashing is easy. A few fundamentalists recently refuted Fibonacci and sighted it as a mere coincidence appearing in markets. When you see the power law function in Fibonacci 61.8% retracement ceases to be magic and becomes a part of the other fractalled proportion we see in markets at all time degrees.

Idea of mysticism is also linked with Yoga and meditation. The meditative practice has seen a rise in the number of practitioners and celebrity acceptance. Recently Bill Gross, Fund manager mentioned about his decade long Yoga practice. However sighting meditation as a good tool for traders might create a chuckle. Neuroscientists have studied brain activity of Tibetan monks. With mediation Monks can shift brain activity to parts associated with peace and happiness. We will spend millions of dollars and decades of man hours creating subjects and research papers proving how fallible human mind is but we will not teach meditation and spiritual thought to traders to help them contain greed because that’s mysticism.

Considered a pseudoscience or superstition, astrology has played an important role in the development of cultures and history of mankind. Astrologers use sidereal time (‘star time’) to count and predict future events, such as catastrophes, diseases or opportune moments in the future for certain actions. Astrology has a lot to do with time and forecasting. There is even a concept called ‘Time Astrology’ which deals with the idea that there is good and bad timing, trying to predict the perfect moments for human actions. Time astrologers analyze the quality of the moment, its inner characteristics and influence on human lives. The cyclicality of time is also present in its various aspects, represented by the Zodiac and the predictability of time itself. The zodiac cycle is believed to influence human lives and one’s character.

Astrology is another science that has been trashed as mystic knowledge. It remains for niche clubs. We humans did not make an effort to understand astrology. There are many reasons. The subject assumes time cycles and planetary placement and its effect on a certain person or society as a whole. Many astro cyclists are computer engineers ex fundamentalists turned astro forecasters. India the land of astrology has generations taking up fancy to the subject. The astrology mystics can surprise you many times when they talk about Uranus, Jupiter and Saturn cycles affecting you. Finding a good astro adviser is as hard as stock picking but the idea of astrology being occult is sheer nonsense. Nostradamus contributed more than just some entertaining quatrains.

It was not very long ago charting was also mystical. A J Frost challenged the idea of charting being similar to falconry. Market Technicians Association was established in 1973 got the needed certification for its Technicians in 2006. Elliott waves are still considered mystical. It was a similar case with the Foundation of Cycles, started in 1940’s the institution failed to have the global reach it deserves just because time cycles are also considered mystical. I remember a quant laughing about a fellow time cyclist without even knowing that his area of work on power law was also the explanation for cycles in time.

Time is also on the short list. It is a mystery that the human mind is unable to solve. Time is the invisible presence which apparently governs everything, from the pulse of life in our heartbeats to the changing of seasons and generations. It is mysterious and controversial, unexplained and yet so natural. People have always wondered about the true nature of time and tried to solve its puzzle. Is it just another dimension or is it a higher dimension which stands above everything? Is it an illusion or is it real? Is it linear or is it cyclical? Did time exist before us or did we invent time? As Carlo Rovelli says, “It is not reality that has a time flow, but our very approximate knowledge of reality. Time is the effect of our ignorance.” The mystery of the mystic.

Time starts to unfold when we look at cyclicality, proportion and self-similar fractals (Time Triads). People pray at a religious place. A few of them praying for health, a few of them old praying for age, a few failed hedge fund managers, confessing (go to Jesus meetings). They all are not jut there because they felt a need to be more spiritual. They are also there because TIME seems to have turned against them. For some it was the decay of age, for a few it was the fluctuation written extensively by Mandelbrot and Shiller. For a few it was the excitement cycles which take us from believing that we are Gods to bringing us back to reality that we are not. For some it is the simple turn down in credit cycles, which makes us go spiritual.

Statistical significance has always been linked to a time series, but rarely on a fractalled time series. This means that statistics has mostly assumed like the rest of the sciences that time is a linear variable. Golden proportion is owing to the time fractals. The world we live in and our life are mathematical because time is the force that holds the world together. Bhagwad Gita was written sometime in the 5th century BC. The sacred book talks about the universe as a fraction. “A part of it we know, and the rest unknown.”

Mukul Pal and Anna Maria Michesan

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

Share


THE PHILOSOPHY OF TIME

The philosophy of time starts from the Socratic debate questioning time.

Socrates often said his wisdom was limited to the awareness of his own ignorance. He believed the best way for people to live was to focus on self-development rather than the pursuit of material wealth. Socrates seems to have been notorious for asking questions but not answering, claiming to lack wisdom. Perhaps his most important contribution to western thought is his dialectic method of inquiry, known as the Socratic Method, which he largely applied to the examination of key moral concepts such as the good and justice.

To solve a problem, one would pose a series of questions and the answer will filter out. The influence of this approach is most strongly felt today in the use of the scientific method, in which hypothesis is the first stage. The development and practice of this method is one of Socrates’ most enduring contributions, and is a key factor in earning his mantle as the father of political philosophy, ethics or moral philosophy, and as a figurehead of all the central themes in Western philosophy. “I know you won’t believe me, but the highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others”. He was put on trial and condemned to die by drinking hemlock, for the expression of his ideas against those of Athens. Jacques Louis David immortalized the event in his 1787 painting ‘The Death of Socrates’.

The theme of ancient philosophy was to understand the fundamental causes and principles of the universe. Medieval philosophy discussed the relation of faith and reason. The Renaissance was a period of transition between the theological philosophy of the middle ages and modern thought, in which Latin began to lose its role of the standard language for philosophical discussion as humane arts, such as history and literature became more popular. The concept of man became the central object of philosophical reflection. Modern philosophy begins with the revival of skepticism and the rise of modern physical science. Chronologically, this era spans the 17th and 18th centuries, and is generally considered to end with Immanuel Kant’s systematic attempt to reconcile Newtonian physics with traditional metaphysical topics. It was in nineteenth century that Karl Marx began the study of social materialist philosophy.

Contemporary philosophy is about Realism which tends to believe that whatever we believe now is only an approximation. Realism also suggests that every new observation brings us closer to understanding reality. These ideas are three centuries old but capable to challenge how society thinks today. Rationalism is another view emphasizing the role or importance of human reason. Extreme rationalism tries to base all knowledge on reason alone. Rationalism typically starts from premises that cannot coherently be denied, then attempts by logical steps to deduce every possible object of knowledge. Descartes, father of modern philosophy was of the view that we are directly aware of ideas, rather than objects.

Then came Skepticism, a philosophical attitude that questions the possibility of obtaining any sort of knowledge. “Nothing about the world can be established with certainty”. Idealism is about what is in the mind is known more reliably than what is known through the senses. There is no deep distinction between mental states, such as feeling pain, and the ideas about so called external things, that appear to us through the senses. This is the philosophical explanation of the linkage between psychology (mind) with economics (utility). Transcendental idealism, advocated by Immanuel Kant, proposed that there are limits on what can be understood, since there is much that cannot be brought under the conditions of objective judgment.

Another major theme was that there are fundamental features of reality that escape our direct knowledge because of the natural limits of the human faculties. Kant held that objective knowledge of the world required the mind to impose a conceptual or categorical framework like space and time. Pragmatism was founded in the spirit of finding a scientific concept of truth. Since the usefulness of any belief at any time might be contingent on circumstance, Peirce and James conceptualized final truth as that which would be established only by the future.

The closest philosophy gets to economics is when it studies moral science or Epistemology, which is a branch of philosophy concerned with nature and scope of knowledge. Much of the debate in the respective field is focused on analyzing the nature of knowledge and how it relates to similar notions such as truth, belief, and justification. Applied Philosophy takes philosophical pursuits into modern day fields such as psychology, sociology, linguistics, and economics. As areas of intellectual endeavor proliferate and expand, so will the broader philosophical questions that they generate. The process of philosophical thought is unending.

THE CURVED PHILOSOPHY OF EXPRESSION

Applied philosophies like psychology branched into finer studies that had a lot to do with understanding the trends prevalent in a certain time and how it was expressed through art, music and films. Robert Prechter makes an attempt to quantify social mood in popular song lyrics and quantifying pessimistic rumination in popular songs in his book Pioneering studies in Socionomics. He opens up a new area of philosophy suggesting that social mood drives markets. He illustrates this by studying various expressions of social mood. For example Music, which according to Prechter eliminates one of the most difficult psychological barriers that other communicators had to continually deal with: that of overcoming boredom, fear, dislike or mistrust of the communicator. The surge in activity over Michael Jackson’s passing only reemphasizes the impact music has on a society and why study of social mood would be incomplete and maybe ineffective if one would not study expressions in art and music.

David C. McClelland an American psychologist theorist in his acquired needs theory proposed that an individual’s specific needs are acquired over time and are shaped by one’s life experiences. Analysis of achievement motives in British school readers showed a strong correlation of these themes, a generation later, with the Britain’s industrial growth. This was approximately thirty to fifty years after the achievement themes of those stories. According the Prechter, “One of the most indicative elements of culture reflecting a nation’s collective potential for achievement decades before this potential is evidenced in the national economic growth rate is art. These reflections are not proposed as causes for the development of high or low achievement motivation in the population but merely as indices for measuring national attitude towards it”.

In other words, the social environment in which children are raised to regard diligence as a positive or negative good produces at the same time works of art which express this feeling. Visual arts can score levels of achievement motivation. The same achievement motivation level could be measured in literature of different times. McClelland in essence suggests that the level of economic growth of a country is characteristically cyclical. Societies were cyclical. The state of economic growth produces, in its turn economic prosperity. Thus an environment of affluence is created which is conducive to a child dependency and thus a non achieving oriented child and vice versa. Simply putting the theory suggests that the sketching I was doing in my art classes at school, three decades back could define me now.

Prechter extended McClelland’s work by focusing on song material rather than stories. The most interesting aspect is the classification of 134 songs. It is done in three heads with a total of nine subheads. Even if coincidence Prechter was following a classification based on time triads, three subdividing into nine. Another coincidence is the overlap in what McClelland proposed and the work of cyclists William Strauss and Neil Howe recurrent cycle of generations with similar mention of 30 and 90 year cycles, again a factor of three. If the cycles are so repetitive why is all the focus on studying and classifying mood, why are we not dedicating a part of research resources to TIME Mr. Prechter?

The history of psychology was exploring over the last 2500 years. We moved from the earth to the universe, faith to reason, focus from nature to the focus on man, Newtonian to metaphysical, socialism to materialism, realism to rationalism, objects to ideas, senses to the mind, limits in thought to unbounded approximation, ambiguity to space and time structure, philosophy to psychology, psychology to mood, mood to cycles. How far are we from philosophy of time? How much can we really ignore it? Is it really the emotion that keeps us alive as we react to the music or is it the cycle of time, which pulses relentlessly connecting everything around us music, art and emotion, synchronizing it in time?

Using the fractal S-curve, Theodore Modis, Market Guru and Physicist can explain Ernest Hemingway’s writing career, number of research papers written by Einstein and how Mozart’s compositions are mathematically fractalled.

THE PHILOSOPHY OF TIME

Humans have always felt the need to create and their interests and mentality reflect through their art and philosophy of life. Time was one of the most controversial subjects treated in art, mainly because people can’t understand time and time fascinates them. There is even an art institute which organizes an event called “Time-Based Art Festival” dedicated to capturing moments of movement in art.

The question of time was always one of the main concerns of philosophy among other existential problems like knowledge, truth, beauty, justice, mind or language. There are three main theories in philosophy regarding time, presentism, eternalism and a mid theory. Presentism states that only present things exist, the past and the future are unreal. The opposite of presentism is eternalism, which states that present, future and past things exist eternally. There is a third theory called “mid way theory” or “growing universe theory” which says that both past and present things are real, but the future is not, because it is uncertain or merely potential.

Friedrich Nietzsche was influenced by Heinrich Heine and Arthur Schopenhauer in his theory regarding the “eternal recurrence” which affirms that each individual may or will be born again and live an exact life as the previous, with the same joy and pain and this cyclicality would last forever. Charles Darwin comes to challenge Nietzsche’s theory with his work about evolution, stating that life evolves, time is linear and leads to progress.

One particular field where time is discussed in all aspects is literature. Poets and writers were among the artists who were the most fascinated with time. They tried to express their own thoughts combined with philosophy and time theories, analyzing the features of time and eventually arriving to one of the two basic aspects of time: linear time or cyclical time.

The issue of cyclic time is discussed by the Nobel Prize winner and Colombian writer, Gabriel Garcia Marquez in his novel called One Hundred Years of Solitude (1967). Even the text of the novel is cyclic, suggesting that any end develops to a new beginning and any beginning will have an end. The characters of the novel see everything repeating itself cyclically. Their history is a circular pattern of recurring events, yet these events are rather similar than equal. There is a certain parallelism between them and the end of the novel does not lead to cyclical regeneration, but to a final destruction.

T.S. Eliot, the famous Anglo-American poet called time “the still point of the turning world”. The greatest Romanian poet, Eminescu also saw time as being cyclical. He defines his theory clearly in his poem called Glossa. The poet talks about the only true way which leads to happiness: ignorance, because everything is repeating and there is no use for hope or fear.

Dante’s Divine Comedy sees time as being linear in opposition to cyclical and recurring. Dante was inspired by Saint Augustine’s work and the medieval Italian poet uses the same characteristics of time in his masterpiece. Time is linear, moving in a straight line from event to event, towards the future.

Saint Augustine’s theory regarding time also inspired the famous German writer, Thomas Mann. He sees time as a mystery, something that cannot be defined clearly in our limited minds. As he states in his novel called The Magic Mountain (1924), “What is time? It is a secret, lacking in substance and yet almighty.”

The same aspect of linearity was treated slightly differently by William Faulkner, a North American Nobel Prize winner in his novel called The Sound and the Fury (1929). The author talks about the “mechanical progression” of time, the ticking of clocks which measure time as it moves forward mechanically. The main character of the novel commits suicide because he realizes that time cannot be stopped and it is constantly ticking its way towards death. In his last moments he remembers his father’s words, who stated that “Clocks slay time. Time is dead as long as it is being clicked off by little wheels; only when the clock stops does time come to life.” But he eventually understands that the clocks cannot be stopped (even if he tries to smash his wristwatch), because nature has clocks that measure time and push it towards the future and implicitly annihilation.

CONCLUSION

Philosophy of time explains how music, economics, psychology, religion, art, sciences are expressions and thoughts connected in time. Music like every other expression of creativity has a cycle low and cycle high in terms of quality and quantity. Human aspiration can push creation to new peak, but the underlying mathematics of creation remains curved and driven against or by time. Good music, a cross between accident and invention depends on time for experimentation and time for inspiration. Nature a cross between determinism and disorder needs time to flourish and decay and start again. We can always have a philosophy attempting to understand the truth, why people respond to music? Why it chokes us when we hear MJ again? Science can try to work out the why. There is only one problem, beyond the mood and the mind, we will be forced to look at connections between history, economics, sciences pushing us back to the Socratic debate, “Is it TIME?”

Mukul Pal and Anna Maria Michesan

DOWLOAD THE REPORT timetriads120709

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

Share


SPACE AND TIME

If time and space are similar and space is fractalled then time fractals are not far away.

Challenging Einstein might be blasphemy, but there are a host of papers and published scientific features asking the same question. Was Einstein wrong? Even if he was wrong, what’s that got to do with markets and economics? We already talked about self similarity of research in ‘The Time Fractal’ .Physicists and economists have more in common than what is being published or talked about.  If the ongoing research proves that the thinker was wrong, it would bring old schools down and erect new institutions. Though this is not a very comfortable truth, there is nothing wrong in challenging an idea. Moreover, how much truth do we know anyway? And don’t new ideas come from old ideas? Is this not what research is about, learning from the past and unearthing the future?

So why could Einstein be wrong?

In an article in Scientific American, David Z Albert and Rivka Galchen explore the idea. Einstein talks about certainty and locality which is intuitive i.e. A cannot effect B without touching it or being next to it. Quantum mechanics says that the idea of position does not exist. Physicists say that particles related in this fashion are quantum mechanically entangled with one another.  Entanglement may connect particles irrespective of where they are, what they are and what forces they may exert on one another. This kind of intimacy is counter intuitive.

This undermines Einstein’s special theory of relativity. The idea that systems cannot be non deterministic troubled him. Even today this crucial part of Einstein’s legacy remains very much obscured. Physicist John S. Bell proved in 1964 that the actual physical world is nonlocal and Einstein’s special relativity is back in the news again.

Tim Maudlin’s book (1994) on Quantum nonlocality and relativity says that the special theory of relativity claim about the geometric structure of space and time is incorrect. The author goes ahead and proves that quantum mechanical nonlocality and special relativity cannot peacefully coexist.

Now this all might look like a scientific debate, but it’s the same debate polarizing economists, the idea of random and order, determinism – non deterministic, the debate of efficiency with inefficiency and the fluctuating curves or proportionality challenging equality.

Euclidean Triangle and fractalled space

The Euclidean triangles we have been speaking about regarding Time fractals are taken as an intrinsic assumption of models representing curved spacetime geometries. In another research by Jerzy Jurkiewicz, Renate Loll and Jan Ambjorn, the authors highlight how, Triangle meshes can efficiently approximate curved surfaces, which is why triangles are frequently used in computer animations. For spacetime, the elementary building blocks are fourdimensional generalizations of triangles, called four- simplices. It’s only now that the ideas focusing on geometry are resurfacing. This is a new trend after the intellectual community including Stephen Hawking and others said that “time is imaginary,” in both a mathematical and a colloquial sense.

Spacetime scientists have also witnessed how assembling microscopic building blocks in an essentially random manner ended up with symmetric shapes even on large scale. Jerzy Jurkiewicz, Renate Loll and Jan Ambjorn performed a diffusion process by letting a suitable analogue of an ink drop fall into the superposition of universes and watch how it spreads and is tossed around by the quantum fluctuations. Measuring the size of the ink cloud after a certain time allowed them to determine the number of dimensions in space. Evidently, a small object experiences spacetime in a profoundly different way than a large object does. To that object, the universe has something akin to a fractal structure. This implies there are no rulers and no other objects of a characteristic size that can serve as a yardstick. One possibility is that the universe becomes self-similar and looks the same on all scales below a certain threshold. If so, spacetime does not consist of strings or atoms of spacetime, but a region of infinite subdivision.

Visual conception is eternal to understanding nature, no wonder we keep remembering Euclid 2500 years later. The very idea of fractals bring scientist back to the 80-20 rule, the Pareto principle, the idea of proportionality.

So is it time or space that is fractalled and quantized?

William G. Tifft, University of Arizona suggests that in order to unify general relativity (gravitation) with the theories of quantum physics that describe fundamental particles and forces, it may be necessary to quantize space and perhaps time as well. In this scenario, time is no longer 1-dimensional! The professor observed that redshifts of galaxies seem to be quantized and registered discrete values. Redshifts of galaxies relate to the structure of time, indicating an underlying quantization. The model implies that time, like space seems to be three dimensional. The professor thinks that three dimensional time may be the fundamental matrix of the universe. In the 3 D time model, space is a local entity. Galaxies are separated in 3D time, which we have misinterpreted as separation in space.

In conclusion, Einstein’s theory of relativity introduced a new way of looking at the physical properties of the universe. The Newtonian constraints of absolute time and space were abandoned. Time and space were unified and made relative, it formed a continuum that curved and enfolded about itself. The ideas above suggest that Einstein did not see space as an extension of time and this might have lead him to an inappropriate geometric assumption.

Illusions are all around us and only time clarifies the real from the unreal. In his book ‘In Search of Time’, Dan Falk suggests that the idea of time is an illusion, Julius Caesar is still alive and everyday is a Wednesday. He also suggests that our mind plays games with us. There are a host of thinkers who are getting into understanding the connection of quantum mechanics and mind. It’s not just the human mind that plays games but even minds of birds like Scrub Jay, which showcases a conception about tomorrow. How we will understand nature is also linked to tomorrow, even if we write books refuting the idea of time.

Nobody can doubt the genius of Einstein, but to assume that genius of a man could be eternal against time is too large an assumption. The solution out of the quantum relativity quagmire is linked with time fractals, whether we travel in it or through it. The best part of travelling back in time are the stock markets, at least you know what not to do.

dowload the report timetriads280609

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

Share


The Question of Time

greenwich

We are on our way to Greenwich to see the time laboratory, the conventional origin of time. We came for business to London, but the history of the place is too big to restrict the travel to just work. For more than two years, we have addressing the issue of alternative research, challenging conventional thought, understanding sentiment and a host of other ideas. We asked many questions. But the only question that really bothers or concerns the human today is the question of time.

What’s about time that makes it so important? The answer to “When?” is priceless. When will the Sensex bottom? When will the recession end? When will Gold reach 3,000 dollars? When will Oil reach 100 dollars again? When is it a good time to enter real estate? For the wise humans, Homo sapiens, there is no wiser question than the question of “When?” The question of time and future is why we also seek astrologers and ask them similar questions. When will I become rich? Or maybe, when will I die? The latter question is considered lesser important than the former one.

Time seems like a ‘Holy Grail’, with only the human psychology standing against it. The greed and fear flaws are enough for us to even screw this up, even if we knew “when”. Knowing it is one and believing it is another. Time creates everything and works against everything. This is what Saint Augustine (Augustine’s Time) tried addressing when he answered to a disciple questions. “What was God doing when he was not creating the universe?” He said “There was no time before and after the universe”. The Saint tried explaining the profoundness of time in many of his teachings. He also said, “So, what is time? If no one asks me, I know; if I seek to explain it, I do not”.

We have been asking our own economic cycle questions knowingly and unknowingly regarding time for more than a decade now. And we are ready to take you through ‘time’ over the next few years now, maybe more. The subject is simple but comprehensive, explicitly connecting everything but implicit, broken but continuous.

If the subject was so big, then it should be widely researched and written about. We asked about books related to time across the host of book stores in London. There were just two titles. One was ‘A Brief History of Time’ by Stephen Hawking and a book with a similar title by Leofranc Holford-Strevens. The subject so big had barely two books available in London and three books talking on reading time, space and time, philosophy of time and time travel are available on the biggest online book store. How come, such a big aspect of our life and we missed it?

The Time as we see is built around many assumptions. There are assumptions of linearity, assumptions of cyclicality, assumptions of periodicity and continuity linked with time. In the epics ascribed to ‘Homer’ and dating from the 8th to 7th centuries BC the Greeks regarded ‘Chronos’ as the foundation of their culture, Chronos denoting a lapse of time. According to Strevens, “The more complex life becomes, the more sophistication is demanded of the intellect not merely to distinguish one year, month, day or subdivision of the day from other but to relate the years and so forth thus distinguished to each other”.

It’s not just economics, which has time as an underlying. But every aspect of science, philology, history, mathematics, capital market forecasting, behavioural finance has not only evolved with time but basis consequences on time. One might observe it as a uncanny coincidence, but historians work overlaps with time cyclists (Lamprecht and Strauss), Capital Market technicians connect their work with mathematicians (Robert Prechter with Fibonacci), Mathematicians and Physics talk about similar underlying ideas (Euclid, Kepler and Ohm), Economists, Physicists and Mathematicians using similar models (Modis, Stanley, Malthus, Verhulst), Linguists and Economists (Zipf and Pareto), Mathematicians and Father of Fractals Mandelbrot raising a similar idea what Elliott raised few decades earlier. Why such overlap? Is this coincidence? Or is there a connection, which no body saw till now? Is time connecting all this research from 300 BC? Time came before mathematics. It’s just that we started understanding it after we developed mathematics? Is there something bigger than mathematics? We will answer many of these questions in our thoughts ahead.

But what we can now tell you is that Excitement cycles as mentioned by Professor A L Tchijevsky recurs over time. Weather and climate cycles of a thousand years occur over time. 1960-s, 1970’s social trends are defined over time. Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, even the measurement of modern distances came through time. And we believe that time as we measure today is flawed and the lunar Indian model is a better time measurement system than the clock which came after the sun dial based system. It’s just that sun seemed brighter on the dial than the moon. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge.

Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts. Something like saying that what happened on Sensex in October 2008 is what is happening now in March, a time low. After which prices should move up for a month or two and then head into June. We can’t see as far in Jun now, whether Jun will be a higher low in Sensex or not. But at this stage it seems a high probability case. From Jun global equity should start a 12 month-15 month rise on equity worldwide, the recession respite we are looking for. Let’s see how we tread on our time forecasting journey when we hit Greenwich meridian today.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA